American Politics Discussion Thread

[MJW (ya that one)]

Updated Predictions: AK is Likely Murk. Overall rating: Tilt R

   

[MJW (ya that one)]

Looking at my Nov 23 map, the changes are:

IL: Likely-->Solid D. No "real" GOP candidate.
PA: Tilt R-->Tilt D. Dr. Oz sucks.
WI: Lean-->Likely R. Barnes Sucks.
OH: Solid-->Likely R. Vance sucks and bad polling.

It was Tilt R back then too, but a bit close to Lean R.

[Mjmd]

WI: Lean-->Likely R. Barnes Sucks.

Barnes doesn't suck, but he is black and that sadly probably still matters. In addition, he is probably a little more left than WI should* elect giving its swing status (mind you we shouldn't be electing someone as far right as Johnson to begin with). 

MIND YOU* utter piece of garbage who spread election lies and was supportive of overturning the election vs literally anybody shouldn't be a hard choice, but go go America.

[darrelljs]

The only one that Trump can beat is Biden and the only one that Biden can beat is Trump, yet that's the matchup we're going to get in 2024, isn't it?

Darrell

[Charriu]

Not if nature will prevent that

[Mjmd]

Everyone loves crapping on Biden, but between first infrastructure bill and overall* well handled foreign affairs he really hasn't been too bad. Again, he isn't who we needed and he is far from 'good', but if he wasn't ancient and had more energy / charisma I still think he will be remembered as a middling president with some notable achievements.

I'm saying this as a precursor to the question: What other moderate candidate do Democrats have to put up? Yes Republicans are literally putting up fascists, but somehow Democrats still need to put moderates to actually win. So who would even be the candidate? I'm pretty positive Bernie can't beat someone who actually tried to overthrow the foundations of our democracy. Its just a sad truth.

I know I know 2022 first though. Maybe I'll be totally wrong and 2022 will punish Republicans enough they reform their party, but I'm not particularly hopeful.

[Amicalola]

What other moderate candidate do Democrats have to put up? Yes Republicans are literally putting up fascists, but somehow Democrats still need to put moderates to actually win. So who would even be the candidate? 

Is this actually true? Like have we recently seen good evidence for this claim that the Dems must stay moderate to win? A similar one is made here sometimes, but I'm pretty skeptical of it (I'm not great with US specifics, though).

[Mjmd]

If we just had a popular vote it would not be true, but we have a lovely electoral college method where states like my own WI play a huge role and margin to win all the electoral votes can be low tens of thousands. If you had someone "scary" like Bernie run states like Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia wouldn't go Democrat for sure and even if we had popular vote I suspect you would see loses in house and senate seats as well.

[Mjmd]

You may not agree with the Cheney's just like I bet most people wouldn't agree with Andrew Jackson on most things, but damn its going to be depressing when Republicans vote her out for doing the right thing. Anti democracy candidates haven't been winning all the primaries, but there have been a non zero number (currently incumbents are getting beat 7.1% of the time vs 2.8% for Democrats). Some high profile around the country, but just a lot of local candidates too. If you aren't extreme conservative and believe Donald Trumps lies your out. Hell even Vos in WI is getting primaried and that man is a model example of far right conservative slug who has cost $1M (from the taxpayers of course) in a non independent election inquiry. But he didn't do enough fast enough or loud enough for Trump. I don't think he will actually lose, but its such a weird thing to even read. Feels like the twilight zone. Don't get me wrong any other circumstance him getting primaried out would be great.

[superdeath]

I think Dems need someone akin to Bernie or a "slightly" safer option in order to firmly get people off of a potential Biden re-election. If Biden is the primary candidate, i Guarantee that Republicans win. Even if its magically Trump again.