[PB64] Amicalola Gets To Heaven with Tarkeel and Ljubljana

[Amicalola]

T148
As per, at this point, we get a slew of diplo. Naufragar, honourably, is keen for war on the same turn as before. Superdeath, predictably, is trying to weasel his way into attacking a turn later than the rest of us (I trust the message, I think, but the message is silly). Gavagai's entire army is on our side, SD... like, literally all of it. SD could waltz in and take the Pyramids right now if he wanted to, and instead he's haggling for some tiny advantage. Oh well. Gavagai, for his part, sends what I assume(?) is a series of threats about Get To Heaven. I think it's threats because he moved his entire stack here:


I don't think he can take it on the interturn (~1% chance with optimistic promotions; in fairness that's much higher than his axeman streak earlier ), and I doubt he wants to get slammed by our catapults, so at least for this turn I'm not worried. Gavagai could definitely still wreck our game, but he's got to defend against two other people too, in theory. He does have crossbows! 


I suppose the Pyramids engineer bulbed Machinery instead of rushing a wonder. Clever play.  Still, I'm not really trying to take cities here, just slow Gav down for a combination of revenge and long-term strategy. It's beautiful when those things align. As I mentioned, if I hadn't sent the diplo earlier, I think this war is a pretty bad idea. I outscale Gavagai, and I don't need him as an enemy when he's offering friendship. But the idea of pissing SD and especially Naufragar off in such an volatile diplomatic environment just seems like as bad an idea, and I don't like breaking deals regardless. Time will tell if I'm wrong.

Commodore made peace with Ginger while the latter launched a second GA. Uh oh...

We turn on tech for Metal Casting this turn! We get it exactly to the beaker.


We are the last team to acquire such an advanced tech. Speaking of which, I have some thoughts on no cottages, that have been gathering throughout the game. The whole experiment has been really interesting so far. I'll bring it up properly when I have time.

[Amicalola]

T149 - Pre-war Intermezzo 
Gavagai sent his usual 'friends please' messages. We ignore them. Sorry Gavagai, you just weren't as fast with your scheming as Naufragar and SD were.   I have to admit, a part of me is also taking satisfaction at giving Gavagai the same treatment he gave me 25 turns ago. Not so fun being on the receiving end of radio silence, is it? Although, the more I think about it, the more this war makes sense again anyway. Gavagai is starting to get some pretty impressive numbers - between that, his Machinery bulb, and a possible Serfdom revolt (he's not yet launched a GA, and his land, even more than Ginger's, is nuts for Serfdom), he could actually be the favourite to win right now. Or at least close behind the emerging monster that is Ginger. Which is pretty incredible, when you consider just how many wars he's fought.

Most cities start forges. I'm just playing defense/tie-up for this war, unless SD really gets crazy in the east, so I'm not building up many more units than I already have. Meanwhile, I noticed that Ginger is not working this river windmill in a Serfdom GA.


Ginger is a very good player and I do not mean to mock him. Instead, I just wonder what he's doing instead. Great People points from a specialist? They would have to be pretty crucial to avoid that tile.

Any requests for the T150 overview?

[Amicalola]

T150 Overview
We're building forges in almost all of our cities now, despite declaring war this turn. This is because I still want to try and win some longshot victory, and the only way to do that is being very greedy. We may, of course, be punished severely for this. It's a risk I'm willing to take. But I hope not. 

The Core


All the best cities are here. Warm Healer and Blast Doors are basically paying for our empire, while Dreadsprings is growing quite nice due to repeated whips. Distant Past will be perpetually stuck at Size 5 until Civil Service, and To The Blade is it's usual, slow, dependable self. 

The South


A war-torn, battered place. Get To Heaven remains one of the strongest cities on the map, but repeated whips have been pretty brutal. The Wheel really, really hurt to lose; hundreds of hammers of infrastructure and hundreds of gold/beakers lost there. I'm still not quite over it. Otherwise, Regret continues to impress (relative to its land) and Fever Dream is getting the basic infrastructure out. 

The East


The latest addition to the empire. These cities contribute almost nothing in MFG, but the island is singlehandedly keeping our entire economy afloat. As they get Courthouses and Forges out though, the Eastern peninsula cities are starting to get quite strong. The old New Reptiles was another really good city, losing it hurt a lot. 

Demographics


Not looking great. The short version of my conclusions about no cottages is that they're not as good as people think, but they are better than I thought at the beginning of this game. After about T100 I still think they're overrated, but I've got a new appreciation for their necessity before that point. Anyway, GNP be bad, MFG be bad, we'll just have to hope that food and greed pay off. Part of the problem is probably also that I've been whipping so much; note our population at 6th. This is partly temporary, whipping Forges and Courthouses, and partly a quirk of playstyle that works better with the traits I prefer (slower, lategame traits). It's worth noting as something to adapt for PB66, where I also have two very early traits.

The big story in the graphs recently has been Ginger's dominance (two GAs and Serfdom will do that) and Gavagai's comeback. I'd say Gavagai is distinctly ahead of us now, second in most categories (with first being in a GA, too) and I don't know if we actually do outscale him due to the Pyramids and Serfdom. No cottages, as mentioned, has been worse than I was expecting. If we were to be left alone for 50 turns, we'd be in a comfortable position (probably true of most players in a given civ game). I'd say there's about a zero percent chance of that happening.

[Amicalola]

T152
Very interesting turn today. Naufragar and Gavagai fought a large battle, with Naufragar getting two(!) great generals and Gavagai also getting one. But what made that even more interesting was the diplomacy that followed. Gavagai, as usual, asked for white peace, which I, as usual, declined (he also offered one with Naufragar war, which is more interesting now that he has a reason to mean it). Naufragar, meanwhile, sent fish/fish and 1 gold on his end. We're already at peace, but that's the main fish/fish meaning, so it's hard to interpret. All I can think of is that he intends to be at peace with Gavagai in 1 turn and he's telling me that, but it seems weird that he'd tell me that. Surely he'd want me to attack before he offers the peace? Gavagai is probably offering him peace every turn, the same as me, so maybe he's telling me he'll accept next turn. I'm confused, but I'll tentatively assume that for now (and we'll know if I'm wrong pretty quickly). The main alternative I can see is that he plans to end our fish/fish next turn, but him telling me that is so ludicrous that I can't imagine that's right.



Meanwhile, on Gavagai's western flank, we've been waiting... and waiting... and waiting for Superdeath to join the war. Based on Gav's power graph (lower than mine, while his stack is comparable), Gavagai's west should be relatively open, and we know SD's stack is pretty strong! Furthermore, what Gavagai has left after whatever happened with Naufragar seems to still be angled towards Nauf and myself, with some HAs at Nicholas II and a large 1-mover stack remaining in Lenin.


And luckily for Superdeath, he's joining the war right on time for T150...   oh, sorry, T151...    or apparently T152?  Wait, you mean T153(???).  Sorry if that was confusing, I was just listing all the turns that SD's promised to finally join, For Real™ this time.  Meanwhile, I can't find his Numidian stack anywhere, other than that I know it's not on the border with Gavagai, and his WEs/catapults are still two turns away. Yeah, I don't think SD's joining this one guys. Disappointing. 

After the Gav/Nauf battle, part of me wants to start attacking, but I also don't see how that could end well for us. I think we can probably take Lenin, at least, if we advance. Maybe Nicholas II as well. But based on my own play (which I think is pretty representative), the second Gavagai thinks he can't win anymore he whips to the absolute fucking ground, and we can't fight that, especially not without Superdeath. To advance we'd need to keep whipping units, which we just can't afford. Gavagai has also started building catapults finally (he's been starving his cities for huge GNP, Cairo-style), which makes this doubly true. So in the end, I decided to reoffer Gavagai peace. Now that it seems SD is stringing us along, my upside for staying in this war is minimal, even if I've misinterpreted the diplo from Naufragar. Gavagai's taken some hits while Naufragar's gained a city, evening out the players in our area. They may also have bad blood over Alexander III now (what a crazy life that poor city's had! ), which could work to my advantage. I think now's the time.

Amicalola Gets Needlessly Righteously Offended By Weak Loan Requests
Ginger also requested a loan of 115 gold for 13gpt (130 total). 


Uh, 'fuck no' is about the only response I can think of for that one. I mean, how could giving Ginger, the favourite, an extra turn of 'x valuable tech' possibly be worth 15 measly gold to me? I won't even see a return for 10 turns anyway - I will actually lose money in the short term. I really value loans, as I think I mentioned earlier this game, but at least I try to pay back an appropriate percentage. I wanted to send him back an offer of 120 for 160 gold, but he wasn't making any money in the diplo screen. Anyway, this offer was insultingly low.

[Tarkeel]

My take on the fish/fish, 1 gold: He'll declare a phony war on you in one turn?

[Amicalola]

My take on the fish/fish, 1 gold: He'll declare a phony war on you in one turn?

Oh shit, you're totally right. That makes so much more sense than what I was thinking. Fuck.

[Tarkeel]

Might also be indication of when SD declares.

[Amicalola]

Might also be indication of when SD declares.

I think that's possible, but less likely than either of our other theories. If Nauf thinks SD is attacking next turn, he's not scouting the Carthaginian stacks at all. But maybe he's just wrong?

[wills]

My take on the fish/fish, 1 gold: He'll declare a phony war on you in one turn?

Oh shit, you're totally right. That makes so much more sense than what I was thinking. Fuck.

What does a phony way mean? ...as compared to a normal war...

[Mjmd]

A phony war is usually a player declaring war to try to trick a different player into thinking they are safe.