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(August 6th, 2022, 15:40)superdeath Wrote: I think Dems need someone akin to Bernie or a "slightly" safer option in order to firmly get people off of a potential Biden re-election. If Biden is the primary candidate, i Guarantee that Republicans win. Even if its magically Trump again.
Someone like Fetterman could do very well.
"I know that Kilpatrick is a hell of a damned fool, but I want just that sort of man to command my cavalry on this expedition."
- William Tecumseh Sherman
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I actually think Trump is the 1 person Biden could beat. I mean assuming the people being elected into office that are ok with Republicans overthrowing elections don't try to do anything to overthrow the election. But yes if Trump somehow isn't the 2024 candidate and its some other random far right candidate (0% chance Republicans choose a moderate) I don't know if Biden has a shot. Mind you I'm not sure if he runs again if it isn't Trump.
Is Fetterman a good future presidential candidate? I don't know a ton about. I know Democrats need one long term assuming we still have a functioning democracy.
BTW looking forward to Milwaukee being turned into maga idiot central in 2024 !
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Ok assuming my wildest dreams come true and Republicans reject far right fascist nationalism in both the short and longer term, who do Republicans have that would be untainted?
Paul Ryan has spoken up (if not super loud) against Trumps coup attempt. Mind I could just be WI focused. Obviously, assuming Republicans are saved from themselves Cheney could be an obvious candidate too. Weird turns of the world, 2 years ago I don't think you would get a lot of moderates voting for her, but 2028 its her vs some far left candidate I could see it. With both there is a certain amount of looking moderate by comparison.
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Some on the left seem to be advocating for Katie Porter, the californian congresswoman. Both Sanders and Warren are too old now, and people like AOC are a bit too young.
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AOC is also too immature politically. She has an easy base to cater to and doesn’t bother to reach beyond. Desantis by contrast calculates everything at the national level. Meanwhile Katie Porter won a historically Republican district. She would be an excellent candidate.
Darrell
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(August 6th, 2022, 19:57)Mjmd Wrote: Ok assuming my wildest dreams come true and Republicans reject far right fascist nationalism in both the short and longer term, who do Republicans have that would be untainted?
Mitt Romney? Despite seemingly having been around forever, he's (slightly) younger than either Trump or Biden. And he was the only Republican senator with the courage to vote for conviction after Trump's second impeachment. A low bar, indeed.
Adam Kinzinger? He's gotten lots of exposure from his spot on the January 6 commission.
August 7th, 2022, 17:09
(This post was last modified: August 7th, 2022, 17:10 by Miguelito.)
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As someone with a limited stake (everybody is to some extent affected by who the US prez is) and no say anyways:
Is the stock of bland middle aged Dem senators really depleted? Someone like Klobuchar? I mean, that's what you'd assume the DNC would push assuming they recognize the folly of running with a 83 year old guy?
As much as Bernie seems admirable, running with a 83 year old is folly (honestly he was too old in 2016, but apparently the only one capable of bringing out that kind of message at the time?)
The leftie candidates brought up here are two second term congresswomen and a lieutenant governor, hopefully soon to be first term senator, is that right? Is that the kind of experience that gets you through the primary and GE? I fear you'll end up with some bland middle aged senator.
Overaging seems to be an issue for the Dems in particular. I read a comment somewhere (reddit I fear) that someone like Dianne Feinstein is better understood as a brand rather than a politician. Crucially, there is a team of 20 people all specialized in politicking, who are all out of a job if she retires, so they make sure she doesn't. Probably has to do with the strong personalization in the US system. If the show is run rather by the parties the apparatus has less problems of exchanging a candidate. Interestingly Americans online are usually complaining about the parties being too powerful, but I have a hinch that the observed polarization is rather a function of personalization that's inevitable with FPTP.
Side note, I was of course happy for Amica about your election result, but had to note how unacceptable I would find having a government resting on less than a third of the votes cast.
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(August 7th, 2022, 01:44)AdrienIer Wrote: Some on the left seem to be advocating for Katie Porter, the californian congresswoman. Both Sanders and Warren are too old now, and people like AOC are a bit too young.
Wrong Californian. If Biden doesn't run because of age, then the nomination will probably come down to Harris vs. Newsom. And primarying Biden is not going to go well for that person - the white left isn't nearly big enough to beat a candidate who'd have massive margins with white moderates and Black voters, and Biden would likely still win Hispanic voters, too.
Bernie is a year older than Biden, age won't help him. Warren wasn't good enough in 2020, and I don't see how she'd be a better fit in 2024, whereas Harris being VP means she's not the same candidate she was in 2019 (see: Biden). Buttigieg could run, but unless he solves his abysmal performance with Black voters, he doesn't have a chance, either.
GOP will nominate either Trump or DeSantis unless they have a really bad midterm (538 gives DeSantis a 6% chance of losing vs Charlie Crist - and in that scenario, Dems hold/gain seats in the House and pick up a few Senate seats; there could be an appetite for a change in the GOP if that happened). Dems have a 20-33% chance of holding the House depending on which of 538's model you use, that's not asking for much, and momentum is currently on their side.
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Don't look now, Democrats are about to pass their 2nd major piece of legislation. If it wasn't for inflation, Biden would be having a pretty good presidency. I really think between his age and stutter he just isn't as visible as we've come to expect presidents to be. Trump pretty much proved it doesn't matter what you say as long as you get on the news a lot.
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(August 7th, 2022, 19:04)Mjmd Wrote: Don't look now, Democrats are about to pass their 2nd major piece of legislation. If it wasn't for inflation, Biden would be having a pretty good presidency. I really think between his age and stutter he just isn't as visible as we've come to expect presidents to be. Trump pretty much proved it doesn't matter what you say as long as you get on the news a lot.
Agreed - and inflation is global, but the President gets the good and the bad.
Between Republican overreach and Dems actually getting stuff done despite a 50-50 Senate relying on Manchin and Sinema (D-Hedge Funds), I'm way more optimistic than I was even a few weeks ago.
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