[PB64] naufragar's bingo parlor for assassins

[naufragar]

Well, enough turns have passed without me attacking that I just had to attack today, no matter the sense.




Amica's fleet can't quite reinforce Fever Dreams, but he can attack my stack with the transported units. There are also likely reinforcements in New Wheels.

I've pulled some units off garrison duty despite their cities being under threat of amphibious landing. Who knows if my 4 cities on the inner sea still have enough units to survive. I also left only a token force in Yue-Chi, but if that city falls, I don't lose much. It has a +3food surplus and nothing else.

Amica has a lot of power unaccounted for. You can see in the West I left a note for myself wondering where his 12 cats went. He's also got some cannons I have yet to spot. He also has enough money to upgrade the catapults and archers in Fever Dream into their more annoying variants. Too much uncertainty to predict anything. Don't know what's on the boats. Don't know what's in range. Maybe I just threw a ton of units away. But maybe I didn't. We shall see. Any action feels like progress. I guess I've been so down so goddam long, it looks like up to me.

[naufragar]

I was kind of enjoying the civ vacation. Oh well. Back to the mire.

Amica mostly emptied Fever Dream, leaving only a token force, so I tried to take it as cheaply as possible. Pic unrelated. 



But brute force won the day, and the city burned. I wasn't sure if I should move up to one of the flat tiles immediately. Instead I moved to the hill.


It looks like I spotted Amica's collateral stack. I honestly have no idea what the best play is here. So I'm just going to ramble.

Amica's side of the choke has been a massive pain since the start of the game. It's perfectly defensible with safe food. My side...was not. And that terrain is brutal: I have to step onto flatland within cannon range before I step onto a hill. I need to run the numbers, but even if the numbers look good, remember: I have no clue what extra units Amica has in the fog. Between this turn and the last, Amica's power increased by 25k even after losing Fever Dream. My power decreased by 5k, so even as I burn Amica's cities, the power differential between him and me grows.

Amica got a Great General fighting Superdeath, which really worries me. As horrific luck would have it, that Great General was born in New Wheels. From there, I'm pretty sure it joined Amica's fleet in the Cursed Inner Sea. This has just gotta be trouble.

Speaking of trouble, in 4 turns, my peace treaty with Ginger ends. It doesn't look like he's planning an attack:


But my eastern seaboard is defenseless. Is he angry enough at my backstab to backstab me back when I'm fighting Amica? I have no idea. If I were in his shoes, I honestly don't know what I'd do.

For what it's worth, safety from Ginger has allowed Commodore to move his army to join mine. Unfortunately, a mess of Catapults and Guerilla-promoted units can't really cross the flatland killing zone in front of Amica's cannons. I'm not sure how we can coordinate besides just throwing bodies at Amica. Who knows, maybe Superdeath can stage a breakout somewhere else.

Man. If this feels like a whirlwind report, it's because PB64 is a whirlwind game. After suckerpunching Ginger, I have to be on my guard against him, but that attack likely cemented Comm and my mutual aggression against Amica and vivified Superdeath. And now Amica is attacked on every front and now has fewer cities than Superdeath! But has the army and terrain to likely hold off all comers while using his brutally strong intercontinental trade routes to tech to some doomsday weapon. What a game.

[Charriu]

Fun fact. You were only able to raze FeverDream because you gave it to Amicalola in a diplo deal. That eliminated all your culture there, which normally prevents razing

[Mjmd]

If I were in his shoes, I honestly don't know what I'd do.

  I know what you would do!

But to be fair what you would do isn't necessarily what someone else will do.

[naufragar]

  I know what you would do!

Calculate the optimal path to victory using rational and empathetic means?

Fun fact. You were only able to raze FeverDream because you gave it to Amicalola in a diplo deal. That eliminated all your culture there, which normally prevents razing

Of course. All part of the plan.

This turn was uneventful, or, said another way, this was another turn Amica had to regroup and plan a new attack.


I'm waiting for Commodore's troops to join up, but I don't see a happy outcome to this. Amica's collateral shreds mine. I haven't simmed it yet with Commodore's forces on the same tile.

Here's the overall situation


Amica has top power and a chain of three cities that any invader can't get past. Superdeath likely can't make any advance on the water. He doesn't have the naval tech. I'd hope that Superdeath could brute force his way through Software Man, but I very much doubt it: Amica has more power than me, and what he's using to hold off Comm and me in the North leaves plenty to halt SD.

[naufragar]

"You are about to embark upon the Great Crusade, toward which we have striven these many months. The eyes of the world are upon you. The hope and prayers of liberty-loving people everywhere march with you. In company with our brave Allies and brothers-in-arms on other Fronts, you will bring about the destruction of the Persian war machine, the elimination of Amicalolan tyranny over the oppressed peoples of PB64, and security for ourselves in a free world."


Time to roll some dice. Commodore and my armies have linked up and we now advance across the soggy fields under heavy cannon fire. Can we make the trenches on the other side? Only God knows. Our units have very low combat strength, which makes them especially susceptible to collateral, but Comm is bringing some 30+ catapults to try to soak up the collat hits. Out of our hands now.

Ginger has a front row seat. He's also buzzing my borders with a Privateer, although that may be in response to my caravel buzzing his. He sees that Comm and I have bent everything we have to reining in the runaway. If he doesn't want to keep playing PB64, he can end the game single-handedly. On the other hand, if he's feeling apathetic, he might just wait to see the outcome of this.

One thing's for certain: life's too short for me to sim this out. 

[naufragar]

I had considered that Amica had enough worker labor to build an immediate canal to hit the Allied forces with his marines from the inner sea. I had considered it. I just didn't really think he had the worker labor in range.

He did. He attacked the Allied stack. Comm played his turn and fired back with his massive artillery force. (38 catapults. He lost 20.)

This is what I opened the turn up to:


Amica has 7 cannons and 36 hitters in various states of distress. Comm and I have 8 cannons, 28 cats, and 42 hitters in our stack, also in various states of distress. Since Comm moves first, he basically sets the pace. I have to follow what he does or we get split up and die piecemeal. He stood and fought, so I had to. Bite the bullet:



Since Amica moved his marines, my coastal regiments could join the fight. Amica lost 3 cannon and 19 hitters. The main Allied stack lost 1 cannon, 5 cats, and 3 hitters. This felt like a victory, but it's not yet decisive. Amica can promo-heal first and finish off the wounded. He can retreat to the hill 1N of his stack and immediately build another fort, and my coastal units would have to slog through hills for another turn. Have I ever mentioned how defensible this terrain is?  But this was a good turn. Hopefully his counter-punch doesn't do much damage.


Next turn, my peace treaty with Ginger expires:


I had debated giving him something. Open Borders, a clam, I don't know. But I decided against it. I also thought about sending Superdeath an iron for iron to encourage him to stay at war, but also thought better of that. Let's let the chips fall where they may.

As for us, we will continue through bloody force of will.







Amica took a heavy hit. I'm committed to seeing Commodore's sanguine sacrifice produce results. So help me Heaven.

[naufragar]

No! No no no. Not like this.


Last turn, Amica took and kept a large city from Superdeath and now Commodore wants to open a second front, in the opposite direction, across the water, against a rival at tech parity, who is checked out of the game and doesn't have any energy? WHY?!? Oh it's all falling apart in front of my eyes. I told him I'd try to join a war against Ginger in 7 turns, but who knows if I really can.

I've lost too many ships trying to clean up my inner sea:


Yes, this was an unlucky outcome, but after this game and PB59, I'm used to Amica having brutal naval luck. Once I destroy these ships, my core cities can stop starving.

But what in the world do I have to throw at Ginger? My navy is trashed and every unit I have is attacking Amica. Amica just revolted to slavery. Commodore, my man, he could whip out a 40 cannon army and still have a greater empire population than us... We have the advantage. Now is really, really not the time to take the foot off the gas.

We'll likely burn one more city next turn (New Wheels). After that, I predict the offensive stalls.


Amica just has too much food and too much pop, and whipping Cannons in this era is just too strong. I've moved a mounted force to threaten Get to Heaven. This was the plan last turn. Good job Amica pulling Cherry's garrison back to defend. Without it, his Heroic Epic city likely would've fallen. As it is, it's very close with the units visible. After Amicalola pulls in his extra garrison units, we won't be able to take the city.

This is what I mean about needing to push the advantage. Ok, we ravaged Amica's army. He has food and slavery, so he can rebuild. What damage have we done? Took one city? The land that put him in first place is still in tact. If we back off, he heals up faster than us and is still winning. 

Here's the finance screen:


Ouch that Unit Supply hurts so bad, but if I don't have units attacking Amica, he just techs away to victory. Org is saving me 45 gold per turn. Ok. Amica has 16 cities. 1 intercontinental route gives him +16 gpt. That's before Protective, Harbors, Markets. Amica has three islands, each of which grant five intercontinental routes.

Land doesn't matter. Burning cities doesn't matter. Great Lighthouse + 3 island cities can power his entire economy, regardless of anything else. (Put another way, my entire Organized trait contributes less gold per turn than one of Amica's island cities.) So I hope you can understand I'm not eager to let Amica rebuild and to march in the opposite direction against the guy who plays 5 minute turns every 3 days.

[naufragar]

Whether the "you" is me or Amica, I leave as an exercise for the reader. Amica whipped away 63 pop. For reference, in my entire empire, I only have 87 pop...  He basically just whipped away my entire empire... and he still has more pop points than me (104 to my 87...). That's how titanically strong Amica is compared to the rest of the field. Remember, I'm 2nd in Crop. But we've definitely drawn blood. On the other hand, Amica's empire is still way, way stronger than anybody else's, and it would be a terrible blunder to let him off the hook.

Amica offered New Wheels to me for peace. He intimated in the tech thread that he would offer two cities, but Superdeath took one of his offerings between the sending and receiving of his diplo:


Good for Superdeath. Little opportunistic snipes, one perhaps at my expense, but I don't really mind, so long as he stays in the fight. He's got essentially no strength, but any pressure is good. (Amica emptied these cities to defend against me. While SD is still at war, Amica must give up territory to shift those Western units East.)


Since Amica removed his anti-Superdeath garrisons to defend Get to Heaven, it's possible he has enough units to really shred my knight stack.


Nothing for it. Have to make him prove it.

Comm sent some more diplo about attacking Ginger but I can't understand it. He offered two of his cities with a 2 turn timer but 3 of his cities with a 5 turn timer, all for my help in 7 turns? I echoed back the 5 turn. I need time to rebuild my navy. I likely can't send ground troops, but I could perhaps pin Ginger's navy.

[Mjmd]

Sees PBSPY. DEMANDS REPORT!!!