[PB64] naufragar's bingo parlor for assassins

[naufragar]

JR4, thestick, I’m glad you heed the maxim Sanguis Pro Gratia Sanguinis. It seems Gav needs convincing.

Nauf, I have a different perspective, I think Amica's decision not to build cottages was simply dumb and the only reason his economy looks so good is that no one else bothered to build a real economy - people preferred to fight endless wars with no decisive outcomes.

I can’t speak to the other players’ wars, since I don’t know them, but I stand by every war I started except one (the Second Amicalolan War). The series of wars against you got me some 4 additional cities and a safe southwest region. The war against Ginger got Comm on my side versus Amica. And most of the wars against Amica were necessary.

Here’s the food graph again:


It’s not all about commerce. With that much food, it doesn’t matter what he does. Over the course of this game, I’ve burned 6 Amicalolan cities. I'll also take indirect credit for Superdeath taking another 4. Two of these for sure; two debatable. (Amica in turn has taken 4 from me, by treaty or force.) If I didn’t separate Amica from those 10 cities, if I didn’t force military builds from him, how different is this game? Can I, with my land, out-build Amica? (I think that’s an obvious “no.” But perhaps you disagree.) And if I can’t out-build him and if I don’t fight him, doesn’t he just win? [Pseudo-edit: Good grief. Amica's lost 10 cities and he's still winning. Damn me.]

I suspect your comment has Ginger, Superdeath, and Commodore in the background. I can’t speak to their wars. All I know is that every single war of mine has been successful in reducing a top 3 rival (you, Ginger) or has been in the cause of stopping the runaway (Amica).

As far as economic strategy, my economy was great! I beat my neighbors to knights. I beat everyone to Astro. And then I beat everybody but Ginger to cannons. I used Darius and Sumeria to get out to a tech lead and I tried to use that tech lead to gain a decisive edge. I failed, but I failed on the battlefield. I talked about this at the time, but once Amica got Courthouses, my only advantage evaporated. Org isn’t getting me even a fraction of the money Amica gets from PRO ICTR routes (even before the Great Lighthouse). My only advantage was speed from the earlier courthouses.

As a counter-example, look at Ginger. The guy had a top 3 economy. He was first to Steel, which isn’t cheap. Grabbed a bunch of other techs first. Got his viscera ripped out.

We can be sad that PB64 has turned into a knife-fight in the gutter, but we’re long past the lofty, Sulllan days of single-player until Liberalism.

[Mjmd]

We can be sad that PB64 has turned into a knife-fight in the gutter

Who said the lurkers were sad? This is going to win game of the year at Realms and I don't think its close!

[Tarkeel]

I loved your war overivew. I'll have to compile a list like that for all future games.

[pindicator]

Yeah, I have to second Mjmd here. This game is amazing and your posts have me coming back daily to see what twists are in store next.

[naufragar]

Thanks, all. I lurked silently for years before posting, let alone playing, so I try to repay some of that entertainment by reporting. I didn't play a game until 2017, hadn't made an account until 2012, but I started in 2010 with FFH PBEM 1. I remember stumbling across these threads, which combined awesome narrative with careful mechanics discussion (and a dollop of interpersonal acidity), and just binging for hours. Pocketbeetle's FFH1, Sullla's PB2, Krill's PB5, everything by Commodore, Bobchillingsworth (RIP), and so many others. I didn't come to RB for Civ4 BtS. It was the other way around: RB reporting was what got me playing Civ4 again.

We can be sad that PB64 has turned into a knife-fight in the gutter

Who said the lurkers were sad?

I'm of two minds about this. Because I'm just an angry man in a feather headdress, I love all the war, but it's incontrovertible that Civ4 blossoms as the game goes on. Players get more choices and more goals. Do you go for first-to techs (Econ, Liberalism, Communism, Fascism)? Do you drop Slavery for a different civic? How do you manage late game great people? What do you prioritize now that cities have multiple options for buildings? The later the game goes, the more and more interesting choices appear. It's a marvel of game design. So at least part of me is sad to be stuck at the level of "thump the other guy before you get thumped."

[Tarkeel]

I'm of two minds about this. Because I'm just an angry man in a feather headdress, I love all the war, but it's incontrovertible that Civ4 blossoms as the game goes on. Players get more choices and more goals. Do you go for first-to techs (Econ, Liberalism, Communism, Fascism)? Do you drop Slavery for a different civic? How do you manage late game great people? What do you prioritize now that cities have multiple options for buildings? The later the game goes, the more and more interesting choices appear. It's a marvel of game design. So at least part of me is sad to be stuck at the level of "thump the other guy before you get thumped."

As Krill is likely to pop in and say, we really should play a later-era start someday.
Also, RB is what got me back into Civ4 again as well, it had been years since my last game when I stepped up to dedlurk Amica in PB56.

[Qgqqqqq]

Thanks, all. I lurked silently for years before posting, let alone playing, so I try to repay some of that entertainment by reporting. I didn't play a game until 2017, hadn't made an account until 2012, but I started in 2010 with FFH PBEM 1. I remember stumbling across these threads, which combined awesome narrative with careful mechanics discussion (and a dollop of interpersonal acidity), and just binging for hours. Pocketbeetle's FFH1, Sullla's PB2, Krill's PB5, everything by Commodore, Bobchillingsworth (RIP), and so many others. I didn't come to RB for Civ4 BtS. It was the other way around: RB reporting was what got me playing Civ4 again.

I know the feeling. I didn't play Civ4 at all until RB introduced me to it.

[naufragar]

I know the feeling. I didn't play Civ4 at all until RB introduced me to it.

I wonder how recent the newest player to Civ4 brought to the game by RB is. Civ4's 17 years old, after all.

Opened the turn up to this diplo from Ginger:


150 gold is a pittance, and I likely would've taken it, but I checked the Foreign Advisor first:



Ah. My Pact Brother, Commodore, is at war. So I'm at war, too.

(By the way, Amica is still creating muchos soldados. He has retaken #1 power. I hope none of those find their way towards Commodore.)

Superdeath pulled back from his proposed city plant:


I've re-offered the free luxuries. Hope that's all taken care of.

I've got plans to deal with Ginger, plans to improve my economy, plans to defend against Amica, but they all take turns I don't have. Priority right now is wresting back control of the seas from Ginger. Then we'll see what happens.

[naufragar]

Superdeath pulled back from his proposed city plant.

I've re-offered the free luxuries. Hope that's all taken care of.

Guess not.



Superdeath did not back off from his original plant because he saw it would annoy me. No, no. Instead, he moved his plant to a spot that's much, much worse, since it has no first ring food. It is, however, now on a hill. This tells us that Superdeath knows that I don't like his plant, but he would rather prepare to defend it from me rather than respecting my wishes (and my gift of free luxuries) and just not settling. My mind boggles. "Naufragar doesn't like this. I'll try to make sure he can't go to war to take it." Brother, I don't have to attack you to make you lose. All I have to do is stop defending against Amica, and you are boned.

The second thing this screenshot tells us is that Amica is 2 turns away from Grenadiers and Ships of the Line. I've already conceded the northern seas to Amica, so Ships of the Line are no scarier than his Frigates. On the other hand, protective Grenadiers and his recently whipped Cannons can chew through my current forces. He'll beat me to Military Science by 5 turns. 5 turns is a long time.

As mentioned previously, Superdeath seems to think that he can compete economically with Amicalola. Let's go with "fatally optimistic."



Superdeath is currently researching. He's still over 14,000 beakers behind Amica but maybe he'll get a tech soon. Maybe it'll even be Muskets in time for Amica's Grens. Military Science is another 3000 beakers to add to Superdeath's deficit. Fatal optimism. Emphasis on the "fatal."

Most of my posts have been big picture diplo, so let's see if the lurkers have any appetite for an episode of Math with Naufragar:



Amica's GNP is 403. Rival Worst is 115. Rival Average is 211. Let's assume Rival Worst is not Superdeath. The average GNP of the two rivals who are neither best (Amica) nor worst (not Superdeath) is ((4*211)-(403+211))/2=163. So Superdeath and one other rival's average GNP is 163. The distance of either of these players from the average cannot be greater than 48, because then one would be worse than the Rival Worst. Therefore, the absolute highest GNP Superdeath can have right now is 163+48=211. Superdeath is currently making 0gpt, so he's researching. Let's assume Amicalola is researching full blast. (I would be even more depressed otherwise.) Perhaps Superdeath isn't researching at 100%, but I bet he is.

So Superdeath's research rate is only 50% of Amicalola's. But wait it gets better. Amicalola is currently paying SD 80gpt, so after 10 turns, there's a 160gpt swing. Amica's GNP would be at 483 and SD's at 131. Amica's true research rate is over three and a half times greater than Superdeath's. (After Amica had already whipped away 80+ pop points.) (And Amica has a 14000 beaker headstart.)

And Superdeath wants to play the econ game. Delusional Fatally optimistic.

[naufragar]

Let's assume Amicalola is researching full blast. (I would be even more depressed otherwise.)

Amica's gold stockpile went up by +4, so he's only using break-even research, so his real research rate is even better than what it looks like now. And to add insult to injury, I forgot to actually turn on tech last turn.  Well, I own my mistakes. Now Amica's going to beat me to Grenadiers by 6 turns.  Bad, bad news.

Here's the GNP graphs:


Remember a few things: 1) Amica had whipped 80 pop and will soon regrow thanks to his amazingly fertile land. 2) He is researching at breakeven, so he could be pushing this even higher. 3) He's paying 80gpt to Superdeath, and that payment will end soon. 

I need some levity, but I don't know where I'll find it in this game. Oh wait.


HAHAHAHA      Oh man. I opened the turn up to this and almost spat out my morning coffee. Superdeath, why would I want a garbage city you founded without access to first ring food resources? I swear with this guy there is never, ever any thought about the other person in a diplomatic exchange. Yes, SD, I know your maintenance costs suck. No, I don't particularly feel the need to pay you 100 gold for a boondoggle you never should have founded and that I in fact warned you against. 

Joke #2:


What's that? The massive culture of Amicalola's Heroic Epic fortress that secures the entire north of this continent is causing your cheaply-sniped cities to rebel and be unproductive? Sure wish there had been some way to deal with that cultural pressure. HAHAHAHAH Shoot me.