You're right of course. I just can't help feeling that we're missing an opportunity looking at that power graph. And while sniping Blue Moon wouldn't gain us a city - it's not defendable - the hill we originally planned for the 2nd city is a much better spot than a pure filler I planned W of the spices
That said, there's value in having a neighbour with weak military and not worrying about an attack from that side. Also, as I said, we're already paying unit maintenance, we can't afford building many more units. We need to be ready to defend from Thoth's attack, which is 100% incoming, but also get to building granaries and libraries. A granary in Gruul Smash is still our only infrastructure building
Regarding Thoth losing a city. I must have misread the demos a while back. Thoth does not have a city besides the capital
Rival's worst pop is 21k - a size 3 city
The first prae is out this turn (Thoth's power increase is 7k, which is consistent with 8k for a prae - 1k for double whip)
Immediate plans: capital will continue on the granary, and whip it with overflow into library. Gruul Smash I will let grow into unhappiness for a couple turns, goal there is to double whip a spear (because I'm pretty sure Thoth has been building chariots) into a chariot to clean up his axe. Bowman about to finish in Big Red Dragons will go to See-Scape as an extra defender. I would also like to get a second spearman into the stack near See-Scape, not 100% sure where best to build it yet. Probably in See-Scape itself, whipping as soon as the city grows to 2. Big Red Dragons should grow to be able to work the pasture and the gold
Up to date screenshot (not much changed)
Research-wise, going to backfill Sailing (Gruul Smash and See-Scape can definitely benefit from lighthouses with that lake between them, honestly Big Red Dragons as well, it merely has a 4-food seafood currently). Then I'm still choosing between HBR or Priesthood-Monarchy. Both are expensive, but both are essential - just not sure which one is essential sooner. Leaning Monarchy
So he's got 1 praet out so far. It looks like his worker is chopping into a second. Then, I assume he'll be able to whip out a third once he grows back to size 4. Our stack on the forest is currently evenly matched with his on the gold. Once he gets 2 praets, he can blow our stack on the forest up, hopefully at the cost of those 2 praets, but its not guaranteed. (We've got 3 axes and 1 spear there, right?) We absolutely cannot take a fight defending See-Scape. Thoth can just attack with only the praets and never lose a unit.
How sure are you that Thoth's building chariots? Animal Husbandry+Iron Working is 12,000 soldier points, and in the last graph you posted we were 9000 points ahead of him. So subtracting his tech from that graph (and discounting pop) we were 21,000 points ahead of him. Which is roughly 4 bowmen, and it looks like we match him in Bronze units. Perhaps I'm misreading something. Don't know where the chariots would be, though.
Let me be a doomsday prophet about Agg praets. Without a numbers advantage, we cannot beat them, period. In fact, we only get odds on a praet when we're defeding in a forest after a turn of fortification. Cities without a +50% cultural defense just get picked off piecemeal. We need a mass of units that can beat praets.
Put another way: if he waddles 3 praetorians up to See Scape, escorted by the units he's got with him, he can sit back killing 3 of our units a turn until our stack is dead unless we can punish him. Spears won't punish him, so we need to be absolutely certain they're necessary.
Do we have a way to kill his axe on our banana? We've got to either reinforce See Scape or lose it.
The units protecting the worker on the gold (axe + bowman) are going to See-Scape as soon as the gold is roaded. Bowman finishing in Big Red Dragons will stay behind to clean up the axe in case our chariot loses, but afterwards will go to See-Scape as well. Chariot is coming out of Gruul Smash (that's why I'm planning to grow it into unhappiness and set up a double whip with an overflow into a chariot). If you think there's more urgency, we can double whip an axe in the capital, overflowing into a chariot. But I really want to start getting infrastructure in the capital
I haven't seen Thoth's chariots, but he had two 4k power increases after IW research, and I don't think anything else that's worth 4k makes sense. Given our stack at See-Scape (which is indeed 3 axes + spear, with 20% fortification bonus this turn), I can see him planning to sacrifice a chariot or two, damage the spear, then remaining chariots hit the axes
Do you think we need units besides bowmen defending See-Scape? If so, how many? We'll get 20% cultural defences on T57 (so 3 turns including this one)
(December 3rd, 2022, 13:18)yuris125 Wrote: But I really want to start getting infrastructure in the capital
Oh for sure. Definitely time to start transitioning into growth.
Quote:I haven't seen Thoth's chariots, but he had two 4k power increases after IW research, and I don't think anything else that's worth 4k makes sense. Given our stack at See-Scape (which is indeed 3 axes + spear, with 20% fortification bonus this turn), I can see him planning to sacrifice a chariot or two, damage the spear, then remaining chariots hit the axes
Good call, but given that he's only got 1 city, I imagine everything from here on is a Praetorian Party
Quote:Do you think we need units besides bowmen defending See-Scape? If so, how many? We'll get 20% cultural defences on T57 (so 3 turns including this one)
I'm not sure what you're asking. (We get slightly better odds if Thoth has to promote units with both Shock and Cover and then the combat logic lets us defend against one with the opposite promotion.) I'm suggesting that we emotionally prepare for Thoth to attack out with a couple praets pretty soon. His Combat 1 praets will get around 95% odds on an individual bowman. This isn't a huge deal if we can counteract and kill him after he attacks once. If he can sit somewhere and let his praets rolls 90% odds in safety, all that's going to happen is he's going to promote while wrecking our army.
I haven't simmed it out, but what do we do if next turn, Thoth moves his stack on the gold +1 praetorian to the tile 1S of our own units?
Hmmmm I actually didn't realise how badly bowmen fare against praets, despite their bonus vs melee in addition to archer's innate city defence bonus
I guess the question is, is there a point when we should move the stack from the forest next to See-Scape into the city? Since it's the best defensive tile we have, as you said earlier, but it's also a chokepoint which can be circumvented
The plan we discussed in case Thoth moves his stack off the hill was to move on the hill ourselves and threaten his capital, but now that I've seen the prae vs bowman odds, this plan suddenly doesn't sounds all that impressive with praets in play
Using the calculator Tarkeel linked (https://civ.zulan.net/vodka), if Thoth moves the stack 1S on the forest and we move ours into the city, outlook isn't terrible for us (better than I expected tbh) - we trade evenly and win on the counter (I excluded Thoth's spear from attackers because with a healthy axe defending it would be a suicidal attack)
That said, one of the units on the gold can start moving towards See-Scape this turn. If Thoth attacks and wins and deletes our worker, so be it, we will have the bowman to clean up the axe next turn and don't need a chariot then
Honestly, now that you brought up the odds praets get vs bowmen, I'm more worried about potential Thoth's attack on Gruul Smash, where I relied purely on bowmen for defence, and reinforcements are delayed by the river. Maybe we can count on bowmen to stop chariots in case he attacks there, and need to ready double whipping a couple of axes instead of a spear
Also, maybe we do want Masonry? You pointed out that walls are not as effective for Cre, but we may need them to stop the praets anyway
Set research to Masonry. Feels like extra defence is higher priority than Lighthouses. Will need to save gold for a few turns anyway, happy to take advice against it
Started moving the axe from gold towards See-Scape. We have 24% chance to lose the bowman and the worker if Thoth chooses to attack. I'll take it
(December 3rd, 2022, 14:28)Tarkeel Wrote: I usually set Vodka to 1K iterations, 2K for big fights.
Yeah I ran several tests, including at 1K iterations - this was just a quick screenshot
(December 3rd, 2022, 14:50)Magic Science Wrote: Rusty PHI players should prevail against vicious AGG Roman players.
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