[PB65] Pinch-Hitting Pindicator

[pindicator]

Current figures are:
170g in the bank.  385 beakers/turn at 100% with -346gpt cost.  Making 29gpt at 0%
Great Person due out of Azul in 7 turns and is currently a 62/38 split in favor of a Great Scientist.  When it finishes it will be close to a 50/50.
At 100% burn, currently we need 2 turns of research to finish Machinery and then another 3 turns for Guilds.  With our burn rate (let's round up to 350g) that means we need 1,750g.

170g for what we have now.
210g for the 7 turns of waiting (not accounting for growth so this number will be a little higher).
900g for the Great Merchant

That leaves 470g to make up in Wealth Builds over the next 12 turns.


While I was in game figuring this, I saw Mjmd did not take the Cease Fire and his power is approaching ours.  I would say it's possible he retreated out of his city.

[Zed-F]

You're planning to settle 2 more cities so that's going to add cost and slow down the timetable. On the other hand, hopefully your northern cities will finish courthouses soon (when?) Building FP could also help, but not in time for Knights.

What would you do with a Scientist if you got that instead?

[pindicator]

Yeah, though I am rethinking settling city #2. It's pure filler and doesn't pull any new bonus tiles in / only 1 green tile. So I think I hold off on that one until we get into Mercantilism.

What would you do with a Scientist if you got that instead?

Save him for the next golden age.

[Krill]

How long to the next golden age in that scenario? What happens if you put every city onto wealth and only whipped units or critical infrastructure like courthouse? Do you benefit from the game dragging out longer or do you need ot to end sooner? Who can build knights right now? How do you lose the game from this position?

[pindicator]

148

I think Wealth builds are definitely in order, but I still need to get the infra in.  We whipped a couple courthouses and had a couple more finish naturally this turn and jumped up to +40gpt even with the new city being founded.

Ticket to Ride is our 18th city:




I don't see any build-up of troops here on Mjmd's side and I don't plan to provoke him.  Because Cornflakes has knights in the field:




So this could be the mystery behind why Mjmd let Cornflakes take his city - but then Cornflakes only burned it and didn't advance in.  New theory:  Cornflakes hasn't realized he has the initiative and could have pushed Mjmd in right here, and is letting the moment slip away.  Either way, both their power continues to grow




I will add a pair of elephants to Clank! but want to whip a round of infrastructure first.  And Wealth.  Too many directions.




Cornflakes also sent his chariots in against Mjmd's western border, but he didn't concentrate them and instead scattered them among the border.  Which tells me that Mjmd has sufficient defences in his border cities now.

[pindicator]

How long to the next golden age in that scenario? What happens if you put every city onto wealth and only whipped units or critical infrastructure like courthouse? Do you benefit from the game dragging out longer or do you need ot to end sooner? Who can build knights right now? How do you lose the game from this position?

To answer this a little bit, I think we are winning the long game and are in the most danger in the near term. Hitru and I had a little chat right after the turn and we both agree that we need to focus on units and defense now while fitting in infrastructure and building up the conquered Bing lands. Our food advantage is growing and long term it should tell, especially since Cornflakes seems unable to commit to any kind of military attack / too afraid to lose some units to make gains. So no wealth builds, and probably a round of elephants because we are going to be fighting knights at a tech disadvantage.

Especially if Mjmd just refuses to give peace to any of us.

[Krill]

Cornflakes looks likes he is coming for Clank IMO.

[pindicator]

148

Superdeath would agree with you, Krill:




As far as I can see, Superdeath has no units around Cornflakes' stack, so I have to infer that Cornflakes is sending diplo messages to Superdeath.

Superdeath also has Cataphracts now.

Meanwhile, if anything Cornflakes moved his army farther away once my scout showed up. He is trying hard to not give any indication he wants to attack us, whatever his reasons.




It is set up to invade Mjmd again next turn, however. But then, why did he retreat from Mjmd lands to begin with?

[Krill]

Cornflakes may be thinking about the potential attack from SD bit he probably thinks you are unreliable at this point. I doubt he wants to commit to anything beyond racing Clank.

Cornflakes razed the city and retreated because he didn't want to get trapped when you didn't commit your forces. He was expecting you to draw units away.

[pindicator]

A good theory, but Cornflakes has acted this way in every war so far. He nibbles at the edges, hits an underdefended city and then sues for peace without committing his forces. He should have eaten SaC 50 turns ago, and actually had CoL and the Mids to be able to incorporate all that land. But he is so loss averse that he won't send his troops in to any kind of battle.

Which is why I won't commit my forces to invade Mjmd: because as soon as I'm a tempting target Cornflakes will pounce on Clank. (Also, I really don't have the forces to commit to an invasion.)

I'm not looking forward to backing out on Superdeath. I could tie up Cornflakes' units at best, but I still would like to see SD invade. If SD declared and invaded first then I would declare on Cornflakes and try again for peace with Mjmd