[SPOILERS] Out of retirement and into the fires of war. yuris125, Pitboss 68

[yuris125]

Not quite sure what happened here




Commodore did attack our C2 spear with the C1/shock horse archer, and won. But then... didn't continue the attack. Did he just want the last points he needed to get a great general? And was willing to throw away at least one horse archer to get them?

The other issue here is that the game says he had 28% to win this combat




But per Vodka, C1/shock horse archer vs C1/C2 spear is only 10% odds? Something doesn't add up

Anyway, I saw this as an opportunity to finally knock Commodore's units off that hill. Killing just an archer and a scout didn't seem worth the trouble, but a heavily wounded horse archer in the mix made it worthwhile. The C2 chariot we had died to the archer (it had about 37% odds of survival), but an axe and a couple spears cleaned up

I put a C2 spear on the hill for now, don't expect to hold the tile against dog soldiers, so not putting more units there. Also building a replacement chariot this turn. Don't want to overbuild chariots, especially if we're going HBR next, but want to have at least one double-move unit in play

Also whipped a safety spear in Boros Burn, as one possible explanation I had for this attack from Commodore was that possibly he wanted to give me a target and keep my units outside the city. Maybe it was unnecessary and overreaction, but felt prudent

[Ginger*]

10% odds of victory plus 20% withdraw chance means 28% survival chance

[yuris125]

Ahhh thanks!

[superdeath]

10% odds of victory plus 20% withdraw chance means 28% survival chance

Now, i know i was raised on American math, but i swear that adds up to something different..

[Ginger*]

Withdrawal chance applies only to losses, so 20% chance to withdraw from the 90% of the time that you will lose means that you will withdraw in 18% of battles 0.2*0.9=0.18

[superdeath]

See, my units withdraw even when they should win... That must be my confusion

[naufragar]

Sorry that I've been in the wind lately, but looks like I'm pretty unnecessary. I agree that a super specialist might be the best value for money, given that Alphabet's not high priority.

I worry a little about See-Scape with Thoth getting catapults. Who knows if he'll attack in our direction, but it's where he has vision.

[yuris125]

I very much appreciate your help as and when you can offer any advice! Even if it's just confirming that things I'm planning to do aren't silly

It has been a little quiet lately, as we have our plans in place and I'm just following them and not making especially big decisions. That's the thing with playing defensively, all I need to do is ensure I don't do anything stupid which would cause us lose out cities. There's no need to actively look for an opening

I share your concerns about See-Scape; we currently have 5 catapults, which I will start shifting towards the city as soon as I'm comfortable with the situation on the border with Commodore. I'll also get a couple extra axes, either shifted over from Boros Burn or freshly built. But with quite a few praets having shock, I think the key is to quickly get HBR and have some horse archers ready, so that we can hit Thoth's stack with catapults, follow up with a horse archer flanking attack, and hopefully get rid of his catapults. He won't be able to build them quickly either, with Hard Luck still at size 1 and about to lose one of its good tiles, and the capital stuck at size 5 with (probably) most forests already chopped

Honestly what I most want to know is where Miguelito is going to send his crossbows - he has to be looking in Rome's direction. But there's been no evidence of action so far, we can't see what's happening over in Japan, but haven't seen any movement from Thoth's units

[yuris125]

Decided not to stick in Commodore's territory




This is the stack he has in Blue Moon this turn (was just an archer + chariot last turn, looks like the swordsman was whipped). We probably could try holding on to the hill with bowmen. But I don't think there's much value. If Commodore tries to move a large force onto the hill, we have catapults in range, and with the farm now roaded, the hill can be hit with units from Boros Burn (where we will continue keeping a large garrison, don't really have a choice). If he just wants to still have a unit or two parked on the hill, it's acceptable. Even if one of those units is a chariot, which keeps moving into our territory and making me RESET THE FARM every turn

Thoth had a great scientist born this turn - guess this explains how he got the beakers for Construction, and why his capital has been stuck at size 5 for so long

Our own great person is also a scientist. Can't make the rolls go against the odds so far. So the plan is to settle it in the capital, and revolt to HR next turn (Gruul Smash and See-Scape grew into unhappiness this turn in anticipation of the civic swap)

Amica spending 6 hours in the game this turn hasn't gone unnoticed, but can't do much about whatever's going on in their corner

[yuris125]

Boros Burn is up to 4 spears, and I'm starting to shift the axes out of the city. Reinforcing See-Scape with 2 axes, another two will go back to keeping watch between the capital, Gruul Smash, and Boros Burn

Big Red Dragons will build a couple of catapults, which will bring us up to 7, and then go to horse archers - we should be able to get HBR out of this golden age as well

Don't think I can squeeze in the second trireme I talked about, but it's not essential right now, and making sure we can defend against Thoth's praet + catapult attack (and preferably kill his stack) is my highest priority atm

Probably going to get Currency after HBR for Wealth build, then on to Machinery. Thinking Calendar is not essential; with the high number of units we have, HR essentially eliminates happiness concerns for the foreseeable future, and Calendar resources don't give health until Guilds / grocers