[PB65 - Cornflakes] Rising from the Ashes

[Cornflakes]

Golden Age has ended and my production is more than double the rival best, about 360 vs 166 GNP is about even with rival best after factoring out culture, but I’ll spike up another +60 gpt next turn with completion of Spiral Minaret. I swapped back to Theocracy at end of the GA. The only infrastructure that I have left are Universities and Oxford. I would rather have the 2nd promotion on everything, plus it was about 12gpt savings over Organized Religion.

[Cornflakes]

Spiral Minaret completed for +60 gpt. And after shuffling tiles around to work more commerce at the capital instead of plains mines/windmills I’m sitting at 150 gpt max tax, which is about 40% slider. MJMD is around 60-70, Pindicator I’ve been trying to get a gold reading on for a few turns but it looks like he’s running some pretty heavy wealth builds. His gold balance hit a high of around 400 while he was saving gold on Machinery before I lost research visibility. GNP graph shows at least 5 turns of teching but his gold balance is still over 200 while I haven’t seen him save gold at all. His power graph is flat since he turned on tech and he has 10 turns of peace locked in with MJMD so that makes sense. Pindicator may reach Engineering and Guilds ahead of my projected timeframe but at the cost of all that wealth production “down the drain”. My assessment is that any increased threat from Pindi from getting tech earlier is counterbalanced in the short term by the extra military that I’m building now as compared to him, and in the longer term via the production that I’m going to put into PHI-boosted Universities.

Superdeath offered peace for the city of Gross Profit (my border fortress). I ignored. I’ll throw him an offer for a nominal sum of gold and gpt in a couple turns. SD ran at least 2 turns of full EP slider. He already had research visibility so he must be going for city vision. This is another reinforcement of my view that I just need to reach Rifling to diffuse the Cataphract threat in order to lock in the win.

MJMD sent fish-fish (which I returned), and has marched a stack deeper into SAC territory. SAC has something like 20 longbows in range of his nearest city so that will hopefully be a costly attack. I’m not concerned with MJMD picking up that extra territory. As we have seen with Pindicator, territory is costly and I’m perfectly content for him to stagnate his economy and keep his army entertained while I tech away in peace. The one city that I captured from SAC is in a nice position to push culture against 3 cities if MJMD picks off his capital. If he doesn’t pick off the capital then the coastal cities will be crushed in Indian culture. If he razes the capital then he is also clearing the Indian culture for me as well. Either way my tactical position is improved. In an eventual war, MJMD will not be able to defend his core AND the Indian conquests. My SAC capture is building walls, then PHI-Monastery, then CRE-Madrassa, then Temple. It will be like a culture bomb.

Pindicator ignored the fish-fish that I sent him, but with flat power and pretty clearly running wealth builds I don’t think he wants to pick a fight in the next 10 turns.

I’m 1XP from my next Great General. Though about sacrificing a Camel Archer or two to take out one of SD’s sentry cataphracts in Indian territory but I don’t have any immediate use for a GGeneral. It’s not like I’m close enough to a break point where a military instructor would be useful. I would probably just save it for an eventual Chariot > Cavalry free upgrade and morale. Or maybe I’ll save it to build a Military Academy for a few extra hammers in the final domination push.

[Cornflakes]

Education completed, and I'll have the prerequisite 5 universities in 3 turns and then build Oxford University in 3 turns (Holistic Context, my capital, will be carrying nearly a full turn of overflow off of the University).

   

   

Here is Pindicator's trade window showing 86 gpt, no gold in the treasury. I re-established research visibility this turn and he is on Guilds (1425 turns) indicating that he is at max tax. Assuming 140 bpt breakeven for him after factoring in libraries and KTB he's looking at 10 turns to reach Guilds. MFG graph shows that Pindicator is rival best at about 180 hammers per turn meaning that if he goes all-in on wealth builds he could reach Guilds in about 4 turns. But then he would still need to build the knights before he could threaten me.

My savings rate exceeds all rivals PLUS I get my 200 bpt passive from UoS. Given my GNP lead and threat assessment indicating that Rifling will lock in my win condition I'm considering running wealth builds after the Universities and Oxford are completed in order to ensure that I don't come up a few turns short. I don't see indications of a dogpile yet given MJMD's engagement vs. SAC and Pindicator's clear need for tech and time to assemble and army. The tradeoff is that I'm giving up a knight for every 100 gold of wealth that I build which makes me slightly more vulnerable in the near term until Rifles are unlocked, which then render rival knights and Cataphracts ineffective. I also want to put production into Muskets for queue-upgrade to Riflemen. So basically I'm looking at the comparison between the deterrent affect of 10 knights vs. 3 turns quicker to Rifling.

   

   

MJMD's GNP fell off a cliff after his golden age ended. My attack vs. MJMD turned out to be wildly successful. At the cost of a dozen obsolete chariots and an a couple odd crossbow/mace/catapult MJMD was forced to whip of GA tiles and likely delay the GPP for his 3rd MoM-GA by a couple dozen turns since he didn't run Caste. This in addition to getting 3 cities razed with the associated settler costs and infrastructure.

[Cornflakes]

I'm still debating whether I want to research aesthetics + literature ahead of Rifling. The cost is 700 beakers, the benefit is to get Heroic Epic online earlier. Since I'm considering the [hammer > research] conversion via wealth builds to accelerate Rifling we can evaluate this decision on the reverse bases of [research > hammers] conversion since the HE produces hammers in return for the tech. The base beaker yield is 700 / [1 + 0.2 Arow + .05 KTB] = 560 wealth-equivalent-hammers. The city where I'd build HE has 40 base hammers. 560 / 40 = 14. Therefore in my comparison if I am more than 14 turns away from Rifling, then slipping in Aesthetics + Literature ahead via wealth builds will yield a greater net result without delaying Rifling. However if I am less than 14 turns from Rifling then I will delay rifling for less benefit than I would gain. It is currently T161. Projected timeline on Rifling is T175 ... right on the 14 turn timing.

EDIT: The "hidden" or "unspoken" tradeoff is also that the military units equivalent to the HE cost are deferred by the time that it takes to construct HE, therefore if I need 2 Camel Archers NOW then that also needs to factor in (I don't think I do) and the hidden gain is that I can build my first Rifle quicker with the HE boost.

[Qgqqqqq]

Does your projected timeline take into account increased bpt from city growth/infrastructure improvements?

Also, could we see pictures of the front now the dust has settled?

[Cornflakes]

Does your projected timeline take into account increased bpt from city growth/infrastructure improvements?

Also, could we see pictures of the front now the dust has settled?

Yes the projections do include increased growth (negligible, I'm pretty much fully grown), and infrastructure (universities/oxford), and optimistically a Great Scientist at around 25% (the Merchant at 25% will yield about 1 turns less worth of beakers, same with the Engineer ... prophet would shrine and therefore cost an extra 3 turns in the short term to Rifling but pay out 50 gpt). So either way in the comparisons I'll likely get a slightly better ROI on Heroic Epic if indeed I go ahead with the wealth builds ... which would start in 3 turns after the Universities complete.

I'll get some screenshots of the borders in all directions next turn ... didn't get a turn at all this weekend

[Cornflakes]

The dust hasn't quite settled in the north:

   

MJMD made a big attack this turn but came up short. He also has a half dozen knights 1N of his main stack. He should be able to capture the city next turn but at this point he's pretty much gassed and should have to bring in reinforcements before advancing. Here's a little spoiler on the power graph when the updated at the turn roll:

   

This is why I didn't press my attack, and signed peace after just taking the border city. I think my odds of victory just ticked up to 90%. With that attack MJMD needs to rebuild his stack and shouldn't be in any kind of shape to press a dogpile before I get Rifling.

In the southwest:

   

Pindicator has a sizeable defensively-oriented stack. I'm a bit light in comparison but my stack of 15 knights is within range to reinforce before he can reach Money or any other target.

In the east:

   

I have my knights staged where they can get to the Superdeath front in 1 turn, the MJMD/northern front in 1 turn, and the Pindicator/western front in 2 turns. The RED stack was also staged with at YELLOW but went exploring with the "E" hotkey this turn I debated asking for reload but just ate it. If SD has cataphracts in range to wipe this stack then I'll take out his units in return. The hammer exchange will be worse for me but ultimately by diffusing his stack in smaller proportions it will be easier for me to hold everywhere. His advantage right now is the mobility of a 12str stack. Note his city sizes in the screenshot not much fuel left in the gas tank.

Demographics after the turn roll:

   

Pindicator launched his 2nd GA and is now Rival Best in the key metrics, as well as rival best power as confirmed in the above graph. He is researching Guilds in 3. If he swaps back to slavery in 5 turns and whips everything (in a GA, ouch!) he could have 15 knights advancing into my territory in about 8 turns. After 2 more turns of University construction I'll probably slip in another round of pikes for good measure while building Oxford, then start running wealth builds.

[Cornflakes]

The dogpile has begun

   

   

   

I actually had at trade window from MJMD offering me a fish when I logged in so even though he canceled open borders it seems like he realizes that he isn't in a position to actively engage in hostilities. Canceling Open Borders though is a clear violation of the spirit of the Fish-Fish that he offered me literally 2-3 turns ago (which I mirrored back), and gives me casus belli for striking his wounded forces in SAC lands. hmmm... I didn't send anything back. Let him sweat a bit! I'll have to crunch some numbers on Superdeath's capabilities to see how many knights I can afford to withdraw from that front.

Curiously Pindicator's stack of catapults (which has been fortified on the same tile since we last signed peace) disappeared this turn. He isn't trying to sneak through MJMD's territory because I have city vision on that whole area. Is he trying to signal that his war declaration isn't meant as a serious threat? Is he just trying to give Superdeath some moral support and encouragement to commit to an attack? His actions just seem counter productive. At least keep some pressure on me! As-is I now get an additional turn of warning of any attack. hmmm ... any knights that I sent on an MJMD strike can still reach the Pindicator front if needed.

But despite canceling OB, MJMD did send me a fish ... and as long as he's tied up fighting SAC he will be unlikely to declare war on me. If I attack MJMD and snuff out the 10% glimmer of hope that he has then he is highly likely to throw his game completely in an effort to make me not win, instead of still trying to better his position. Take another look at the first screenshot of this post ... MJMD's gains from the SAC war are a pretty terrible ROI. The Cornwall city is coastal for his Great Lighthouse trade route so it should at least pay for itself and he will be able to work the wheat now that he cleared the culture from Treehouse, but it is a flatland city that can only work plains tiles. It will make a decent production center, but how long will it take to pay back the military that he spent in acquiring it, after first building the necessary infrastructure? Treehouse itself is a useless drain of a city until he clear's SAC capital culture AND the other city peeking out 3E. And he will have to maintain a garrison there in Treehouse while advancing on those cities. And then after expending all that effort to clear the culture, he will end up with a untenable border situation. The very fact that he is trying this desperate attempt makes me believe that he is still playing for the win and is not ready to join in on a last-ditch-effort dogpile. I'll restrain my impulse and refrain from poking the sleeping beast in the eye.

Oh, and I almost forgot to mention that SD did not attack my exploring catapult stack.

[Cornflakes]

I crunched some numbers and found that if I go heavy wealth builds and sustain 100% research I can get Rifling in about 11-12 turns if I roll the 30% Scientist, and 13-14 if anything else. Therefore I offered peace to Pindicator for 25 gpt, the same amount that he previously paid me for peace earlier in the game. The amount is trivial, compared to a pretty much 100% guarantee that I lock in my victory.

[Cornflakes]

1 university completed EOT, the remaining 4 next turn. And the capital will by carrying a full turn of overflow off the university so will be able to complete Oxford in 4. My next Great Person lands in 8 turns, hoping for the scientist to bulb Printing Press. The passive 200 BPT will complete Literature next turn, then I'll put 1 turn into Alphabet (PP prerequisite), then 2 turns into PP to take it just under the 1800 bulb value remaining. After that the passive beakers go into Gunpowder until Oxford completes, then max research will complete Gunpower, Max overflow off Alphabet, if scientist then bulb PP and carry that overflow forward to Replaceable parts (bulb with Engineer), and carry the overflow further to Rifling. If non-scientist then the overflow will complete PP but I won't be able to carry it forward. I'll be around 900 bpt max research rate post-Oxford so Rifling at 3500 will be a 4-turn tech if I don't carry any overflow.

Taking a closer look at SD's power graph:

   

SD has an estimated 27 Cataphracts at present if his entire power increase post-Guilds is attributed to Phracts. According to Vodka, 10 pikes and 5 macemen behind 100% castle walls have an 80% chance of holding on defense vs. 30 Phracts. I couldn't find a recent screenshot but I know that I have at least those numbers plus a couple longbows and at least 10 more axe/spear warm bodies defending Gross Profit. So if he doesn't send in Catapults and just tries to strike out of the fog I'm completely safe. He only had about 6 catapults when he started the Cataphract buildup so if he added any cats in between then that would reduce his number of Phracts. If he didn't add catapults then there's no way he chips down the castle walls at Gross Profit at 12% per turn before I wipe him out completely. But if he did build 20 catapults then he only has 15 Phracts to hit me with Either way I'm safe in the east.