Other stuff

[Tarkeel]

Who else thinks that Russia is going to use tactical nukes soon(within 2years)?

Why would he? He can get away with doing more damage with conventional weapons.

[Gavagai]

I'm not saying 0% because autocrats can get pretty crazy when things go bad, but the whole nuke game is always bluff, because shockingly the goal of leading a state isn't to see it reduced to rubble. Even if he used on a small scale (like 1 or 2 try to pass it off as terroists ect) even China would turn on Putin then and the absolute minimum response would be massive total sanctions plus any Russian forces in Ukraine would go bye/bye as EU / NATO intervened.

On the topic of nuclear war - this is an article I wrote soon after the invasion: https://kyivindependent.com/opinion/serg...in-ukraine I now disagree with some of the things there but with respect to the danger of nuclear escalation my opinion is the same.

[Gavagai]

In short - I think that Putin is a very rational actor who role-plays a madman to achieve his goals. He will never use nukes.

[Jowy]

Who else thinks that Russia is going to use tactical nukes soon(within 2years)?

Yes, unless Russia starts winning the war, or Putin is ousted before he uses them. America has already essentially stated that tactical nukes won't warrant a nuclear response. Look at Biden's comments here: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62936643

And I do think that Russia has intentionally reached out or leaked their "plans" to use tactical nukes in order to gauge the response and to make USA aware of it so that they won't panic when it happens.

[Miguelito]

a very rational actor who role-plays a madman to achieve his goals.

... akin to a certain civ player?

[superdeath]

a very rational actor who role-plays a madman to achieve his goals.

... akin to a certain civ player?

Please, new QOTM.

[darrelljs]

On the topic of nuclear war - this is an article I wrote soon after the invasion

I did not realize we had a real journalist on the forums...that was an extremely well written article & I enjoyed the analysis. You way want to invest in a geiger counter test test your drinks, and only stay in hotel rooms with windows that don't open.

Darrell

[Mjmd]

Short of NATO just interfering in the air (which I agree with Gav would not cause nukes to fly as long as we stayed in Ukraine), we should be delivering weapons at a much faster rate. Ukraine should have had US tanks ages ago. We could give them 2,000 of our older tanks and it would be good for the US. Mind you I'm big on armed forces rebalancing in the US away from the Army and more towards Navy. But ya we are never fighting a war where we've taken enough casualties to need all our tanks. So we are just paying upkeep costs on tons of junk we don't need.

[Jowy]

Short of NATO just interfering in the air (which I agree with Gav would not cause nukes to fly as long as we stayed in Ukraine), we should be delivering weapons at a much faster rate. Ukraine should have had US tanks ages ago. We could give them 2,000 of our older tanks and it would be good for the US. Mind you I'm big on armed forces rebalancing in the US away from the Army and more towards Navy. But ya we are never fighting a war where we've taken enough casualties to need all our tanks. So we are just paying upkeep costs on tons of junk we don't need.

I think the USA is just fine prolonging the war for as long as they can.

[Gavagai]

Short of NATO just interfering in the air (which I agree with Gav would not cause nukes to fly as long as we stayed in Ukraine), we should be delivering weapons at a much faster rate. Ukraine should have had US tanks ages ago. We could give them 2,000 of our older tanks and it would be good for the US. Mind you I'm big on armed forces rebalancing in the US away from the Army and more towards Navy. But ya we are never fighting a war where we've taken enough casualties to need all our tanks. So we are just paying upkeep costs on tons of junk we don't need.

I think the USA is just fine prolonging the war for as long as they can.

Speaking of USA... It is obvious to any person with reason that this war would not have happened if Trump was US President. There is some rather concrete evidence I can offer to those who disagree but I will skip it now because this is not what my message is about. My message is that Americans were so blinded by their hatred that they chose to make a literally senile dude who does not quite understand what is happening around him the most powerful person in the world. And that incredibly stupid choice played a big role in what happened in Ukraine because US administration gave Putin every possible signal that USA will not interfere and failed to make some very obvious moves to resolve the conflict diplomatically. In my eyes and in the eyes of every single man who has wisdom all those who voted for Biden bear a small part of the responsibility for all the deaths that happened as the result. I can only hope that some of you would learn some lessons from the fact that you made the kind of mistake that was worse than a crime.