[SPOILERS] Magic Science and Nobody Else in Pitboss 66

[Magic Science]

Vanrober has been eliminated. Better him than me. . 8th place, here I am!

Plem-adilly declared war on Amicalola, and Amicalola is being MASSACRED. He lost 7 cities in 2 turns! He has nowhere to hide! 7th place, here I come?

[Magic Science]

And now Amicalola has been eliminated. . 7th place, here I am!

It is conceivable that Superdeath or Gin-guelito could be eliminated before me too, but I think that is unlikely.

[Magic Science]

Turn 200. Still alive, somehow. Hoo-ray.

Mjmd founded Cereal Mills and Plem-adilly founded Mining Incorporated, which gives me an idea of where people are at on the tech tree. It is strange to try to lurk a game from inside it. I really have no idea what is happening.

Looks like people will wait for Infantry or Marines to finally eliminate me?

[klops]

you made a scary fortress, better wait for nukes... :D

[Charriu]

I think you will survive until the end. There's more or less no reason to capture your last city as it provides easy foreign IC trade routes.

[Magic Science]

you made a scary fortress, better wait for nukes... :D

It would be an honor to be nuked in Civ IV. .

I think you will survive until the end. There's more or less no reason to capture your last city as it provides easy foreign IC trade routes.

   
It's now Turn 203, and this is Aphrodite, its garrison, and it surroundings, for reference.
(Eliminating 5 players has made the turn pace a lot faster. ).
The same old 3 players still border Aphrodite and can capture it whenever they want: Plem-adilly, Civ-eel, and Mjmd.

Economy: For all 3 of them, Aphrodite would be profitable if they owned it. Mjmd and Plemadilly have Free Market and Mercantilism, respectively. Civ-eel and Plem-adilly have centers of government very close. All 3 of them have reached the Conqueror's Plateau. If they owned Aphrodite, it would be worth a small profit. So, if the island was empty, they would settle it.
I think the loss of 1 or 2 commerce in 1 of their cities from Aphrodite's trade route would not deter them.

Military: I have 10 Crossbowmen, 10 Phalanxes, 3 Axemen, 2 Triremes, 1 Galley, and a partridge in a pear tree (some promotions). I think this force is still working to keep me alive. Good work, Greek guys. .
Cyneaheard's Combat Calculator tells me that Riflemen get about between 2/3 and 3/4 odds attacking my Crossbowmen if the defenses are bombarded with Frigates (all 3 of them have Frigates), then about 9/10 odds attacking my Phalanxes and Axemen. So, overall, it would cost at least about 3 + 2 Riflemen to destroy all my units and capture Aphrodite, and that is too much, so they leave me alone for now. And that it not all, since the conqueror would also need a lot more Rifleman and Galleons that would not be killed, but would need to abandon whatever else they were doing for this trivial cause.

I think Infantry and Marines may be the tipping point. Properly-promoted Infantry and baseline Marines can get 99.99% odds against everything I have, so you really could capture the city with just a few of them chipping away over time, and lose nothing. 2 Galleons, 6 attackers? 
But I could still be saved a while longer by the political situation. Mjmd and Plem-adilly are having some sort of stalemate in my old land, and probably cannot afford to even blink. Civ-eel and Plem-adilly may have established a demilitarized zone or something right around me, and maybe would break their peace by bringing in enough units to conquer me? EDIT: Maybe having Aphrodite for a naval base would be too aggressive? I think Civ-eel would be very uncomfortable with someone other than me, or them of course, owning it.

Turn 250, here I come?

My situation would be much worse if any of the 3 of them had put in a tiny effort to besiege me. Just send in 1 Frigate and you can blockade Aphrodite. With no foreign trade routes and no foreign metal, my military would actually shrink from STRIKE (EDIT: Well, maybe not, but it would at least stop me from training any more units. I think I have 5 or more more Phalanxes now?). Why has no one done this?


Last Things: I am watching for a chance to swarm and kill a Roman Caravel with my 3 remaining ships, but the enemy has been cowardly and intelligent so far, and has stayed on foreign ocean tiles.
My 2 GG Crossbowmen are still not promoted, but there is no chance for any Morale-trickery anymore. I should just promote them to City Garrison I.
For some reason, no one wants to give me any free resources anymore. All I want it a bit of health! Is your second Rice too much to ask for, GINGER AND MIGUELITO? Superdeath would probably be charging me for my Iron if he remembered that deal, .
I have more than 150 gold now. The idea was to withstand a blockade and STRIKE for a while, but since that is not happening I guess I can try to bribe the first person to attack me.

It would be cool to survive this game. So far I have never been eliminated from a PB.

[Magic Science]

It sure is a peaceful world out there.

[klops]

thanks for that lengthy analysis.
I guess the global situation really helps you. Just from the geometry of the map, I think you are mostly relying on peaceful tarkeel/hagen, that island would look somewhat natural inside their borders. The other two would have a pretty "forward base" with all the complications you wrote above. Spain is also the only one with vision all around (regarding slowly chipping away your army) and *could probably* even defend you with a couple frigates. That would be a really cool event for your magic surviving (no spoilers, just dreaming)

[Magic Science]

   
Superdeath finally remembered the gift, and he canceled it, and he wants payment. I rejected him.
I don't know. That gold is not likely to matter as a bribe against people with 1000 GPT, or as a reserve to withstand STRIKE in a siege against people who have shown no interest in besieging me, but I just don't want to give it up. It baffles me that no one is willing to throw me any free stuff anymore? What has changed? Does no one have any generosity left in their withered hearts? . (some of it is that they need their surplus resources for their corporations now).

I guess I should make the rounds with my cap in hand one last time, just in case, in memory of the good old days of begging.
Otherwise, I will just train Archers, fine.


   
Against Superdeath the issue became moot shortly. A quadruple dogpile of all 4 big dog contenders capture 13/17 cities in 4 turns.
Superdeath's precious Wonders are in Uppsala, so he still controls them for now, though it occurs to me that all 4 attackers must have obsoleted both of them.
Superdeath does still have a 1-tile-island city, and I have no idea how well-defended it is. Still, this dogpile is cause for great optimism! 6th place, here I come? .
Either way, he can't supply me with metal anymore.

thanks for that lengthy analysis.
I guess the global situation really helps you. Just from the geometry of the map, I think you are mostly relying on peaceful tarkeel/hagen, that island would look somewhat natural inside their borders. The other two would have a pretty "forward base" with all the complications you wrote above. Spain is also the only one with vision all around (regarding slowly chipping away your army) and *could probably* even defend you with a couple frigates. That would be a really cool event for your magic surviving (no spoilers, just dreaming)

   
This is the big picture of geography around Aphrodite. You are correct that civac2 aka Hagen + Tarkeel are the main threat to me.
For Plemo + Piccadilly, they probably wouldn't want to disturb their diplomatic relationship with Spain for the sake of the tiny profit of Aphrodite.
For Mjmd, he doesn't even have a route to attack me anymore.

I tried offering Open Borders to my 2 neighbors, but neither accepted. A long time ago, I decided not to offer Open Borders out of pettiness because I felt secure, and now it is too late. Oh well, like I said, I doubt that makes the difference.

It would be cool for someone to fight in my territory to defend me. It has happened before for other players. For me, maybe it could happen if Rome vs. Spain was going to happen anyway. Rome attacks, they attack Aphrodite because they want a forward base, and Spain takes the opportunity to hit them in my territory when they are vulnerable. Cool and possible.

My continued survival now depends on the merciful choice of the team that I launched not 1 but 2 successful amphibious surprise attacks against. . To forgive is divine, am I right? .

[Magic Science]

Overall, the dogpile on Superdeath doesn't change my mind about this game being boring.

Nearly every war in the entire game has been a war of a strong player inflicting inevitable doom on a weak player at the moment that was most convenient and profitable for the strong player. There were no wars of conquest in which the outcome was in doubt, when the weak player had a chance to hold out. There were no wars between equals. We are past Turn 200 and the 4 big dog contenders have hardly fired a shot against each other all game long.
The most I can say is that Gavagai and Mjmd had 1 small skirmish a long time ago, and Mjmd and Plem-adilly are having a stalemate skirmish now.

EXCEPTION: Amicalola and Miguelito + Ginger experienced mutual destruction.
EXCEPTION?: Mjmd conquered JackRB in a rush. This was a strong player conquering a weak player, but rushes are always risky. JackRB probably had a chance.
EXCEPTION?: Plem-adilly conquered me relatively early. This was also a strong player conquering a weak player, but it was pre-Construction, it took 40 turns, I bulbed Machinery, Mjmd intervened (I forgot about that, ), so maybe it is not as boring as the rest, or maybe I am giving myself too much credit.

Overall, boring, but this game can still be redeemed if the 4 big dog contenders start throwing nukes at each other.