Gavagai's procrastination bin

[Gavagai]

New turn. So, Plemo did a dumb thing, split his army. There are 22 Infantry and 2 MGs here. Well, I can kill that if I decide to pull the trigger. Will I, though?

That's Rom right now. I ran 20 sims of attack against that and 10 times out of 20 I was able to raze the city. So, this is literally a coinflip. I was thinking about the way to improve my chances and I think I'll be able to sneak in a couple of destroyers to bombard down Rom's defenses.

That's my totally inconspicuous raiding party. In position, now the ball is on Plemo's side. If he does not cover Rom RIGHT NOW, next turn he will be fucked with 50 percent chance.

[Magic Science]

Any questions? Anything you want me to show you? This is an interesting game, really a shame it is underreported and underlurked.

Why do you have so much more Espionage than Rome to have city investigation against them?

And what are Tarkeel + Civac doing during all this?

And good luck. I want to see Rome defeated.

[Gavagai]

Any questions? Anything you want me to show you? This is an interesting game, really a shame it is underreported and underlurked.

Why do you have so much more Espionage than Rome to have city investigation against them?

And what are Tarkeel + Civac doing during all this?

And good luck. I want to see Rome defeated.

1) This is because I've been investing all my EPs into them since the moment it has become clear they are the frontrunner. I have enough on other great powers to see their tech and do not really need anything more than that. They also leave me in peace, fortunately (probably, same reason). Rome, by contrast, split their EPs, I suspect they put most of them into mjmd. With me they don't go for anything more than my graphs. I suspect they generally have a low esteem of me as a long-term strategic threat (they are very careful and aware on a tactical level though).
2) Tarkeel and Civac are the weakest of great powers, I think, at least in terms of potential. Their demos are good right now because they timed their GA very well and revolted into very powerful civics. But they rely on religious buildings greatly (AP + Sancnore) and SciMethod will hurt them greatly. Also they have no corps and are very unlikely to land Sushi, I believe - long-term this is very bad. They are behind me in tech (though by now they almost caught up because I am spending money on upgrades) and I am significantly behind Rome and mjmd. I signalled them I am going to attack Rome some time ago and they signaled they'll help but without any specific date. I suspect they will do nothing, content to develop peacefully while the world burns around them. Last turn I sold them Oil for corp resources so they can now build metal navy despite the lack of SciMethod. Maybe it would make them bolder.
3) Thanks!

[Qgqqqqq]

I've been watching closely for the past 20t and am greatly appreciating your updates, Gav. However, I don't have any useful or interesting questions.

Edit: actually, to clarify, did you have a 50% chance to alpha strike Plemo this turn, or is that next turn? Never mind, read your earlier post!

[Gavagai]

I've been watching closely for the past 20t and am greatly appreciating your updates, Gav. However, I don't have any useful or interesting questions.

Edit: actually, to clarify, did you have a 50% chance to alpha strike Plemo this turn, or is that next turn? Never mind, read your earlier post!

Thanks! Actually, I did a bit more sims (probably have way too much time on my hands) and it more looks like 30-40 percent to win than 50. Apparently, it was some sort of lucky fluke when I simmed the previous time. So, I am not sure whether I would go for this, contemplating alternative options. There is an idea of hitting Rom on the second turn of war with 2 transports instead of 1. But better see how they would position their forces before thinking too much about this.

[Hitru]

I also appreciate that we lurkers get to see what's happening in this game. Keep us updated and best luck to your war

[Gavagai]

Hehe. P&P are careful. The fact that they bothered to reinforce Rom is evidence that they are aware of the possibility of me having a seven-mover. I cannot break it with a single transport. Even if I had four amphibious Tanks on that transport, I would have to be exceptionally lucky.
I think the idea of a sneak attack against Rom needs to be shelved I need to move my focus to the second-important target I can reach.

Ardea is their Moai city. It is a powerful production city in its own right, one of the most powerful cities in their entire Empire, I think. On top of that, it has immense strategic importance. As long as they hold it, they dominate the most important part of my coastline. It can be used as an unbreakable base from which they can threaten several of my cities, my own Moai included. This is too much of an imbalance in their favor, so any war I am going to fight against them should start with capturing this stronghold, otherwise, I am lost.
If I take it, however, it will dramatically shift the balance in my favor. It will become my unbreakable base from which I will be able to constantly threaten Rom. So, if I cannot assault Rom directly, I need to turn my attention here.
Right now I can hit it with 8 amphibious infantry and 2 amphibious cavs. I simmed and, unsurprisingly, my chances to take the city with such forces are very low. However, if I add 4 more amphibious infantry to this roster, then my chances to capture become very good. I can add these units in two turns from now, so I decided to move my attack to T231. If they sufficiently reinforce during these next two turns, I might cancel the attack altogether: no point in participating in this losing arms race.
Sorry to disappoint guys. I imagine mjmd will be pissed. I signalled him that T231 is my new attack date and he must be pretty annoyed with my constantly shifting schedule. I imagine he just wants me to hit Rome hard on land and does not care about what happens in the seas. Sorry bro, but I care. It is my coastline Rome is going to burn in retaliation.
Speaking of land. I am sort of on a clock there.

The tile NE from Walnut has 34 percent Roman culture and adds 2-3 percent every turn. Once it flips, assaulting Walnut will become drastically more difficult. And this theater is actually important. As long, as I have an advantage here, I can always force Rome to make peace with me. Their Pentagon and Christo Redentor are just a few tiles to the south and they cannot risk losing those.
If it was not a factor, I would very likely call off the attack already. Strategically, it is a terrible moment to start a war. Right now Rome has a huge general defensive advantage due to their powerful infantry but once tanks and battleships become an option for me, the situation will shift in my favor. Battleships give the defender an advantage in naval operations and Tanks give an advantage to the attacker on land. This favors me as I am mostly going to attack on land and defend on the sea. Also, I will be able to finish my industrialization and our production capabilities would become closer. The reason I wanted to go to war now was concrete considerations that outbalanced global strategic factors but these reasons almost evaporated by now.

[Gavagai]

P&P and mjmd do not seem to be reporting their war, so this is how their main front looks like. Captain Morgan just flipped its adjuncted tiles this turn, before mjmd could hit it in one turn. Now this opportunity is lost which can be a big thing as Rome potentially frees up lots of units.
By the way, some time ago I said that mjmd would be better off going Artillery instead of Flight. If he went that direction, he would have right now a perfect unit to break this stack, just saying...

And some truly annoying stuff to wrap up my report. I decided to check what Viking city-state is up to. Viking city-state is building galleys. There are considerably more of them than the last time I checked. I think SD decided that Birka (south) is too well-protected and his idea is to hit Bjorgvin and Almarikh (west) amphibiously the moment I get distracted (which is, when I start the war against Rome). I guess I will have to reinforce.

[Gavagai]

I decided to abandon my plan to attack Rome.
Here is my reasoning. Back when I started to prepare for this war I perceived P&P as being close to runaway leaders of this game. I estimated their production potential as much higher than the one of mjmd and expected them to completely overrun him in short order and force concession. It is to stop this scenario I decided to interfere.
However, the war between Zulu and Rome proceeds much differently than I expected. It is mjmd who is pressing on and P&P are on their backfoot. I severely underestimate the power of mjmd's slavery-driven industry (as, I suspect P&P and mjmd himself). And in the meantime mjmd pretty much caught up with Rome in tech. Rome just researched Industrialism but Zulu will also get it next turn. Rome has Radio on mjmd but mjmd has Biology.
This invites an interesting question. What exactly is our reason to believe that Rome is the sole leader of this game? In war, in technology, in production mjmd goes at least toe to toe with them. A case can be made that they are about equal - so why should I interfere in their war? From the balance of powers perspective, it does not make any sense.
But what about my potential spoils then? I have a feeling that P&P would never accept the loss of Adrea and I would not be able to hold it if they really prioritize its recapture. I cannot afford a protracted war but to get peace from Rome I would most likely have to give Ardea back. On what then will be left for me? A couple of border cities in the south with a pipe dream of maybe using them for an assault at their wonder city in the future? I do not think we have a good argument here.
(To be continued...)

[Amicalola]

I have no current knowledge of Mjmd's current game. But I just want to point out something, as someone with a lot of experience with the Kremlin econ in multiplayer (probably(?) the most of everyone at RB): it runs on a limited amount of time. At a certain point, there is too much whipping unhappiness and you run out of excess happiness, and then your choice is to either whip more and make the problem worse (but this only works in a zero sum game, which PB66 is not), or stop whipping / whip considerably less again (but then you lose your previous advantage). Smart choices of a few cities not to whip alleviate this somewhat, but certainly not entirely. Finally, if hostilities ever cease, Mining Inc. players can convert their hammers into GNP via wealth, while Kremlin players cannot. Towards the end of PB59, you can see this problem beginning for me (and within 5 more turns, it would have been crippling). I believe Mig would have won that game, due to this dynamic. Really, this applies to Kremlin vs. any other type of economy, Mining Inc. is just a particularly good example.

Anyway, I do not know what the right option is for you, but I hope that is some food for thought, at least.I have been really enjoying your updates recently, and have only avoided commenting because I did not want to raise Plemo's suspicions before your averted naval strike.