[PB69 SPOILERS] Magic Science and Nobody Else in Pitboss 69

[Magic Science]

I captured Iago. Not with that raiding party. With a GG Morale trick when the city was emptied. Before Naufragar's eyes. His army was right there. HAHAHAHA.

No real report for a while, I have to finally sleep and then do real work, but the urge to share this triumph immediately was irresistible.
I knew keeping the GG around unused was a good idea. I knew it. This is exactly what I kept him for.

Also there's a chance this goes horribly wrong the very next turn even, so I had better smile while I can.

EDIT: Turn 148 was a very complicated turn.

[Magic Science]

Does Zulan’s Vodka tool account properly for Collateral damage? Are there any unpredictable behaviors I should be aware of? Please.

I ask because I am trying to use it to see how it would go ifNaufragar’s got the first strike on my main army in Joker, and it is showing unbelievably good results.

Thanks, report of the last 4 turns in 5 hours or so.

[Mjmd]

I'm not sure. Once the stacks start getting large I usually do a quick build in worldbuilder, save, and then run a few times. You can start by doing unpromoted and as that favors defender if attacker still wins easy answer. And if not it doesn't take too much effort to put promos in.

[scooter]

I ask because I am trying to use it to see how it would go ifNaufragar’s got the first strike on my main army in Joker, and it is showing unbelievably good results.

"Unbelievably good" in which direction? (I don't know the answer to your question, sadly.)

[Magic Science]

I ask because I am trying to use it to see how it would go ifNaufragar’s got the first strike on my main army in Joker, and it is showing unbelievably good results.

"Unbelievably good" in which direction? (I don't know the answer to your question, sadly.)

Unbelievably good for me! . I assumed that whoever got hit by the first strike would be wrecked, which would make things unpleasant for me in Joker since it does not control its first ring, but Vodka indicates otherwise. If Naufragar's main army attacked my main army in Joker, my main army would be alright. Badly wounded, with some losses, and not "alright" enough for me feel comfortable prompting a first strike by marching into enemy culture, but alright. Not wiped out. Still in control of the city. With some opportunity to counterattack. Overall in much condition better than his, though of course in reality he would stop attacking, unlike Vodka.
And that's without even Walls in Joker!

[Magic Science]

In this hypothetical, Naufragar is the one to attack, so he deals the collateral. And Vodka indicates this attack would be so surprisingly unsuccessful that I wondered if it was just not accounting for Catapults as units that deal collateral damage, rather than just boring normal 5 strength units.
I toyed some more and it looks like it does account for collateral, but that doesn't mean it isn't misleading me, or maybe giving me an opportunity to mislead myself, in some other way.
So if there are any Vodka-knowers out there, please say something! There will be a reward for information pertaining to the case, I guess, I don't know.

[Tarkeel]

Does Zulan’s Vodka tool account properly for Collateral damage? Are there any unpredictable behaviors I should be aware of? Please.

I ask because I am trying to use it to see how it would go ifNaufragar’s got the first strike on my main army in Joker, and it is showing unbelievably good results.

Thanks, report of the last 4 turns in 5 hours or so.

AFAIK it handles collateral, but you need to beware that it thinks elephants are 8 str still. It also blindly attacks in the order you set, so a human player juggling matchups and promotions can do better.

[Magic Science]

Does Zulan’s Vodka tool account properly for Collateral damage? Are there any unpredictable behaviors I should be aware of? Please.

I ask because I am trying to use it to see how it would go ifNaufragar’s got the first strike on my main army in Joker, and it is showing unbelievably good results.

Thanks, report of the last 4 turns in 5 hours or so.

AFAIK it handles collateral, but you need to beware that it thinks elephants are 8 str still. It also blindly attacks in the order you set, so a human player juggling matchups and promotions can do better.

Thank you very much. . I thought you might have something to say. That information is very useful. Now I can play Turn 151 with the help of Vodka.

[Magic Science]

Turn 147 and Turn 148 and Turn 149 and Turn 150 – 740 AD and 760 AD and 780 AD and 800 AD
Part 1
   
Turn 147
The Battle of The Holy Foothill and The Battle of Joker, as seen on the Power graph. .


   
Gin-guelito had another Horse Archer nearby in the fog somewhere. Along with the Horse Archer I already knew was in Iago, it destroyed 1 Horse Archer and 1 Chariot of mine, and then they both retreated to Iago.
(Already Unlikely Attack) + (1 More Defender) + (2 Less Attackers) = GIVE UP!
So, the remaining 6 2-movers retreated. They instead participated in the general annihilation of all uncultured tile improvements.

Fortunately, Naufragar’s culture had not yet properly expanded into the vacuum left by the capture of Joker.
Also, Naufragar started to participate by pillaging the Stone Quarry.
Lots of my wounded units from the Battle of Joker were pillaging instead of healing.

I sent 1 of the 2 Celtic Workers captured last turn on a suicide mission to see the sights of the south. He did unfog some new tiles around Lake Othello, but I still think this was a silly move. . The details of those tiles weren’t important. Also, I already knew where Naufragar’s main army had to be. It was not necessary to actually see it this turn.

The rest of the doings and thinkings of this turn pale in comparison to what came next, so I’ll just move this report along already.


   
Turn 148.
I got the Esteemed Warlord event. Thank you, Engineering!
I got to choose between 118 free gold, 2 free Pikemen, and 1 Great Military Instructor in Ban at a cost of 295 gold. .

The Great Military Instructor is obviously the best reward, so obviously I wanted to choose it, but 295 gold is a lot of gold, about 4 turns-worth for me at the moment. Now, I’m not in a great hurry to claim a first-to bonus or unlock a new unit, but the upcoming technologies (Civil Service for Irrigation, Literature for Epics) will be very useful very quickly for development, and I’m already a bit behind in GNP and technology, I think. And 295 gold is just a lot of gold.
In the end, for better or worse, I felt like choosing an option for this event required choosing and committing to a Legal civic, Vassalage or Bureaucracy.
If I choose Vassalage, then Ban can produce Level 2 units with just a Barracks, and the Great Military Instructor only makes the difference between 5 EXP and 7 EXP, which is not worth it. If I choose Vassalage, I should not choose the Great Military Instructor.
If I choose Bureaucracy, then I should choose the Great Military Instructor; it would be worth the gold. However, I think I should not choose Bureaucracy. Mei is a poor Bureau-capital, since it focuses so much on specialists instead of tiles, so its production and commerce are mediocre. I would have to move the Palace somewhere, and the best choice would be Bolan-Mei. Bolan-Mei has excellent production, though still only mediocre commerce, and it would be an acceptable Bureau-capital but not a great one. But it would cost 200 production to move the Palace, and the new capital location would be worse for maintenance. Also, Vassalage has actual benefits too.
Immediately, Vassalage makes the difference to go from Level 1 units to Level 2 units in every city in my civilization without a Great Military Instructor, which is all but 1 or 2 cities. That’s equivalent to a lot of hammers. Eventually, Vassalage makes Bolan-Mei a Commando factory with 1 less settled Great General. Oh yes, I am plotting to make a Commando factory, maybe. It could be the game-winning move someday. 1 Great General is already settled there, so I need 6 or 4 more.

I chose Vassalage, so I chose the free stuff from this event, and I chose free gold instead of free Pikemen without much more thought. Though at a time like this, it might have been a mistake not to choose the free military units.


   
Then we had another Apostolic Palace vote: Stop trading with Miguelito.
I voted no, since Miguelito is the enemy of my enemy, and I might like for him to receive foreign aid. At this point I doubted we would ever fight again, and I thought about making peace this turn and sending him free Gold, Ivory, and surplus health foods next turn. But I did not defy, since it is not that important.
This resolution should fail. If even I don’t want it to happen, then why would anyone else but Naufragar want this to happen? But people are crazy, and Naufragar might have enough votes to do it all on his own. For the record, I only have 13 votes, from Mei.

…

While the screenshot shows this region, I should mention the other stuff that has been happening here.
Ban is in an involuntary culture war with Scharzbier for control of the Sheep. I don’t care if Commodore gets that tile, but I needed culture to fight Ankh-Morpork and Tortuga. Commodore will win when his Caste Artists gets Scharzbier to 3rd-ring.
Ban is in a voluntary culture war with Ankh-Morpork over the Copper. I thought I was doomed when Ankh-Morpork reached 1000 culture, which it did recently, but it turns out the next ring is at 5000, not 1000. . So, I will finally regain the Copper tile soon. Naufragar sent an Axemen to pillage it before than could happen. Whatever, I will build a Windmill there anyway.

A Celtic Axeman appeared from nowhere adjacent to Ban on Turn 146. I thought this was a clever attempt to surprise attack me by circumnavigating the world, but in hindsight it was obviously an unfortunate teleport when Naufragar declared war on them. . Anyway, I promoted Ban’s Crossbowman to Combat I and destroyed the Axeman.
Lastly, I am plotting to raze Tortuga with Guerilla II Crossbowman. They would start the turn hidden on the Gold, then move 3 tiles over the roads and hills to attack the lone Spearman in Tortuga. That is why my Worker is building a road along that path. There are no Guerilla II eligible Crossbowmen in the area yet, because I foolishly promoted the Crossbowman that destroyed the Celtic Axeman to Combat I instead of Guerilla I. More will come from the east, thanks to the Great Generals, one way or another. Of course, Naufragar can instantly eliminate this threat whenever he realizes it exists.



   
At this point on Turn 148, I was resigned to not capturing any more Celtic territory. Naufragar was going to win the race to Iago by half a turn, which would cut me off from the rest of the uncaptured Celtic cities. Nothing had changed to make me think that I could do any better in a war with Naufragar than a stalemate, but something had changed to make me think that the threat of stalemating him no longer gave me any leverage over him. After its defeats in The Battle of The Holy Foothill and The Battle of Joker, the Celtic army was pitiful. It was so pitiful that Naufragar could defeat it and conquer Celtia with a relatively small force while still keeping enough of his main army around Cathy Ames to hold me off.
I planned to simply defend Joker and Da-Mei against Naufragar, so I could make another binding Peace Treaty with him on Turn 152, so I could focus on other things while he finally eliminated Gin-guelito. For my part, “other things” could have been declaring war on Superdeath. He has been fighting with Gavagai (very impressive, Gavagai ), and his Crop Yield, MFG, and Power seemed as poor as Gin-guelito’s. Superdeath’s only advantage was Feudalism, and while that is a significant advantage, I thought it might be worth attacking him anyway. The other possibility was to just peacefully develop for a change. Build some Courthouses.

But then, on a whim, I sent my surviving suicidal Scout south to see the sights. He would probably survive, and he might see something interesting.
He saw that Iago was empty, of course.

Instantly, I realized that I could use my Great General in Joker to promote 1 of my 2-movers on the ruins of Old Mack to Morale, then move 3 tiles through hostile culture to capture Iago.
I could win the race to Iago after all. Should I win the race to Iago? Would it be worth it to win the race in this unexpected way?
Razing Iago would have been an ineffective spiteful move, and not worth expending a Great General. If I had a Combat Settler around, maybe it would have been more interesting, but I didn’t. Capturing Iago had to mean keeping Iago for it to be worth it.
I devised a plan.

[Magic Science]

Turn 147 and Turn 148 and Turn 149 and Turn 150 – 740 AD and 760 AD and 780 AD and 800 AD
Part 2
   
First, I would use my Great General to promote the Horse Archer 3 tiles from Iago to Morale.

However, it would be a waste to apply all 20 EXP to that 1 unit, since it only needed 3 more to reach the next promotion at 10, so I thought about which other units should share the tile. I decided to also apply some of the experience to 3 Crossbowmen from Joker that had 1 promotion pending and were close to another at 10, since they would become eligible for Guerilla II this way, and then could go back west to possibly menace Tortuga. The last bit of experience would go to my Medic I Chariot, who had started the turn in Joker, so it could take Medic II.

Then, DISASTER STRUCK!!! I decided at the last moment to actually attach the Great General to the Medic I Chariot, since it could then be upgraded to a Horse Archer for free. Cool, extra benefit, might as well. But I forgot that meant the Morale promotion would have to be applied to the Medic I Chariot too! And that Chariot had started the turn in Joker, 5 tiles from Iago! .

Fortunately, thanks to Engineering, that Chariot had only consumed 0.7 move to go 2 tiles over my roads, so with Morale it still had 2.3/3 move and could still move 3 tiles through hostile culture. That was stupid and close. .


   
Second, I captured Iago.

To stop Gin-guelito from recapturing Iago immediately on Turn 149, I garrisoned it with every 2-mover I had over the now-uncultured roads. That made for 1 Horse Archer and 5 Chariots, all well-promoted but still wounded from The Battle of Joker, against 1 Axeman, 1 Archer, and 1 Warrior from the Eventful Mine (there were 2 Workers on the tile to build a road), and 2 Horse Archers and 1 Axeman from farther south (Leonidas could give one of their Axemen Morale), and maybe more 2-movers in the fog.  I worried that it would be very close if they wanted it to be, but I hoped they would not even try to recapture Iago. After all, they already gave up on it and retreated, right? Why would it matter to them who captures it in the end after that? And all capturing it back from me would achieve is practically gifting it to Naufragar, at the cost of more Celtic units. I also offered Gin-guelito a Peace Treaty, just to make sure. There was still another Celtic city in the fog 2E of the Copper Mine that I wanted to capture from my position at Iago, but I thought Naufragar would not poach it even if I made a Peace Treat. His army needed to retreat to defend Cathy Ames from me too soon to capture it now, and after Naufragar and I made a Peace Treaty again, I could either win the race to that city, or Naufragar would leave it alone to avoid having his army trapped between the coast and my army at Iago when that next Peace Treaty ran out. Also, I would have bribed Gin-guelito with Gold and Ivory if I could have, but I was not willing to bribe them with money.

To stop Gin-guelito from recapturing Iago on a later turn, I sent 2 Crossbowmen, 1 Ballista Elephant, and 1 Spearman over the now-uncultured roads. They would arrive and lock the city down on the last third of Turn 149. They could have arrived immediately if they had been stationed on the ruins of Old Mack in advance (just imagine the city ruins weren’t already pillaged by me, ). Also, there was something about moving my Workers and even pillaging some roads just right to stop Naufragar’s units from pillaging the roads out from under that little force to delay it, I think? But I can’t quite remember what was going on. It was a complicated moment. Anyway, Naufragar’s units had definitely begun pillaging uncultured roads in my sphere of influence by this turn, though.

The next task was to prepare to stop Naufragar from capturing Iago in our next war, which was schedule to start on Turn 152. Iago would leave revolt and get first-ring culture in the nick of time, so I felt confident, but I still spent a long time agonizing over healing times and road building. The general plan was to position a sufficient anti-mounted force in Da-Mei and Iago, position the main force somewhere to cover all three of Joker, Da-Mei, and Iago, and try for white peace immediately.
A lot depended on where I saw Naufragar’s units go. At this point on Turn 148, I would be content with another stalemate and white peace because with control of Iago I was not cut off from the rest of the uncaptured Celtic cities. Also, in hindsight, I think I did not worry enough about Joker not controlling its first-ring tiles, but then the situation changed again so it didn’t matter.



   
Turn 149.
Tragedy! . Even through the veil of the diplomacy screen (rejected) and my innumerable tears, I could see that Gin-guelito had killed my entire 2-mover force and recaptured Iago. This was foreshadowed by PBSPY, so even before I played the turn, I was mentally drafting my rant about the foul unfairness of my foes. Why had Miguelito (and it is all Miguelito, not Ginger too, but I hate to stop using my cute combo name partway through the game) hurt me instead of Naufragar at every turn? The Battle of The Holy Foothill, The Battle of Joker, both absurd, stupid, petty things done against me at harm to himself out of unreasonable spite. And then the 3rd and worst, the recapture of Iago, which was nothing but a wrapped gift of the city to Naufragar. Where is your spite for the razer of your precious Pyramids, Miguelito!? WHY ME!?!? CURSE YOU ALLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!! .

However, PBSPY did not show the crucial detail that Naufragar had retreated from Iago over the now-uncultured road on the first third of Turn 149. Then everything made reasonable sense and was not so bad, and my melodramatic tragic rage evaporated instantly. .

It made perfect sense for Naufragar to retreat from Iago on the first third of Turn 149. There was no point in idling next to a city that he could no longer capture, so he might as well bring his main army back to Cathy Ames to position for the scheduled war against me. Unfortunately, this had not occurred to me at all on Turn 148.
Then Miguelito’s moves on the second third of Turn 149 make perfect sense too. With Naufragar’s army now 3 tiles away from Iago, Miguelito could recapture the city without immediately losing it again along with all the units that helped recapture it, so he might as well do it. Also, my garrison units were so weak that he actually suffered no losses to destroy them all. .

Overall, this was a sad outcome for a clever (I think) plan that cost a Great General to execute, but at least it’s not as bad as it could have been; Iago is not Naufragar’s, so the city is still in play. There is still a chance.
If not for the abortive earlier attempt to capture Iago with my mounted units, this plan could have succeeded. That plan cost me 1 Horse Archer, 1 Chariot, and multiples turns of healing for my remaining 2-movers. I should have known as soon as I saw the garrison of Iago on Turn 146 that overwhelming it with my current 2-movers was hopeless, and just let them heal in Joker instead of uselessly charging them in. Oh well.
If even 1 or 2 units of my main 1-mover force was closer to Iago, like the on the ruins of Old Mack, they could have garrisoned the city as well and stopped the recapture effort dead. Oh well.
Maybe I should have offered to pay money for peace?

   
At this point on Turn 149, I thought that after everything, the original plan might be back on. . Control Joker and Replacement Bibracte, gather my army there, threaten and stalemate Naufragar to negotiate for a fair share of the spoils of Celtia. However, there are new and newly seen difficulties.

A stalemate will be unpleasant for me at Joker, since it does not control its first-ring tiles in the south against Cathy Ames. Naufragar has the first strike directly against the city. At the time I thought for certain that my army could not withstand a first strike from his army, even while defending a city, so I thought I could not defend Joker and would have to sacrifice it. Only a small doomed garrison would protect Joker, while my main army would lurk behind or beside the city and try to hurt Naufragar enough on the counterattack. Ugh. It would be a messy and possibly unfavorable situation of back-and-forth unit trading all around. Fortunately, now I am not so sure.
Also, the negotiations would be extremely awkward, because whoever offers a Peace Treaty is a sucker, while whoever accepts a Peace Treaty is a winner. Strange but true! My main army and Naufragar’s main army would be positioned equidistant from Iago, so whichever army moves first is the one that will win the race to Iago by half a turn, barring 2-mover shenanigans. And the person who accepts a Peace Treaty is the person who can reasonably move their army first, because they are the ones who click the button to end the war and make us safe from each other. They can make the first move of the peace. Otherwise, the first person to move would just be making themselves vulnerable by putting their army out of position while the war continued. Their army would have to turn back.
The other thing is that neither of us own Iago (or the coastal city to its east. I think they are a package deal), so neither of us can include it in a Peace Treaty deal, so it is not guaranteed. Even if you are the person to accept the Peace Treaty, you are not certain to capture Iago, because the other guy might have a trick up his sleeve. Maybe 2-movers, maybe Galleys, maybe the other guy already moved his army towards Iago in secret, maybe something else. The point is, whoever ends up with Cathy Ames has a certain reward, while whoever ends up Iago only has an uncertain reward.

I wasn’t sure what to do about this. I thought about requesting Cathy Ames for a Peace Treaty every turn, so Naufragar could be the one to accept the Peace Treaty and probably win the race to Iago, but I just wasn’t sure.

…

.
There was a complicated frenzy of Workers and roads and pillaging and military units and healing happening in the background this turn. You should just assume there always is, but it’s not always worth explaining everything in detail.
The 4 units that were moving to reinforce Iago retreated, of course.
Naufragar’s Peace Treaty-protected units were pillaging my roads with impunity. One Chariot even went to my side of The Celtic Gate to pillage! There is a Hosavian Axeman around there as well. I have 6 Workers at the frontlines and more lurking relatively close behind, so I should be alright, but I have to be careful.
Everything is oriented around Turn 152.
If Naufragar’s pillagers don’t flee, then they will die on Turn 152, but I will have to send units to protect my Workers from them on that turn.
Joker came out of revolt this turn, and it was absolutely a terrible mistake not to drop everything else to instantly finish the Stone Quarry this turn instead of next turn. That was the difference between finishing Walls in Joker before EOT151 and EOT152. That might haunt me.

Lastly, there is the Western Front. Naufragar might threaten Ban again.
If you look closely beneath the unit details, on the far left, 1SW of the contested Copper, 2 Hosavian Workers are building a road. That must be what they are building. Naufragar could use that road to hit Ban with only 1 turn of warning if he has Engineering, and he might have Engineering, or he could discover it at any moment (PSEUDO-EDIT: The same is true of Horseback Riding). He is Spain with its Citadels. I have no definitive evidence either way, and I must respect the possibility. I want to pillage the road on the Copper. I will not reclaim it with my culture soon enough.
Meanwhile, my own Workers are building roads to enable the possible Guerilla attack on Tortuga, and also simply chopping a Forest for production.
2 Guerilla Crossbowmen have crossed into the west (1 stayed in Joker to heal). They switched with 2 less-promoted Crossbowmen coming east, so neither area has a different amount of Crossbowmen compared to otherwise, only a different amount of promotions. This was enabled by a Worker finishing a road for this 1 turn before Naufragar’s Axeman pillages it again.

I didn’t neglect to explain the frenzy details after all, did I? .



   
Turn 150.
BING_ac (Civac still logs in occasionally, and I think it is helpful to Bing) offers me a trade. I already give Crab to him and get Clam from Commodore, so I rejected it and did not reoffer. I hope he is not upset.