[PB69 SPOILERS] Magic Science and Nobody Else in Pitboss 69

[Magic Science]

Turn 147 and Turn 148 and Turn 149 and Turn 150 – 740 AD and 760 AD and 780 AD and 800 AD
Part 3
   
The Apostolic Palace resolution fails. Only this turn? Why? I still don’t understand it.
Gavagai is an amusing minion with his 4 votes. .
Naufragar, Pindicator, and BING_ac are the state Buddhists, so they have the real voting power. Commodore is a crazy Confucia-Buddhist, so he has a bit of voting power. There there is Superdeath, Gavagai, and me.
A 2/3 big voter combination could pass a resolution. Naufragar and BING_ac could do it alone, while the other 2/3 combinations would require a bit of help from the minor guys at least. But that’s not worth paying too close attention to, because population growth will change that before the next election.


   
The key event of the turn was Naufragar making peace with Gin-guelito. They have a binding Peace Treaty. This event surprises and worries me.
I think this binding Peace Treaty commits Naufragar to fighting me. It is like a reversal of our roles. I am the one who will conquer all of Celtia for myself if he doesn’t stay at war and threaten me to make me stop, and I am the one who wants nothing more than a blank binding Peace Treaty to enable me to do so. When it was the other way around, it was the geography that meant Naufragar would conquer all of Celtia and leave me nothing unless I threatened him (Cathy Ames + Iago cutting off the other 4 cities, and he would win the race to Iago), but this Peace Treaty of his with Gin-guelito serves the same effect while it lasts.
This increases the danger for me. Previously, when it was the other way around, if Naufragar ever caught me and put me in danger, then I could just make a Peace Treaty with him. He would accept since that is what he wanted to be free to conquer Celtia, and I would escape the danger. That is like what happened at Ban. Now I cannot do that, since a Peace Treaty benefits me and not him. Why would you give your enemy what they want if you have them on the ropes?

I thought about offering Gin-guelito a Peace Treaty of my own. They would accept immediately, and it might avoid the fighting with Naufragar. What would be the point in fighting me to stop me from conquering Celtia, if I already stopped myself from conquering Celtia with a Peace Treaty? But I decided against it. That would be a long, slow step backwards. Naufragar would be free to attack Gin-guelito a turn before me, so he could win the race to Iago, but I would threaten him too soon after that while his army was still marching to Iago, and here we go again. That’s no good. I need this to be over.
This prolonged conflict has not been hugely costly in terms of unit losses and unit production and maintenance costs, but still, I have suffered significant losses, and I been building more military and less infrastructure for the past 15 turns or so. This is taking a lot of time. I need peace so I can use my high production to build infrastructure everywhere, especially Courthouses, and catch up in GNP and technology so I am not too slow to Knights. And I just want to have my Celtic spoils already! .

I think/hope Naufragar is planning something like this: He will declare war on Turn 152, as scheduled, but he will not do much. He will watch for weakness, of course, but mainly he will put his army in Cathy Ames and stare me down. I worry that “staring mine down” might involve the loss of Joker, though. Then on Turn 157, he will offer me a white binding Peace Treaty. This will allow me to capture Iago and the city to its east (I deduce it is Ursula) without Naufragar’s interference, but then Naufragar’s Peace Treaty with Gin-guelito will expire and he will swoop in to capture the rest.
Final Spoils: 4 cities for each, perfectly fair. Acceptable to me. A result enabled by enduring a few uncomfortable turns of war to allow timing the Peace Treaties between the 3 of us in precisely the right way to make greed and treachery impossible.


   
I might have forgotten it in the chaos, but I think I have never yet outright asked Naufragar for Cathy Ames in the diplomacy screen. There was never a moment when I thought he would possibly accept. Still, maybe I should ask even when I know he won’t accept just to indicate what I want. I’m not an angst-maximizing maniac, I have a rational goal, but maybe Naufragar could use help to see that.
The Cow and Fish stand for Iago.
The Sheep for Sheep stand for peace after I have what I want.


   
Domestic unit bubbles selected.
The Stone Quarry at Joker was completed this turn, 1 turn too late. Maybe I can get away with it.
A road between Joker and Da-Mei along the Plains Hill was finished to replace what was pillaged. The army around Joker must be able to quickly reach Da-Mei to protect it.
The last of the veterans of The Battle of Joker at last ceased their zany schemes and all settled in to heal. Just in time.
Naufragar has a Chariot and an Axeman north of Joker pillaging the vital mountain pass roads. Those units have time to escape to safety, but they might stay and pillage until the last moment. It would force me to detach some units to protect my Workers from them on the turn of declaration.

Tortuga is still defended by only 1 Spearman. Promising. .


   
Lastly, Espionage. It is annoying. A secondary reason why I badly want Courthouses.
Gin-guelito have research visibility on me because they have nothing better to do, but that doesn’t matter. Information cannot save them.
The problem is Naufragar, main rival present and future, having research visibility. Superdeath, future victim, does too. Naufragar snuck up on me with this, and is #1 Priority… except that Commodore spent espionage on me for no reason and sneakily denied me his graphs as well! . That is cheaper so I might as well fix that first. +4 vs. +4, how long until I deny Naufragar research visibility? And for that matter is he making only +4? I need to pay more attention. .
I have not been thinking or doing much about research lately, partly because of indecisiveness and partly because of need to save for emergency upgrade, but I still don’t like Naufragar seeing it. I don’t know what sinister effect it could have, but I bet he can think of something. He knows I have Code of Laws now? Anything else? He probably already knew I had Engineering.

[Magic Science]

This is so tense. I know Naufragar already played Turn 152 and declared war. It looks like he even reported. But I still have to wait for Migueltio.
That's not a complaint, Miguelito has been fine recently. But my units are dead or alive right now and I can't find out yet.

[Qgqqqqq]

Thanks for the reporting!

[Magic Science]

Thanks for the reporting!

You are welcome. . I am happy to do so to increase the enjoyment people get from the game, including me.


I know from PBSPY Naufragar did not capture Joker, but there are plenty of terrible possibilities that does not rule out.
Enjoy your dramatic irony.

[Magic Science]

Turn 151 – 820 AD
   
Info Screen Power Graph on the eve of the third war with Naufragar, for reference.


   
Here we go. .
THE HIVELIKE, SCUMMY, AND VILLAINOUS ARMY OF THE HOSAVIAN EMPIRE, at Cathy Ames assembled:
• 2 Crossbowmen
• 16 Axemen
• 13 Catapults
• 5 Spearmen
• 2 Chariots
That is approximately what I expected.
I don’t know exactly how well-promoted it can be. Naufragar’s army has not actually fought as much as mine, but a lot of those units might have been produced in a city with a settled Great General.

Earlier in the day, during a slow moment at work, I constructed a quick Vodka simulation of what would happen if Naufragar’s main army attacked my main army in Joker, based on my memory of the two forces.
Vodka told me that if Naufragar attacked Joker, then he would lose. His hitters would trade poorly with my defenders even after 13 Catapult attacks. This seemed unbelievable, which is what prompted my posts earlier.

Later in the day, when I got back home and started playing the turn, I carefully constructed a better Vodka simulation, based on exact information from the current turn. This took a while. The simulation told me the same thing as before, that Naufragar would lose, and I still couldn’t think of any reason that it would be totally wrong. I guess Vodka has the right idea after all. Excellent!

Upon reflection, this does make sense, I think.
The 13 Catapults will attack first and face my Crossbowmen, so all the Catapults will die.
Then, Naufragar’s 2 Crossbowmen will attack and probably do well and kill 2 units.
But then, the 16 Axemen will attack, and it makes sense for them to perform poorly. Even if my Crossbowmen were reduced to 50% health by collateral damage, they will still have good odds against the Axemen. Once his Axemen break through my Crossbowmen, they will do better, but not good enough. Overall, a bad battle for them.
Then the 5 Spearmen can attack, but even if every Crossbowman is horribly mauled, my 6 Catapults, which should be unwounded, will be there to fight them at decent odds at least.
So, the simulation’s predictions make enough sense for me.

The simulation could still be proven dead wrong, though, I know.
The simplest and worst way would be if Naufragar has many 2-movers hiding close enough to attack. He could have Horseback Riding. But I have 3 Ballista Elephants and 1 Pikeman in Joker. I think this is a risk I must take.
Maybe I underestimated his promotions, or misapplied them. Maybe more of his Axemen will have 3 promotions than I thought. Maybe he will promote his Catapults to City Raider I instead of Barrage II, and that will work better. I did not test every possibility. I think this is a risk I must take.


   
THE WORLD-HISTORIC VETERAN ARMY OF THE CAMBODIAN NUMERAL SYSTEM, in Joker assembled:
• 3 Ballista Elephants
• 11 Crossbowmen
• 7 Axemen
• 6 Catapults
• 1 Spearman (can’t upgrade to a Pikeman after consuming all move, )
• 1 Chariot
• 1 Scout

It would be outrageously greedy to try to save promotions for healing, so every unit was promoted as much as it could be.
For Crossbowmen, City Garrison II is the best promotion. However, the war won’t end with The Second Battle of Joker, and City Garrison II will be useless for counterattacking Naufragar or conquering Gin-guelito. In the end, I promoted about half of my Crossbowmen to City Garrison II. The deciding factor was if the unit already had Shock or not; Crossbowmen without Shock took Shock, which will work just as well against Axemen hitters. The City Garrison II ones can take care of the Catapults’ direct attacks no problem.
Special honorable mention to the 1 Crossbowman in the city who received experience from my Great General on Turn 148. He promoted to Guerilla I and II. .
For Axemen and Ballista Elephants, it was simple because there were no applicable defensive promotions for them.
For Catapults, I realized I should promote them all to Barrage II now because it includes +10% vs. Melee, just in case.

The 3 uncultured sections of the roads from Joker towards Bie and Bolan-Mei are still pillaged. Peace Treaties between foes really let you do the most outrageous things. . Those 3 roads should be repaired immediately next turn when Naufragar can no longer freely pillage them again, so the Worker are already standing ready on the tiles. 1 Guerilla II Crossbowman and 1 Spearman, which are reinforcements anyway and were not subtracted from the defenders at Joker, , will protect the Workers against Naufragar’s 1 Chariot and 1 Axeman. I expect for his units to give up and retreat. Meanwhile, that Catapult just blundered into the midst of things. Wrong place, wrong time.

Da-Mei is garrisoned only by 1 newly upgraded Pikemen and 2 Archers. Its real defense is that any 1-mover army approaching it cannot avoid stepping on flat land and giving the first strike to my main force from Joker. So, the garrison is only there to stop surprise unsupported 2-mover strikes. I think it still weak just for that purpose if Naufragar does have Engineering and Horseback Riding, so it could use reinforcements over the coming turns. I like the idea of stationing my rebuilt 2-mover force there.
The Walls will be done in 3 turns, not 4, because next turn the Workers finish a Plains Hill Mine 1NW. Someday Da-Mei will get to work its Rice Farm, though at least that improvement is already doing good work by providing the rest of Cambodia with +2 Health.


Lastly, the western front by Ban is quiet. I thought about moving some of the defenders over there to the tense east instead, but I don’t know, Naufragar might try something sneaky over there over all his roads. The defenders of the west will stay in the west for now.
Oh, and Tortuga has 2 Crossbowmen in its garrison now, so the Guerilla II attack was canceled. That was why I felt fine sending 1 of the 2 Guerilla II units back towards Joker. Did you know Guerilla II and roads do not stack? Anyway, the 1 Guerilla II Crossbowman who is actually in the west will probably wait for the perfect moment to pillage one of Naufragar’s Plains Hill Roads and slow him down.

…

If Naufragar attacks Joker, he might lose, I hope. He might lose badly enough that I can counterattack and get Cathy Ames and/or compel a Peace Treaty.
If Naufragar moves east towards Bolan-Mei, I will smash him before he can attack the city.
If Naufragar moves west towards Ban, I will leave a sufficient garrison in Joker and move west as well. His army cannot beat mine there, even with a half-turn head-start, even if he does have Engineering.

But if Naufragar attacks Joker, he might win, I fear.
Maybe he has hidden Horse Archers. Maybe he can do something clever with promotions and attack order that I did not think of or could not simulate. Maybe he will just be lucky. Maybe I was misled by or misled myself with Vodka after all. It could happen.
If Naufragar attacks Joker and wins, he will massacre my main army, by definition. Then he will capture Joker. The few or no survivors of my main army will be helpless to stop him from capturing Da-Mei and Da itself. I am not sure how soon my Serfdom economy could rebuild enough of a defensive army to stop him, but I think he would stop there anyway. Having totally cut me off from Celtia, he would turn and conquer Gin-guelito. Ultimately, Naufragar would gain everything from Celtia and I would gain nothing. I think that would make Naufragar the favorite to win and me an intact underdog.
My point is, the stakes are high indeed. .

[Magic Science]

The main army that gets the first strike against the enemy main army wins.

Therefore, if you put your main army in a place that the enemy main army can get the first strike against, you lose.

Joker does not control 2 of its 1st-ring tiles in the south. Cathy Ames does.

Therefore, Naufragar can get the first strike against the city of Joker.

So, if I put my main army in the city of Joker, I lose, right?


I'm betting I was wrong.

[El Grillo]

And some say stack-based combat isn't as interesting as 1UPT.

[Magic Science]

Turn 152 to Turn 156 – 840 AD to 920 AD
Part 1
   
Turn 152.
The situation before I did anything.

The passive-aggressive pillagers retreated.
The main army DID NOT attack Joker. That was both a relief and a disappointment, . Relief because my army survived; my simulations were correct after all, and Naufragar did not have many mounted units in the fog. Disappointment because I half-hoped he would attack and lose, but not much of a disappointment because I knew he had all the same combat knowledge and tools that I had. Anyway, then his main army moved 1 tile west.
The Guerilla II Crossbowmen around Ban were a frustrating surprise.

Then my Sentry Chariot checked around Da-Mei just in case and found nothing at all.


   
The situation after I did everything.

If Naufragar could not capture Joker (and he would’ve if he could’ve, so that means he couldn’t’ve), then we were in a stalemate. I expected this to last for 5 turns, until Turn 157. Then Naufragar would offer me a Peace Treaty, which would free my army with just enough time for it to capture Iago and Ursula, while Naufragar’s Peace Treaty with Gin-guelito would end with just enough time to capture Javert, Creon, and Gendo farther south. In the meantime, my goal was to at least maintain the stalemate in my favor. I had to avoid offering Naufragar any clever opportunities to break the stalemate and hurt me in some way.

The Guerilla II Crossbowmen already represented a break in the stalemate, in a minor way, or at least an unexpected shift of its resting condition. They had no hope of capturing any cities in Western Cambodia, but they could run rampant and pillage tiles. I had no good answer to them; I had nothing with odds to win against them. In the end, I realized I could place units 1W and 2E of Ban and block the Guerilla II Crossbowmen. They would have to attack my units, step on flatland and die, or take the long way around, and they didn’t have very good odds on the attack either. That would limit the pillaging losses to 4 Windmills and 1 Gold Mine at Ban.
Yes, there were actually no units 1W of Ban on this turn, , but I wasn’t quite ready to defend the city as well that tile yet, and I thought Naufragar would stop to smell the roses and pillage the Windmills and give me 1 more turn rather than race to that key tile immediately.

Naufragar’s main army also could have broken the stalemate, in a way, by maneuvering towards Ban. If it moved 1 more tile west, then my main army would still have to remain in Joker, because Naufragar could have had Engineering for 3 tiles of movement over roads. From there, he could begin to race to Ban. If he had Engineering, his main army could attack Ban before my main army could arrive to garrison the city or pre-emptively attack the attackers, so it was within his power to raze the city. However, I thought he would not do it. Too militarily expensive, though as I type this, I notice the possibility of pillaging the hill roads with his Guerilla II Crossbowmen to slow my main army enough for all the survivors of his main army to escape. He could have lost only the units necessary to defeat Ban’s garrison alone. .
Anyway, Naufragar didn’t even try anything. Also, he might not have had Engineering at all. I am still not sure if he does as of Turn 156. .


   
Finally, I offered some Peace Treaties.

I demanded Cathy Ames (pictured above). Cathy Ames is what I wanted most, so it was worth a try, right? But I knew he would reject it.
Then I offered 10 gold and 10 GPT. I thought this would be rejected too, but it was supposed to signal my willingness to pay for peace. If Naufragar was interested, then this offer could start negotiations.
(I would have offered gold and GPT in exchange for Cathy Ames between those other two Peace Treaties, but that is not allowed, )
Lastly, I offered 5 gold. This was just supposed to signal timing. I planned to offer 4 gold on Turn 153, 3 gold on Turn 154, etc., until Turn 157 when I thought he would finally agree to make a Peace Treaty.
I did not offer a white Peace Treaty. .


   
It was absurd for me to be training so many units still, right? It felt absurd. I had more than enough units to conquer Gin-guelito, so what was I training these new ones for? I thought it was important to think it back all the way through.

I was training them to deal with Naufragar, of course. However, it was useless to try to get a quantitative advantage over him, because he could train new units about as fast as me. Neither of us would ever get ahead that way, so I had to avoid falling into that mental trap. Instead, the point of these units was to try to get a qualitative advantage over him. Specifically, after the doubly-failed attack on Iago cost me literally every 2-mover I had, I needed to rebuild my 2-mover force to get those tactical opportunities back. That is what all those Horse Archers were for.
With this in mind, I thought I might finally build Courthouses instead of units after this round of Horse Archers was done even if the war continued. More units would just be a futile, quantitative thing. But I thought Bolan-Mei might keep training units anyway, because the Great General was settled there, and maybe I could use one more round of Catapults. Collateral is qualitative, and I only had 9 Catapults. .

…

Between Turn 152 and Turn 153 I spent a while worrying about the fact that the vital choice was in Naufragar’s hands. “He could choose to just stalemate and stagnate forever,” I thought, “He might never be willing to give up any Celtic land to me, even for his own gain of Celtic land in turn. He might be irrational and frustrated about the comparison of the current situation to what he would have got if I did nothing against him (all of Celtia), and play chicken and refuse any kind of peace that allows me Cathy Ames or Iago or anything or more. Was it really a good idea to count on Naufragar to do the mutual right thing here?”

Also, I realized that my Guerilla II Crossbowmen in Joker could attack Cathy Ames in 1 turn. Just something to keep in mind, just in case. .

And regardless of anything else, Joker would have Walls after this turn, so my mistake about the Stone Quarry was not punished.

But then…


   
PEACE!!! . .

Naufragar accepted my offer of 10 gold and 10 GPT for a Peace Treaty. Truly shocking and excellent! . But 110 gold is nothing compared to all of Celtia, which is effectively what he gave me. He would have accepted a white Peace Treaty, I think (I should have offered one), because Naufragar thinks there is a catch. He might be right. I must prove him wrong, then win the game with 2 civs of land. Here we go.

The catch might simply be that conquering Celtia stretches me in a ridiculous indefensible arc around Naufragar, so he can take all my spoils from me after our Peace Treaty expires. . But I am not sure about that. My main army that will conquer Celtia can remain in Celtia to defend it. It was sufficient to defend Joker, after all. Then I can train a whole new army, similar to the old army, to defend Joker. Meanwhile, Ban’s garrison will be about the same: not enough to stop Naufragar from razing it, but enough to make razing it very expensive. Also, there can be some rearranging between those 3 groups before Turn 163, so each can have just the right amount and composition possible.
The catch could be that “Old Mack” tile. If Naufragar gains control of it when Cathy Ames reaches 3rd-ring culture, then my Celtic conquests will be cut off by land. During peace without Open Borders, my units could not transfer back and forth at all. During war, it would still not be practical to transfer. I estimated that Cathy Ames was making +3 culture and had about 50 culture on Turn 153, so I thought Da-Mei could get enough culture quick enough to win the 2nd-ring vs. 3rd-ring fight. But I knew Cathy Ames could increase its culture unpredictably, so it was still a risk. Also, in the worst-case scenario, Da-Mei is my only city on that water body and it cannot build a fleet of Galleys on its own. :fear:.

Should I have let fear of “catches” to this incredible deal stop me from trying to conquer all of Celtia? NO!! This is it, this is the turning point. If I pull this off, if I conquer Celtia and keep it, I become the favorite to win. I could win the game! . I must try.

[Magic Science]

Turn 152 to Turn 156 – 840 AD to 920 AD
Part 2
   
The defenders of Joker became the invaders of Celtia. Some new 2-movers arrived in time to join the stack, including Sentry and Medic Chariot candidates. There were also some more units a turn or more back, including 3 Horse Archers that could catch up in time to attack Iago. PSEUDO-EDIT: 4 Combat Workers were ready to catch up as well.

The defenders of Iago included 5 Horse Archers (and 4 Combat Workers), so I had cause to regret my unit composition. There should have been a bit more anti-mounted strength included, like 1 more Pikeman. I knew before that Gin-guelito had unlocked Horse Archers as their best military unit. . I spent a while puzzling and worrying about a Horse Archer attack going around my invading stack to hit Da-Mei or Joker and/or the Workers. One of their Horse Archers had Morale too.
In the end, I left nothing behind at Old Mack this turn. I doubted they would throw away all their Horse Archers to attack me, and I figured I had just enough to defeat 5 Horse Archers on the Rice anyway.
3 Horse Archers and 1 Ballista Elephant by Joker, 2 Horse Archers that could backtrack from the main stack, Archery units, upgrade possibilities…


   
Turn 154.
Suddenly, BING_ac had a threatening Power. I knew they had Machinery and Feudalism already, so they might have been Guilds and that might have been Knights. Superdeath was a better target than me, but BING_ac might not agree. They could see the feeble garrison of Da, and Da-Mei for that matter.
For a while, I had been been disregarding BING_ac as a contender despite their good GNP, MFG, and Crop Yield because they seemed passive and I lack confidence in their main turn-player. Bing, this is your chance to prove me wrong. If you do, please do so against Superdeath! .


   
Open Borders to spy for Knights on the border.
Clam for Sheep to signify peaceful desire because he did not have Fish or Crab or Sheep himself. I realize now that I should have offered Corn for Corn or Cow for Cow or Pig for Pig. .
Please and thank you attack Superdeath, I am very busy and/but he is very weak. .


   
Gin-guelito retreated from Iago with their Horse Archers and most everything else.
I advanced.

Iago was still defended by an Archer and a Spearman, which would have been annoying and inefficient to destroy, I think.
The threat of immediate overwhelming retaliation from me meant my Sentry Chariot and Scout were safe to leave the main stack for a little more information.
I noticed this turn that Naufragar and Gin-guelito had Open Borders again, so Gin-guelito could try a crazy Horse Archer attack from within Naufragar’s culture, but there was nothing special I could do against that besides what I was already doing. And it was unlikely. Naufragar roaming with impunity in Celtic culture and watching my every move and positioning for the perfect pillages was the more realistic concern.

Also, you can see from the “T155” signs that I was plotting the course of the overall campaign. The plan was to capture Iago, then split forces to capture Ursula (Turn 157) with the lesser force and Javert (Turn 158, raze?) then Creon (Turn 160, raze?) with the greater force. Gendo in the far south would likely be left alive for later so all my units could be ready to fight Naufragar by Turn 163. Gendo would be quite safe from poaching by Naufragar as long as I controlled Javert and Creon or their replacements north of it, so delay would cause no problem there. However, Gin-guelito could be annoying in their survival there with their remaining units in war or in peace with their Settler.


   
Still Turn 154.

I had almost 1000 gold saved, and I figured it was time to start spending it on something, right?
Civil Service and Aesthetics Literature were still what I wanted most for development purposes, but I didn’t really need them that badly. I had already unlocked Courthouses, Markets, Libraries, and Monasteries for infrastructure, and in some cities I could switch tiles to reduce hammers in favor of food, and I could build Stables, and it would make sense to keep building some units in some cities anyway too. The point is, I had enough technology to make peaceful development very profitable already. Civil Service and Aesthetics Literature would be nice but not necessary.

So, I thought about going for Guilds. Naufragar did not have Feudalism, but he did have Machinery, and if he ever got Guilds before me, then I would be absolutely screwed. On the other hand, if I got Guilds before him, that could be just the thing I need to beat his “catch” and defend my indefensible civilization. Maybe the advantage of Knights would even be enough to capture Cathy Ames? .
I decided to go for Guilds.
Discovering Guilds in time to have any effect on the inevitable battle with Naufragar for Celtia will require using my Great Merchant (did I ever bother to mention I have a Great Merchant? ) for a Trade Mission, but that’s fine. He was otherwise being saved for a Golden Age, but beating Naufragar and keeping Celtia is much more important. The most profitable destination is Commodore’s capital of Heifweizen with its Temple of Artemis (hence the screenshot), and a Trade Mission there will produce lots more gold than I need for Guilds. The excess could be used to quickly discover Civil Service and Aesthetics Literature as well, or more likely to pay for many upgrades.

This Trade Mission will require Commodore’s cooperation, and in hindsight I should have thought more about that issue and rather or not he will indeed cooperate. I just assumed he would…
But that pales in comparison to the other error of indecision. You see, I didn’t actually start researching Feudalism on Turn 154, , or even on Turn 155, , but not until Turn 156. Why? No reason. I was just incredibly stupid for no reason and refused to make up my mind. It’s not like I was waiting for more gold or new information, I just caved to my natural inclination for indecision.
I think it is no exaggeration to say that this 2-turn delay of Guilds might turn out to be a game-losing move. Guilds could have been EOT160 instead of EOT162. Again, the war begins again Turn 163. And it was for nothing.
I was also indecisive about my Great Merchant and did not move him forward on Turn 155, but that probably won’t matter. I still won’t run out of gold before his Trade Mission is complete.

PSEUDO-EDIT: Also, unlocking Longbowmen is handy as well because Naufragar is adding more Crossbowmen to his army. I can upgrade Archers to them.

[Magic Science]

Turn 152 to Turn 156 – 840 AD to 920 AD
Part 3
   
Turn 155.
I got another fun, positive Random Event. . This time it was a thoughtless one.
Also, observe my Moai Statues city working only 2 Coastal tiles, for now. .


   
   
I echoed both deals.
Crab for Crab was a no-brainer. It meant demilitarization, which I desperately wanted to continue over here. Maybe I should reduce the garrison of Bolan-Bei to a single Archer?
Spices for Gold is useless long-term. I have a source of Spices in my territory, and I have Hereditary Rule, so there should be no happiness problems. However, right now I do have unhappy citizens. I don’t have Calendar and I need to research other things, and I cannot afford to let happiness concerns dictate my unit movements. So I echoed this deal too.
I am glad that something like the old trading situation between me and Pindicator was restored. I think it was a mistake to aggravate him and let it lapse earlier. I should have re-proposed Spices for Ivory after he refused to switch to paying money and discovered Iron Working, and I cannot remember why I didn’t. Was something stopping me?
Anyway, in recent times I would have proposed something like this myself sooner, but Pindicator had been trading his extra Spices to Gavagai for a little while. But then he declared war on Gavagai recently, so I guess that brief trade was misdirection, or maybe some complex move against Commodore.

Also, BING_ac accepted my Open Borders + Clam for Sheep deal.

And I had a Wine for Silver deal with Gavagai that will be cancelled soon when he loses Arretium, causing net happiness to decrease by 1 nationwide (-2 loss of Forge resources, +1 return of only Wine).


   
Gin-guelito fully abandoned Iago. I think this was a mistake.
I captured the city and kept it because it is the in the perfect place on a hill already. Also, I only had 1 Combat Settler.
The fleeing units foolishly went to Tin Mine, so my Crossbowmen could chase them down and destroy them when Iago’s culture fell.
Lastly, I sent my Sentry Chariot south to the Plains Hill, and wow that’s a lot of information! . I figured what I could see was the entire Celtic army.

Overall, I counted 9 Horse Archers, 8 Axemen, 1 Spearman, 1 Warrior, and 4 Workers.


   
This is what happened in the end. It felt like my actions took on a life of their own during this turn, . I worried over this one for a long while. The conquest of Celtia is inevitable, but I desperately needed it to be as quick and cheap as humanly possible, and those 9 Horse Archers were a serious problem.

It was not necessary to advance beyond Iago towards Javert and Creon this turn. Departing this turn from 1NW of Iago and departing next turn from Iago itself would both reach that southern Plains Hill, the one in Celtic culture (southern Celtia is as astonishingly flat place) on Turn 156. However, I wanted to protect my Sentry Chariot, and it didn’t quite register at first that I had to protect it from 9 Horse Archers and 8 Axemen! That is what I mean by “life of its own”. Once the first few “protecting” units went there, I had no choice but to send even more to protect the protectors! In the end, I was really worried about the safety of that stack. .
Iago itself was fine. 1 Ballista Elephants, 1 Pikeman (freshly upgraded), some Crossbowmen and Axemen, and 9 Catapults. Gin-guelito had little chance of doing much damage and no chance of capturing the city, I thought.
1E of Iago was the weak point. 2 Crossbowmen, 1 badly wounded, protected by only 1 Spearman. It was also the least important point, and there was nothing I could do but hope.
Finally, there was 1 victorious Crossbowman to protect on Tin Mine, but really the Horse Archers went there to threaten Ursula. Gin-guelito had the power to keep it safe by upgrading the Warrior to a Spearman (they actually had a decent gold income) and stuffing it with Horse Archers, but I thought it was worth it to threaten in combination with protecting the victorious Crossbowman. It would force them to spend gold and move their Horse Archers out of position.
I thought maybe they would make a mistake, if I gave them a plausible opportunity. .

Lastly, I decided this turn that the southern border city against Naufragar should be on a hill, so Javert and Creon had to burn to make room for a new city on the southern Plains Hill. This meant giving up 1 Plains Sheep, but it was worth it for security. Then Replacement Creon could be settled 1 tile east of the original, on the coast, when the next war was over.
Meanwhile, Ursula would be kept if the state of the war against Gin-guelito allowed it, and razed otherwise. It would be fine either way, since it would be nice to start developing it sooner rather than later, but it is not on the border with Naufragar and therefore not especially contested or militarily important.

Really lastly, note Naufragar’s 3 filthy Chariots lurking around, waiting to pillage. . I repeat, enforced peace between foes lets you get away with the most outrageous things.