[SPOLERS] yuris125, Pitboss 71. The battle Warrior of Light is unlikely to win

[Miguelito]

Sequential mostly benefits the defender though, doesn't it?

[yuris125]

I really don't care about who benefits from turn order / turn mode we're using. I just don't want to deal with double moves. Especially when this is supposed to be a surprise attack, and I can easily see Thoth playing the turn before the attack last, and then playing again after the turn roll before I get a chance to grab it. Avoiding situations like this is why I have strong preference for sequential

[Tarkeel]

If you want, I can say something in the tech thread tomorrow, so it's not directly linked to this activity.

[yuris125]

Thanks Tarkeel! Let's wait for a couple days, I'm not fully committed to this attack yet and there's a realistic chance that the last couple chops have to be redirected into a settler. If Thoth adds just one spear to city defenders, attack becomes problematic (at the very least I can't rely on a pure chariot force anymore); 2 spears and I have to call it off. And of course, now that the build-up started, my power graph will be a straight upwards line for several turns in a row. If Thoth is aware of my land quality and how desirable his city is for me, he's bound to react

With our turn pace, I expect we'll know tomorrow if the attack is viable, and if it is, you posting in tech thread will be appreciated!

[yuris125]

I'm probably overreacting with this turn order situation. If Thoth realises I'm preparing an attack on him, he likely will make as much effort as me to stick to the turn order, or may even be the one asking for a switch to sequential (he was the other player with strong preference for sequential turns). If he doesn't realise and doesn't reinforce the city, double move like won't matter

For now, the city is still defended with an archer + axe pair which I can beat, and Ishgard is scheduled to produce a chariot every turn for the next 4 turns. Also put a quick archer in the queue in Old Sharlayan before library




The land to Thoth's north. Obviously, this is just the coastal tiles, and the land is always greener on the other side. But this is what I've seen

[yuris125]

Questions to ponder: I'm about to finish Masonry - what do I research next? And what do I do if the attack on Thoth has to be called off?

Unfortunately, I can't come up with a good answer to the latter. Superdeath is 12 tiles away across rough terrain, not easy for a chariot force to reach. I'm also 90% sure he's the player with HBR (between score and power graph increases and the fact that it's just a tech that makes sense for him). Sending a chariot force against keshiks doesn't sound like a smart idea. The only other target is Bing, but he's across even greater distance (think it's around 16 tiles), don't think taking his land and holding it is realistic, not even mentioning distance maintenance his cities would incur. Moreover, as the latest screenshots show, I have naval trade connection with Bing, and with the distance between us and little land worth competing for, we could be trade partners. If we can overcome the distrust from my war declarations earlier. In fact, I wanted to offer him a fish or fish this turn, but he didn't show any tradable resources, guess his coastal city is not connected to the trade network yet. In any case, I see Bing as a prospective trade partner more than as an attack target

Bottom line is, I think Thoth is the only viable target for military action, be it with the chariot blitz I'm attempting, or with a more protracted war later on

This means that the next tech likely has to be Construction. Even if I can take the border city, there's every chance I will have to go after his capital as well, and that almost certainly cannot be taken without catapults. It is a 15 turns research at the current rate (probably will be less when the library finishes in Old Sharlayan), but I don't see anything more beneficial to go for. Mysticism branch still looks near-useless, with Oracle falling and Monarchy not very attractive for my land. Civil Service via Currency and CoL is the next big goal, but I need more land first, so military tech takes priority. Metal Casting is another tech I could reasonably go for, and Colossus would be good for me if I could get it; the concern is that it is also a long research (12 turns at the current rate), someone already has it and Colossus won't be uncontested, and again, it doesn't do much to help me secure more land

Ultimately it all comes down to the same question - how do I secure more land? And however much I think about it, Construction has to be the way. Even if it is a long research

One last thing I keep coming back to - how much would I benefit from Pyramids, and is it a play worth making? Thing is, with the land I currently have, I just don't see working that many specialists. Old Sharlayan doesn't have the food. Kugane does, but it's getting Moai and will want to work water tiles. Ishgard's foreseeable future is working its 3 good tiles and whipping for size 5 to 3. If I settle the icy sheep city, it will be the same. I guess it could work Representation-boosted scientists instead of whipping, but are the beakers I will get from those scientists worth the investment? If I do take Thoth's city, can claim some of the land to his north, and that land is good enough to make more specialists viable, Representation will be worth more. But I feel like putting a couple chops into a faster library and the rest into catapults will pay off faster. You all dear lurkers be the judges of whether I'm undervaluing Pyraminds, but don't think I will go for it

[yuris125]

Thoth offered fish for fish, which I obviously cannot in good faith reciprocate. He also settled a 4rd city, in a spot which I would've liked for myself if we were to share the land to his north

I hope it doesn't look personal, when I plan an early attack on Thoth in both games I played since my return from retirement. It really isn't. This thread goes in depth on why it has to happen

That said, I do wonder if me not reciprocating a fish for fish will prompt Thoth to put more defenders into his city. I currently have 4 chariots; calculations show that I lose 2.5 on average against the two defenders he currently has. I have ~70% chance of taking the city with 5; the 6th one brings it to over 85%. I think I go with 5 though, if Thoth doesn't add defenders - feels like I really am on a clock, and if I fall just short, hopefully he doesn't have enough units in reserve to reinforce against a follow-up

[yuris125]

And there we have it




The turn after I turned down fish for fish, and the turn before I would've been able to attack

I cannot come up with a reasonable stack composition to crack these defenders. Even 2 axes + 5 chariots + 2 archers is just 70% to succeed, and that assumes no extra defenders - with a size 5 city, Thoth can definitely whip at least one more

So I guess the fallback plan is to settle icy sheep and wait for catapults

This is Thoth's 4th city I mentioned last night




As I said, I wanted this spot for myself after taking Filthy Radicals. The idea was, north was still likely to be blocked off by culture from his capital, but with these two cities, I could control enough of the sea to have naval connection with future coastal cities. Guess that's just another city I will have to take

Workboat ran into the end of the sea. This body of water did turn out to be an inner sea and not part of an all-encompassing ocean (although I don't think Tectonics-based script generates all-encompassing ocean)

[yuris125]

While I have workers in the area, I think I will take a quick detour to Mysticism and try to build Stonehenge in Ishgard

3 reasons

1. Culture. The circled tile is equidistant from Ishgard and Filthy Radicals; as it stands, Thoth is due to claim it when Filthy Radicals gets to 100 culture, but controlling it is will be key for any kind of aggression, so I need to contest it




2. Culture. I need 3rd ring in Ishgard to connect the furs. At the moment it gets just 1cpt from barracks, and since it has no commerce-producing tiles, I don't think it needs a library. Without a strong source of culture, getting those furs will take forever, and Henge is probably one of the easiest strong sources to get at this point

3. Military plans, but also culture. Thoth is settling his cities in optimal positions when Cre is taken into account. I don't really need free monument for my cities, but assuming I take some of his, they will need the free culture to get started. See how Filthy Radicals is relying on fish in the 2nd ring, same with his 4th city

Doing it without stone feels wasteful, but given that we're already on T66, I'm sure others are looking at it, and if I wait until stone is connected, I will almost certainly lose it. 3 chops + overflow from settler whip will get me there even without stone

[yuris125]

Thoth is up to 5 cities. Because why not