[PB73 SPOILERS] scooter's Oracle

[scooter]

Two more things. First, Tarkeel pointed out it's Big & Small and we're not all on the same land mass. That has implications, of course. First, there's a few ways that could shake out as B&S in reality generates a ton of different variations. 3-2 is a totally plausible layout, as is 2-2-1 and 3-1-1. 4-1 would be a very normal one too, but it feels unlikely to be chosen as it's the most awkward balance choice. The good news is it means I might not even be accessible to Luddite's Artillery. The bad news is I'll have no idea whether that's the case until I actually meet neighbor(s). Second, Luddite's pick does make Steam Power slightly dicey as it doesn't result in the turbo start CS does, and it requires picking the Dutch which rules out stuff like Praets or Vultures to cope with Artillery. Pretty much it means betting it all on Horse Archers being enough.


Anyway, I have a little time, so I'll run through the starts specifically.





Start 1 is insane. I won't devote too much time to this because it feels impossible for this to get passed over 2 more times. But it's possible (likely?) other players have a different meta read here. The main thing I'll point out here is you can play this however you'd like. Both economic techs I like (CS and Steam Power) are obviously insane here. You could combo it with a strong leader and burst out to a lead. Or you could take a military tech and use this strong capital to help power out units. I think the latter point is scary, because whoever picks this will almost certainly have one available to them. Also of course Biology is an option here too, although I wonder if you hit diminishing returns on food at that point. You'd be forced to cram your first couple cities in tight to share all this food.






A real step back, but this is still a nutty city. It's enough of a gap that I feel like there's a chance this falls to me. Obviously a Dike here would be really something, but this is an all-around enough start that like Start 1, you can go basically every direction with it. It would be difficult to turn this down at pick 4, but I don't know if it's necessarily a no-brainer because this being up at 4 means Start 3 would be up at 7 regardless of what Yuris does.






The "oh please let me build a Dike here" reaction still stands. I think regardless of what tech you choose, with stone access this is the spot to build Moai in the capital assuming you can squeeze it in before some Artillery come wreck you. I think you also take FIN here for sure.






This one's tricky. You can move 2N for 2h plant, but you give up a fair bit to do it. If you're picking a tech that wants a T0 revolt though, moving doesn't really hurt much. Moving also seemingly risks losing the Fish entirely depending on what's across the water. SIP has its own drawbacks such as invalidating a ton of coastal city plants on a map where coastal access looks like it will matter greatly. Also you cannot get an Expansive 1h from SIP and worker-first. That said, there's still a bunch of good tiles here, so long-term you can make a very strong city here. As of right now if we end up with the spot it'll be because I took Civil Service first, and a Bureaucap here would not be the worst thing here. It would underwhelm me slightly given what else is out there though.





Do not want. I mean, there's really good tiles here, don't get me wrong. This would be fantastic in some of the other games. In this one though, it's difficult to see what's going for it relative to the others. It's just going to be slow, and it doesn't synergize with any of the power techs. I'm hopeful Luddite ends up with this to offset his Artillery.


(One final note, some cold tiles suggest Starts 1 and 5 are nowhere near each other.)

[Qgqqqqq]

I think the starts are pretty crazy. I really don't think Biology is worth it based on the starts. I think Steam Power / Dikes would be quite strong. I suggest we pick the start first and then go for the tech.

[Cyneheard]

Start #4 can definitely use the fish - there's clearly land 1SE of the fish.

[scooter]

Start #4 can definitely use the fish - there's clearly land 1SE of the fish.

Yeah, it just sort of looked like a peak to me. But I agree it should be fine eventually.

I think the starts are pretty crazy. I really don't think Biology is worth it based on the starts. I think Steam Power / Dikes would be quite strong. I suggest we pick the start first and then go for the tech.

This is my lean. Especially if Cairo takes Start 2, then I think I take 3 and am fine with both CS or SP on that start in particular. If he takes something else and leaves up Start 2 it gets a bit more complicated.

[scooter]

So, I made a sandbox with this start last night and fooled around with a few techs. On one hand, it was eye opening how fast I could get out a Musketeer without too much of a sweat. On the other hand, with Bureacracy this start got to 4 cities and 3-4 workers by T40 while playing very casually - totally unoptimized. The tech pace in particular is ludicrous. Sandbox here in case either of you want to mess with it: https://www.dropbox.com/s/pfrk39kwhdyirt...BSave?dl=1


Steam Power was pretty good too - good enough to be pickable. Slower than Civil Service for sure, but good enough that the long-term upside is probably worthwhile. There was one problem though - missing out on Bureau's turbo tech pace was noticeable and painful. The reason this matters is you do sort of have to rush to Horseback Riding. That's actually totally doable with Bureacracy, but it's much harder with Steam Power. This is especially noteworthy given that Steam Power blocks you from taking Sumeria or Rome, so horchers are sort of the only game in town. The net effect is I think Steam Power with this start might even be the best tech, but it's incredibly dangerous as the early power is limited. A lot will hinge on strategic resource locations. (There's also the tiny risk someone drafts the Dutch in a denial play which would be incredibly irritating.)


It made me wonder whether Gunpowder should be reconsidered, so I thought about it. I'm a touch less worried about SAM/Artillery because the 10T of travel time as they walk the roughly 9-12 tiles to your capital plus the extra time to build one (let alone 2) buys a lot of time. If you can halve the travel time with Musketeers, hoo boy it could get dicey fast, plus you can start getting them out really quickly. I had one out by T30 without it really interrupting normal expansion - faster is definitely possible. A bunch of food heavy starts means it's really not that hard to get them into double whips and recover. In general though I'm really afraid that some of these military techs are even riskier than Steam Power. What if I bet it all on Gunpowder and Luddite's Artillery is my only accessible neighbor, and he has one out by the time I arrive? Then I've bet the farm with no payoff while I watch whoever did take Civil Service or whatever zoom off into the lead. Do I risk dying a slow death with a tech that gets me no payoff versus dying a quick death because someone rushed me perfectly? Seems like a pretty easy choice.

[scooter]

Here’s a different question for you guys. I’m asking this for the hypothetical where Cairo does not pick a start next which leaves us with the option to take Start 2 OR know that worst-case Start 3 would be there at pick 7. So he may grab Start 2 at any time and totally invalidate this whole question.

The question: is Start 2 really that much better than Start 3?










In the early turns there seems like very little difference. They’re both riverside PH plants with first ring lake fish (6/0/2 or 6/0/3 pre-Lighthouse). Double forested Deer is straight up better than wet wheat + dry corn, although obviously CS could chain irrigate the corn. They both have the same Stone and Ivory tiles. In the first 50-60 turns it’s not clear to me that Start 2 is actually any better than Start 3. It may be longer than that, because it has far more lighthouse-able lakes, which eventually lose out to cottages, but not for awhile. Start 2 does have 4 riverside cottage tiles to Start 3’s 1, and that’s the big difference between them, and I guess it looks like cities 3-5 might be better by looking at surrounding land. In general I also think capital Moai is going to be really powerful for 3 regardless of whether it’s doubled by a Dike or it’s going through the Bureaucracy bonus, which is something Start 2 doesn’t really have as much.


I guess what I’m getting at here is trying to gauge if you all feel like Start 2 really is at a really big premium over Start 3 should it be there at 4, or if it’s worth considering other options given that there would be at most one start chosen between picks 4 and 7. Do you guys feel the gap between them is small, or am I understating it? It sort of feels like they’re about the same over the first 100 turns, and it’s only in the mid game where Start 2 pulls ahead. And even then, I wonder if the gap is small.

[Cyneheard]

I think it’s worth floating the start to Pick 7 if we can choose between these two. Wet corn/gold (on a 1f tile!) second city vs dry rice/fog food/sharing food tiles and a 2f gems means it’s even closer, as Start 3’s second city seems stronger than Start 2.

[Qgqqqqq]

I agree, there's not as much between them. I think we definitely want start in the first two, but could be swayed to second.

Heres a crazy idea though: what do you think about picking leader/start in the first two? Or civ/start?

Logic is to ask how likely is it, really that others are thinking steam power / Dutch? Perhaps they are - but is anyone going to go steam power without the Dutch? I don't think so - workrate bonus is okay but not amazing. Whereas Dutch isn't a bad civ on a water heavy map. So civ should beat tech (if we decide on SP not CS). But is civ such a big advantage, versus the difference between the number one leader (Pacal) and the number five? And is the fourth remaining tech so much worse than the first?

I'm probably smoking something here. But I don't think Steam Power is that likely to disappear. Dutch I find slightly risky. But Pacal definitely will be gone in the first 2ish leader picks. Techs remaining are perhaps CS/SP > Bio/Communism/Democracy. Is 3rd/4th there such a big difference? Would it change the leader we want (perhaps - Bio/Comm/Dem might want someone faster out the gate).


A random note. I think the setup will be 3-2. A single continent isn't the B&S way, but leaving someone stranded means someone could get screwed if they go for a military tech, so I doubt the map has been designed like that.

[scooter]

I think it’s worth floating the start to Pick 7 if we can choose between these two. Wet corn/gold (on a 1f tile!) second city vs dry rice/fog food/sharing food tiles and a 2f gems means it’s even closer, as Start 3’s second city seems stronger than Start 2.

Yeah ok, glad to know I'm not crazy for thinking they're really close.

Heres a crazy idea though: what do you think about picking leader/start in the first two? Or civ/start?

Logic is to ask how likely is it, really that others are thinking steam power / Dutch? Perhaps they are - but is anyone going to go steam power without the Dutch? I don't think so - workrate bonus is okay but not amazing. Whereas Dutch isn't a bad civ on a water heavy map. So civ should beat tech (if we decide on SP not CS). But is civ such a big advantage, versus the difference between the number one leader (Pacal) and the number five? And is the fourth remaining tech so much worse than the first?

I'm probably smoking something here. But I don't think Steam Power is that likely to disappear. Dutch I find slightly risky. But Pacal definitely will be gone in the first 2ish leader picks. Techs remaining are perhaps CS/SP > Bio/Communism/Democracy. Is 3rd/4th there such a big difference? Would it change the leader we want (perhaps - Bio/Comm/Dem might want someone faster out the gate).

I'm glad you brought this up, as it's been something I started thinking about. I especially agree Steam Power is not super likely to be a prized tech. More importantly, I think only Start 3 can really use it to an extreme, and even then only when paired with the Dutch. So if Start 2 falls, and I grab Start 3 with pick 4, and then Yuris grabs Civil Service, there's very little reason to pick SP at 7 as I'd be shocked if anyone picked it at any point. I'm not super sure about picking Civ at 7. It sort of feels like Civ choice either needs to be for-sure synergistic with other choices. However, leader is sort of intriguing. For example, if Cairo takes Civil Service, then Pacal at 4 and Start 3 at 7 is not crazy. Steam Power would surely be around later, and Dutch probably would too as I expect the only civs to be snapped up early are Inca/India. Start 3 + Pacal + Dutch + Steam Power (in that order) would be great.

So, I don't think you're crazy. I'm just not quite sure if that is actually better than just something like Civil Service + Start 3 + Vikings + Darius in that order or something similar.

If it came down to one of those two paths, got a lean? I think those two sets of picks are both pretty realistic.

[Qgqqqqq]

I think I'm biased because I find CS a tad boring So that leabs me towards Pacal. One thing I'd say is Darius might not last to the end in this one - how late are we in the final two rounds?