[PB73 SPOILERS] scooter's Oracle

[Zed-F]

So the sun of these exchanges was 4 zerks, 1 elephant, and 1 cat for 5 phracts and a chariot?

Free Zerk promotion with the GG - I was confused until realizing you mean free upgrade.

I think the GG+Morale trick works.  IIRC, you take the Morale promotion after landing, to get a movement point back.  I remember arguments about the trick somewhere along the line - don't know if there was ever any don't-do-that rule or agreement, or if any of the mods ever removed it somehow.

Don't forget that Scooter lost 3 more WE earlier (killing 1 Phract) plus a spear and a Zerk lost on the counter-attack to little effect, to set up this fight. That makes it more like 5 Zerks, 4 WEs, 1 cat and a spear for 6 Phracts and a chariot. So the hammer trade hasn't been in our favour overall, but as Scooter said we can reinforce more easily.

Maybe we can threaten to boat his capital and force him to guard it so we can cut his iron? If we did cut his iron, could he get it from someone else? Agreed that we need a bit of time to heal, so we'd have to be careful about the timing of such an attack. If we have a morale Zerk available, just maybe we can snipe his capital if he's loose with it... probably not but worth keeping options open.

[scooter]

Yeah I've done it in the past, it had just been awhile and I was trying to remember the exact mechanics/order. The steps as I remember go like this:

1) Merge GG with unit. Upgrade if you want, promo if you want, but do NOT take Morale and DO leave at least one promo left.

2) Load unit onto boat

<at least 1T passses>

3) Drop unit onto desired tile

4) Promote to Morale, and you can now move again

So the sun of these exchanges was 4 zerks, 1 elephant, and 1 cat for 5 phracts and a chariot?

Free Zerk promotion with the GG - I was confused until realizing you mean free upgrade.

I think the GG+Morale trick works.  IIRC, you take the Morale promotion after landing, to get a movement point back.  I remember arguments about the trick somewhere along the line - don't know if there was ever any don't-do-that rule or agreement, or if any of the mods ever removed it somehow.

Don't forget that Scooter lost 3 more WE earlier (killing 1 Phract) plus a spear and a Zerk lost on the counter-attack to little effect, to set up this fight. That makes it more like 5 Zerks, 4 WEs, 1 cat and a spear for 6 Phracts and a chariot. So the hammer trade hasn't been in our favour overall, but as Scooter said we can reinforce more easily.

Yeah even with a good half turn, this was a rough hammer exchange overall. That is going to continue, which is why I feel some urgency to press the advantage right now, even though I don't really have any healthy units with which to press. So it's tricky.

Maybe we can threaten to boat his capital and force him to guard it so we can cut his iron? If we did cut his iron, could he get it from someone else? Agreed that we need a bit of time to heal, so we'd have to be careful about the timing of such an attack. If we have a morale Zerk available, just maybe we can snipe his capital if he's loose with it... probably not but worth keeping options open.

So, the thing that's difficult about boating his capital in general is the geography sort of counters the Galleys.





Take this picture from awhile back. The "x-1" tile is the tile you'd have to be on to boat the capital the following turn. That means even "x-2" is fully visible to Yuris. So you can't really surprise him. However, Morale does open up a couple options. The Iron is not visible in this pic, but you can see it in the suspiciously mined grassland tile. You could land on that from much further away, promote, and move again. However, you'd have to make a difficult choice. Do I take the sure thing and disconnect Iron, or do I take a shot at a capital that if defended by a fortified Axe (like it is now) would be far from a sure thing. You might say "the Iron of course!" and then watch Oxy or whoever just gift him Iron anyway. It's tough.


I think the endgame ultimately is getting boats around to the west side to also threaten horse at the same time and force him to pick, as even with Phracts he probably cannot defend it all at once. But if he leaves an opening for a pot-shot, obviously I'll take it. I'm also on a clock where in 6T Oxy can start interfering if he chooses, so I have to be ready for that.

[scooter]

Had to log back in because the only noteworthy picture of the turn didn't take. This turn was mostly a prep and heal turn. I gave my most wounded Zerk Medic1 in the interest of getting as much health as possible restored this turn and next. However, there was one thing I hadn't realized last turn.





The Phract couldn't easily escape. So I did something that I think is clever - cut off the retreat path. Now, don't get me wrong, he will still escape. But what this does is delay the healing process on this Phract by nearly 2 turns. PROBABLY. What I mean by probably is there's of course a chance he has a Phract in the fog that's going to smoke this Zerk and make me regret my choices. It's a gamble. However, with a Galley of mine advancing on his capital, I'm betting he's not considering coming at me directly. So if the Zerk makes it through unscathed, that's a nice bit of delaying this has done which could be crucial.


Great General merges and loads next turn. Big couple turns coming up, fingers crossed.

[Qgqqqqq]

How can he escape? Can't you catch him no matter where he moves?

[scooter]

How can he escape? Can't you catch him no matter where he moves?

You were of course correct.





Man that felt nice. Used my GG to sprinkle 20XP across 5 units, including my Hero of Stewy warrior who valiantly killed a Chariot and turned the tides. We'll see if he's up for more heroics shortly. Loaded up what I've got, and we'll see what happens. Next 1-3 turns are absolutely massive in importance. If they go well for me, I can blitz the rest of this war pretty quickly. If it doesn't go well, it's going to devolve into a slog quickly which would be awful news given the Oxy situation.





Shark fins anyone? I really wonder if Yuris has any Phracts left. I would bet he has at most 2, but 0 are visible right now. Also, serious :eyes-emoji: going on at that Luddite spike. I wish I had more insight on what's going on over there, but I've had too many other priorities to try to make contact with Cairo.

[Zed-F]

Good luck on this hopefully final assault to break Yuris’s back!

How are things looking back home? Any more reinforcements incoming or is everyone full of whip anger and off building other stuff while we wait for the anger to fade?

[scooter]

Big turn coming up.





I have near perfect vision for now. To get into this position, I first dropped the GG Zerk onto the Iron. Then I moved the southern Elephant forward onto the hill to get good vision. However, I still didn’t have eyes on any Phracts, despite Yuris doing a pair of double whips a couple turns back that I’ve been assuming were Phracts this whole time. So after thinking about it, I dropped a second Zerk on the grass hill as you can see, and that showed me 2 Phracts. One is C2, the other no promotions. I pillaged the Iron after this, which I assume will wipe out all 3 build queues as he could not have possibly expected this. He will be able to dry whip a unit in the capital, but that’s it. FWIW I had a 36% shot at the capital, and I briefly agonized over maybe taking the shot. However, it just felt like too many downsides and not enough upside. The problem is just that it may be difficult to actually burn it next turn, but preventing any more Phracts from being built was the top priority.


Next turn will hinge entirely on his response. He could use the Phracts to kill both Zerks. However, that would put both of them outside the city. As you can see, I have 4 Zerks loaded on the Galleys, all in range next turn. They’re not all fully healthy if you look closely, but they’re pretty close. The catch of course is that he does not know this, in fact he may suspect a bluff. In general my top priority is killing the Phracts as those are the only units causing me issues at the moment.


That said, he could also just stuff the Phracts into the capital and dry whip an axe or something, and at that point it’s highly unlikely I could take the city. At that point I’d have to make a strategic choice. Do I want to try to kill units, or do I want to run past the city with my boats and fork his west coast. Probably the latter, but it will depend on the specifics. (Also worth noting it’s possible he’s hiding a unit or two on that Galley in the capital, but that would be playing with so much fire that I’d be pretty surprised.)






I’m also working on a reinforcement angle. He does have an Axe/Spear combo coming through the jungle, but yeah, trying to open up a land passage too, plus I have this other Galley trailing behind. I’m going to have to be careful with my boats soon, as peace with Oxy expires in 3T.

How are things looking back home? Any more reinforcements incoming or is everyone full of whip anger and off building other stuff while we wait for the anger to fade?

Pumping units and living with the whip anger. It’s high, but manageable. My raw soldier count is back above where it was before my big battle with Yuris, so that’s good.

[Zed-F]

Looks like Compass - Optics next, seems like a plan. We’re likely to need those Caravels soon and Oxy can Kremlin whip those faster than us if he wants. Ours will be faster and more experienced though.

Any of Yuris’s cities you want to try to keep?

[scooter]

Big turn coming up.

Oh FFS he killed the Zerk without taking even a hit of damage. One hit and I'd have an OK shot at his capital, and two hits and my odds would probably be north of 50%. But he got a flawless win. To be fair this was less unlikely than some of the others ones, but still quite frustrating. So he was able to kill the Zerk on the Iron and still stuff the capital full. This is why I considered that 36% shot to burn the city yesterday. I checked and my odds of winning if I went in this turn would be around 20%.





Most annoyingly, he's just gonna rehook it next turn I think. However, he's going to have to be really careful doing that. It will require all 4 workers. Will he attempt to cover them? Surely not, but if not, is he ready to lose all 4 of his remaining workers and be unable to fix future pillages? It'll be a tough decision for him. It looks to me like he plans to move the axe/spear into the capital, freeing up a Phract to cover the workers I guess? It's not a totally insane plan, but there is a counter-punch available.





The problem is I trade so poorly into the Phracts that my only choices are 1) overwhelming numbers or 2) twist him into a pretzel because they cannot be everywhere at once. Also note the missionary. He spawned over in the islands when I founded Christianity, however using him as a scout seemed like the best use for him. If Yuris wants to kill him he can, but it'll mean putting a unit out of position, so we'll see what he decides.





The signs should make clear what my options are. At this spot they can still hit the capital, so he cannot leave. Once I go around the northern cape he can leave the capital, but the west coast cities are forkable. This annoying peninsula means I can't fork the capital. OR the other option is I can use my southern force by land and keep these units here next turn in order to "fork" in a different way. The latter would be ideal because burning his horse city would have the same effect as the Iron disconnect. It's all going to depend on what he does next turn ultimately. He's going to have to choose what to sacrifice. If I were him I think I'd just say goodbye to my workers and not cover them? That would keep his cities safe next turn. However, that means I just need a single pillage next time.


The worst news though is that because his capital is all the way up to size 6, it means it's highly likely he gets a Phract whip next turn, and thanks to sequential turns, I cannot stop it. I did consider dropping my whole army onto the Iron, but that didn't seem feasible really as he'd just thin them out over a turn or two and then hook it, and then I'd be out an army. All I can really do is keep applying pressure while reinforcing and hope for a mistake. He did make one a few turns ago that wiped his Phracts, but he's otherwise played everything pretty sharply (since the earlier razes), so mistakes have been tough to come by.





Optics next. I can get there really soon. Oxy apparently went for Aesthetics. Maybe he wants Zeus? That would be annoying. Anyway, I have 2 more turns until my peace with him expires. Mechanical question btw. On T86 I declared and offered peace. He accepted during his T86, which was last in the sequential turn order. Who will be able to declare first, and when? The game interface is indicating to me that I can declare on T96. If that's true for him also, it means I can declare first. However, I'm wondering if it says T95 for him? I'm not sure how it counts exactly in sequential. Anyone know this so I don't have to hotseat test? I sort of thought the way it works is whoever is first in the sequential turn order on the turn it expires can declare first 100% of the time, as I thought treaties expire on global turn roll rather than player turn complete. I could definitely be wrong though.


Anyway, I offered him diplo deals of 16g for 16g and 110g for 110g. That I think clearly communicates an offer of 16T NAP until T110. We'll see what he says back. If he agrees and warpeaces again, we're good. If not, I will have to at least consider offering Yuris peace and going after Oxy sooner. It wouldn't be ideal, but I have to consider the possibility of him stabbing me in the back while I deal with Yuris. Either way I'll be careful with my Galleys next turn as peace expires.

Looks like Compass - Optics next, seems like a plan. We’re likely to need those Caravels soon and Oxy can Kremlin whip those faster than us if he wants. Ours will be faster and more experienced though.

Any of Yuris’s cities you want to try to keep?

I'd be happy to keep them all, but realistically I cannot keep much of anything while he has Phracts that can just recapture.

[Zed-F]

Unfortunate about the Zerk, but hopefully our reinforcements and stretching of his position are too much for him to handle. Looks like it will probably take a few more turns, though.

If we're happy to wait for T110 to resume potential hostilities to resume with Oxy... any guesses as to when he'd want to fight with us? What might his plan be?