American Politics Discussion Thread

[darrelljs]

Polls have gone from Trump losing to Trump even to Trump ahead to Trump way ahead and still the Democrats hold on to this desiccated mummy    .

Darrell

[greenline]

I wonder how much of that shift could be due to voters disappointed on how the Biden Administration differed from it's original selling points. Biden + Harris were two figures associated with law enforcement and law enforcement bills, and a great deal of the election rhetoric was spent on how America was in chaos and Trump was not the man to right it. Yet all we have seen thus far is Biden's people knuckling to the most extreme and insane progressives, severe inflation becoming a fact of life, and most quantifiable things being worse than under Trump's administration. Is this really what "the adults in the room" have to offer?

[darrelljs]

I think that is a HUGE part of it.

Darrell

[superdeath]

Can i just request that Neither of them win the election?

[Mjmd]

I was listening to conservative radio today and he was doubting that poll. He thinks that yes among people who will respond to polls Trump might be looking close but that when the general election comes he won't have gained any votes from 2020. Will Biden have lost enough is probably a more apt question. He thinks (and me for that matter) agree though that if literally anyone else wins the primary (but specifically Hailey) Biden probably loses (he has been fine, but he really is not charismatic which is a big part of politics).

I am sad that radio host is retiring after 25 years. Reasonable republicans are getting scarce.

[Cyneheard]

I was listening to conservative radio today and he was doubting that poll. He thinks that yes among people who will respond to polls Trump might be looking close but that when the general election comes he won't have gained any votes from 2020. Will Biden have lost enough is probably a more apt question. He thinks (and me for that matter) agree though that if literally anyone else wins the primary (but specifically Hailey) Biden probably loses (he has been fine, but he really is not charismatic which is a big part of politics).

I am sad that radio host is retiring after 25 years. Reasonable republicans are getting scarce.

Haley only becomes the nominee if Trump dies before he names a VP. She'd hold that 5% of Kemp-Warnock voters, and depressed turnout from the more MAGA wing of the GOP won't make up for that, so she would be advantaged quite a bit.

And a lot can happen next year - between Trump's trials (and all the knock on effects that will have on the campaign - no money for a ground game being the big one), whatever's going to happen in the world over the next 12 months between Ukraine, Gaza, and whatever other crisis may show up between now and then (I'm not expecting Venezuela to actually invade Guyana, but that's certainly possible), and how the economy is doing in a year from now (give us the past six months for 12 more - low unemployment, inflation is under control over the past six months, booming GDP growth, and hopefully some Fed interest rate cuts).

[greenline]

Can i just request that Neither of them win the election?

I have seen theories that Newsom will be the one to run (his policies would not be any better). I think it is unlikely as Biden probably retains his general arrogance well into his senile years of wanting to be the most powerful man in the US and won't give up his position.

[Mjmd]

@Cynehead What do you think the chances are that Haley becomes his VP pick? I know they've had disagreements, are opposites on some key policies, but I don't have a sense how politically flexible Haley is.

I mean historically we really shouldn't vote for fascists even if the economy tanks with double digit unemployment and triple digit inflation. People have made that mistake before. But people don't learn from history very well, so the election probably will hinge mostly on economy / any major events as you say.

[Cyneheard]

@Cynehead What do you think the chances are that Haley becomes his VP pick? I know they've had disagreements, are opposites on some key policies, but I don't have a sense how politically flexible Haley is.

I mean historically we really shouldn't vote for fascists even if the economy tanks with double digit unemployment and triple digit inflation. People have made that mistake before. But people don't learn from history very well, so the election probably will hinge mostly on economy / any major events as you say.

The last thing Trump wants is Pence 2.0, who might find a spine when push comes to shove. He is going to select on loyalty over competence, and that isn't Haley.

Basically anybody who might've made sense in a Romney administration will not be an option for Trump. Look at the list proposed here: https://www.axios.com/2023/12/07/trump-l...ler-bannon

[greenline]

As I predicted, the state of Colorado has set the stage for the final transition of the US into an official banana republic (first initiated by Wilson and FDR) by casting away any votes with Trump on the ballot. I was a little surprised that it would be there and not a place like California first, but perhaps I shouldn't have been surprised to see it happen first in a swing state. The conservatives may try and mount challenges to that in court, but I'm not holding my breath. I would hope all the single middle aged women can finally stop crowing about this being necessary to save 'our democracy' - clearly, it has been saved enough now that the outcome will never be in jeopardy again.