We haven't had an official game with no deaths (yet), but it has come up several times in the alternate histories. So it's definitely in the realm of possibility, moreso than a Turn 200 finish or Time victory.
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Civ4 AI Survivor Season Eight
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Yep, never happened in a live game (though we did come close once or twice) and occurred about 4-5 times in the alternate histories. Based on the total number of games run, the odds seem to be about 1% that no one will die in a game which I'd equate to about the same probability of the 16 seed over 1 seed upset in the NCAA basketball tournament. If we run enough games, it will happen sooner or later on Livestream.
Thanks for clearing that up, Eauxps and Sullla. I was pretty sure I did not remember it happening in a game, but rarely in alternate histories makes sense. If there is some way to weight the random pick to give it an appropriate chance, that would work. But having "None" as likely as each of the AIs seems well out of line with any realistic probability.
Looking forward to the game.  My picks will almost certainly be disastrously wrong, as usual. 
Finally found time to watch game one. That was very entertaining. Maybe we could rate survivor games by how many "WHAT?!?!?!?!" Sullla says during the stream?
A statistic that would be interesting to have at some point -- does winrate correlate with minimum distance from opponent? Does land area available matter? Looking at game 2, gilgamesh seems to be a top contender with that backpocket land to this southwest. Other hand, justinian might snowball from an early conquest of a close neighbor. Always an interesting dynamic...
"I know that Kilpatrick is a hell of a damned fool, but I want just that sort of man to command my cavalry on this expedition."
- William Tecumseh Sherman
Some starting positions are more cramped than others. A lot depends on where the AIs send their second deity settlers. When two neighbors send them directly towards one another, particularly if one or both AIs are creative or get a holy city, the cultural border pressure can start ridiculously early. Having a safe (-ish) back area to settle is helpful, even if the quality of the safe land is low. Of course these AIs have no actual idea/programming for prioritizing settling to claim land; it is just an emergent property of looking for resource clusters, mostly.
The insanity is part of the fun of watching these games. 
random.org's predictions are in. This time I increased the bounds to 250-450 for finish date and 5-20 for wars; I also did not include "None" as a First to Die candidate by sheer forgetfulness!
The generator thinks that Justinian will win a Cultural victory on turn 317, with Gilgamesh in second, Bis as the first to die, and 15 total wars. random.org was literally the only "real" prediction that had Hammurabi winning Domination last week, so it might be on to something!
June 4th, 2024, 18:17
(This post was last modified: June 4th, 2024, 18:18 by haphazard1.)
Thanks again for doing the random.org picks this season, Eauxps.
 The randomizer certainly stomped my predictions last week. And a lot of other people's as well.Justinian by culture is certainly plausible. I went with Gilgamesh to win, so him being strong enough for second also seems reasonable. (Probably means Gilg will be first to die. ) It will be interesting to see how it goes. I can't do any worse than my zero point score for game 1  , so there is nowhere to go but up!
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