I started the turn by advancing a Privateer to scout. Then I checked odds vs Commodore's 6 unit capital garrison.
I'm risking my entire strike force if I attack. If I don't take the city I have to leave my galleons out where then can be hit by Commodore's Doom Fleet.
But I've got 9 hitters vs 2 longbows, a crossbow, two knights, and an axeman. Once the longbows are dead/heavilly damaged I'll get odds vs everything else and I've got two damaged Grennies who can do cleanup.
So I sank a blocking Galleon/Galley pair with a Frigate and a Privateer and then advanced one galleon....
And the Grennie died but redlined the Longbow. Next best odds were with a C1/CR3 grennie at 29%. Yech. But it was a 13.2 vs 13.8 fight with him getting a first strike so I figure my odds of getting at least a crippling level of damage were pretty good. So I advanced another galleon and sent in the noob. Who won.
After that I was getting decent but not amazing odds (70-80% range).
And it came down to this:
The full health and almost-full health Grennies are my C1/W3/Amphibious/Medic Supermedic and a W3/C1/Pinch/Amphibious with some damage. The Supermedic was getting 77% odds vs the knight so I sent him in.
Won it and cleaned up the remaining longbow and
Moved as many of my galleons as possible into the city and unloaded them.
I don't need to hold the city forever, just for a turn or so to heal and re-embark to hit the next target.
And I figured I should give Commodore something else to worry about so I advanced a few troops towards our border.
I need to check F8 to see how much land/pop I need for Domination. I suspect I'll need all of Commodore's current land which might just be doable. I'm close to twice his power and he's got close to 20 defenders between Welsh Cobb and his other island city garrisons. Plus 6-8 frigates in the outer sea and this impressive naval doomstack in the inner sea:
So I might just have enough to defeat him on land.
And finally, the log: