[PB79] Just one more Game

[greenline]

Thanks for the great update!

If you had to pick a location, where would you put Oxford University?

[xist10]

Nowhere ?

I have zero (okay, 1) libraries and I don't think I will have time to built universities.

I really should be building libraries in a few cities, but I'm not sure If I should can spare the production at the moment too.

If I have the spare production, I think Carthage for Oxford.
Wall Street in Hadrentum with the shrine.
I have no ideal city for the heroic epos, but I have a few cities in mind.
Hadrentum again, Thapsus or maybe Leptis ?
National Epic is more of an after thought.

[xist10]

Okay, privateers under construction.
Astro next, right?




Chemistry would probably take 4 turns, both 5 turns.
I can save a turn with astro surplus, but would be frigates, but 3 turns later.
But caravel->frigate would be possible.
I think the upgrades are an argument.




Just a quick look at the financial situation of coldrain.




And why is everyone investing their espionage in me ?
coldrain has invested 14 - probably everything. I can understand it here. I have spend more than the double amout.

The 18 from Gira might not be 100%, but it's still unpleasant that he's denying me access to research.

But Miro has fish/fish and spends 36 into me ?! Yes, again probably only 2/3 of the total output, but why ?




Troops have not changed much.

[xist10]

I'm took the risk option.
In turn 153 I'll switch to Astro, so that I'll only have one turn of chemistry left with the surplus in turn 154.

I'll also have a few caravels in the harbours to turn upgrade to frigates straight away.

Christianity was founded by Miro, by the way.




I also build prosperity in 2 cities to store surplus for ship production.
The Longbows will be finished with a medium surplus too.

In general, I have also marked how big the harbour cities of coldrain are.




Unfortunately, everyone puts their espionage into me.
I'll stop spying on coldrain now.




I start building the only possible canal between the North and South Seas.
This gives me more harbour cities than coldrain, otherwise I would be at a disadvantage.

[xist10]

And know the actual turn.




So coldrain is playing really dangerous, right ?
First the astro/privateers research (with GP use) - which I can see - and the refusal to give me any sign that coldrain favours peace and now the change out of Sklavery ?!!

I'm really tempted to load my knights onto the galleys next turn and knock on Skinners Room's door.

Miro in is unattractive, but what can you do ?

But first the important thing, the cost of astro research.




100% research before astro
Without the wealth build -406 at 1008 .


.

0% research before astro.
+635 without wealth.

A 0% round can therefore finance ~1.56 research rounds.

1.56/2.56 ~ 0.61 -> Effective research rate of 61% with 614 per round.




After Astro (with more wealth building) the costs remain at 405 , but the research drops to 951 .




Income drops to 576 .
This is enough for ~1.42 research hours.
1.42/2.42 ~ 0.59 -> Effective research rate drops by only 3%, but research per turn drops to 558 per turn.

558/614 ~ 0.9 -> The loss of the Colossus costs me 10% of my research output.




coldrain in the GZ has a fraction of my gold collection rate.
Okay, he currently has 5 merchants here, so I could expect a bit more specialist in other cities too, but still.

3 longbows are nothing I can easily overrun, but upgraded caravels to bombard and then land 10 knights?

[xist10]

Okay, this time, a few turns in one post.
T155:




Chemistry finished, 2 caravels already upgraded to frigates.

As I said, I'm thinking about knocking on Skinner's Roam in 3 turns with 10 knights.
I would load the 2 empty galleys next turn.




As I said, garrison is difficult, but this is possible.




Demo is not so good.
Miro and coldrain are in the GZ, so there is that.




Research goes to Alphabet first to have a tech overview.
I have research insight again, but I don't know how long it will last.
And since the others also have research insight (or alphabet), I don't see any great loss of information.

After that, I'll probably take Civil Service for the surplus, then onto the Taj Mahal.

You can slave several times and create a threatening backdrop (can be buildings) so that he switches back to slavery in his GZ and slaves everything. If you then take the city from him.... But that's dangerous.
Skinner is in the worst possible position for him, he can't allow you to have the city permanently, because you can attack his capital from there without warning.

You need a few fregs anyway to show Gira that he won't get any stupid ideas.

I really want to include this quote.

The thing with Skinner applies to me too - only 4 fields to Carthage. I actually have to attack Skinner with that argument.
I don't want to reproach coldrain for this, but his island cities are mostly founded on the side of the island facing me.
Okay, this is due to the food situation, but just as a comment.

I probably won't escalate this any further - maybe asking to buy Skinners Roam, but I don't see a real advantage, when I go to war here. I have no decisive advantage at the moment to capture the island cities without big losses and to hold against coldrains fleet and land army without problems.
________________________________________
T156:




I'll see if I can negotiate an espionage stop with Miro.
We both are under 400 and I don't want to lose research, but I have better targets to spent on.




coldrain continues to play attentively. Chemistry is something he needs against my frigates.




Chemistry in 3 could be tight for coldrain.




Here is my threat.
Unfortunately I can't land next turn.




And here's my offer for now.

War with coldrain is not really in the plan. Even if I fantasise about taking Skinner's Roam.

________________________
And we are in the ectual turn, T157.

coldrain wants the war, I can't judge his actions any other way.




Fish/Fish was not accepted.
The only possible conclusion: coldrain wants war. I understand a bit that coldrain planned to go to war when he had the Astro advantage. But at the moment, our armies are relative close, we are still in the castle time (which makes attacking not good) and I have an advantage on sea (till T159).
Why would coldrain refuse Fish/Fish ?!




Instead, the land units march northwards - okay, this is a follow up of the Fish/Fish refusal, but something I have to say.




Stopping this will be a bit tight without the knights on the ships.

There are also some ships that (once again) reposition themselves.




Attacking directly won't work.
I think I could just about break through, but the losses should be worth it.
But maybe declare this turn, sink the privateer and start bombarding the city ?

2 more turns of possible reinforcements is unpleasant, but I don't think coldrain has much in range and this should minimise my losses.


I don't really feel like waging war on the island world (ideally I'd conquer all the islands with transports and marines in a first strike).
But I don't think the war can be avoided ? At least coldrain is doing everything he can to convince me that he wants war.

I'll probably be able to increase research for grenadiers and ships of the line next turn.

[xist10]

Military science in 3 turns is actually already possible.




I'm escalating now.
I think this could be a game-changing mistake, but I don't want to give coldrain a first strike.
I still feel relatively good now. In 3 turns it could become more critical.

No peace offer. On the one hand, I forgot to do this - time was running out - and on the other hand, I don't know whether I trust coldrain to keep the peace for more than 10 turns.
And I'm more likely to face disadvantages if coldrain starts again in 10 turns.

If coldrain offers peace on his own initiative, then I will probably accept.




1 ship sunk, city wall bombed once - and city blocked.
Currently one less frigate shipyard as a result.

[greenline]

What does the entire front look like?

[xist10]

I will take screenshots tomorrow ?

There are 1 (2) points where coldrain could access my culture per land. coldrain needs to move over 2 unroaded hills in his culture to attack.
Oea - fortified with Castle, 2 longsbows and I will whip a musket next turn.
And coldrain could move towards Sarim Batin - Hill, River and Castle, but only 1 longbow and an axe right now. A musket will be finished next turn and I should have enough time to whip another musket.

Additional reinforcements should be possible ?

And northeast of Sarim Batin is my "main" stack. 6 knights and 5 catapults. I really need to rinforce that. I don't plan to attack by land, but right now, I can't really seek battle with coldrains main stack. When it comes to battle, I should be able to reinforce my main stack enough to win against the visible army.

On the sea, it's a lot more complicated.
I have at least castle and 2 longbows in all island cities.
My fleet is small (the 7 ships I have shown), but I will finish a few ships in the next 2 turns.

coldrain has fortified the 2 nearest island cities (2 longbows), but the rest ? 1 longbow at best.
coldrain has more combat ships, but mostly caravels and triremes. I sunk 50% of his "usable" fleet last turn.
Thanks to the espionage advantage, I should have the initiative right now. This could change, when coldrain has access to frigates.

I think, if coldrain starts a real shipbuilding campaign, I have to use my eastern ports and finish the canal near Hadrentum. Otherwise, coldrain has too much production.

[xist10]

I made a slight miscalculation. There are 4 defenders thanks to the whip.
I get 0% , but 9 knights and 1 kata will be close.




Here's some small nastiness.
This caravel won't be a frigate next turn.




I'll have to watch out for this fleet.
Depending on what coldrain does next turn, this could be 3 frigates ?




My first attempt at a force overview. I don't know if I'll do it again like this and not just write things down.

And the next inaccuracy. Here I had my forces a bit stronger in my mind.
Or rather, I didn't have the worker on the hill.
Oea is getting close, coldrain can strike in 2 turns with the knights, in 3 turns with all the units.
But after that I should have enough.




Probably won't be accepted, but should signal a willingness to negotiate.