[PB79] Just one more Game

[xist10]

Peace ?!
I send coldrain 3 diplo screens.
First Peace for 1g from coldrain, than peace for 1g from me (I thought first, this was accepted, but in retro perspective I think coldrain accepted the frist (and second)).
At last cease fire - I wanted to negotiate.

So I send the negotiation sceens this turn.
Fish/Fisch + 20g/20g. I want a longer NAP (and 20 not necessary a hard timer)
After that, Skinners Roam against Royal Valley. This should favour coldrain slightly. If he doesn't bite, I will add a bit gold in 4 turns.
- At least for the strategic position of Skinners Roam.


In the end, I'm happy that I could end this war.
coldrain was able to build his ships a bit faster than I hoped - more cities at the coast and bigger cities. I whipped a lot less.

With the conquered city, I came ahead on points, but I think, I lost the war on a strategic level.
My island cities are in even more danger, if I can't normalise the relationship with coldrain.
Add the loss of colossus and great lighthouse and my economic is not that good.

I think i will psot the pictures tomorrow.

[xist10]

Pictures.

Lets go back to turn 162.
Thanks to (hidden) reinforcements, I was able to destroy coldrains land army without much losses.
I even increased my espionage spending a bit, to get visibility on most (all) cities from coldrain.

Potential problems: coldrains has grenadiers. I can't kill them easily behind cities walls.
And coldrain has a bigger fleet.




coldrain can resist, they (german lurkers) told me.
The entire border to Miro is covered by warriors and archers.
5 archers and 6 melee warriors new.

I'm almost ready to let my army heal up and then just charge.
Okay, it's relative easy to whip up an army to defend that.




At sea on the other hand ?
5 privateers, 7 frigates there.
Plus 2 frigates in Shem and another one directly south.
3 more are currently sailing into the area.

I have the 10 frigates here and 3 frigates in Hippo.
I'm currently considering either offering a battle off Shem - I'll probably just about trade positively for 11 frigates - 721 sunk versus 693 lost.
Alternatively, I might move towards Borderzone, allowing only 7 frigates.

Borderzone-9-9 would have sunk the same amount, but only 303 losses - Borderzone-9 directly loses one more frigate.




Miro is probably going for liberalism with the education research.
I think Miro still lacks philosophy, I ‘only’ need paper, which is bit cheaper.
I would probably want to take the race.

To sum it up, I need ~4.7k if I exclude the 20% pre-tech bonus.




I currently have exactly 1k - so my statement regarding the ratio to coldrain last turn is outdated.
That should just about get me liberalism in 5 turns.
I lose about 100 due to the loss of the Great Lighthouse with Paper, but libraries are not included and I have ~100 surplus at the moment.

I'll have to scout out the old screenshots again to get an estimate of Miro's speed.




The Grid would actually be burnable from Gira with a command morale knight - and thus the 2 . 9 tiles, all with streets.
And I've had OG with Gira since this turn.
So an attack on Okrans Gulf is also possible in one turn.
_____________

Useless calculations.

Demo from turn 160.
Most likely full research from Miro for Divine Right.

There are the following values:
917 for me, 592 , 576 and 551 .




In fact, this does not fit any of the lines in the diagram.
For blue and green, I would have the 917 , but then the other values don't fit. For purple, the other values fit, but I also get over 1.1k .




But I have another demo. This one is from round 161.
I also think that Miro is still researching at 100%.
coldrain has turned up for military science.

The other values are 880 (coldrain?!), 692 and 555 .
Doesn't really fit here either

.
The look at the Demo data was not that useful. So I try to estimate it.




The 100% round cost Miro 380 from R160 to R161.




Miro currently makes 451 per round.
So 1.2 research turns per economy turns and a research rate of ~55%.
However, I am "only" at 57%.

Miro needed 3 tunrs for Divine Right (1794 ), the last round probably not at 100%.
So under 900 per round and over 600 . Let's say ~ 750 .
Philo costs 200 more than paper, but is possibly negated by 2nd pre-tech.

This would probably put Miro at 6 research turns - assuming no preliminary research like I had with Civil Service or Philosophy.

So Miro needs ~ 2280 to research all.
Another 4 economy turns, so 10 turns for Miro.

My 5 research turns cost me 2235 .
I could get by with only 3 economy turns, so I'd probably be 2 turns faster.

I think I'll invest in Liberalism and take steel ?

[xist10]

T164 had no posted pictures.
But a few important decisions and information.
I didn't offer a sea battle and retreated my fleets (this turn) outside of the (expected) visibility of coldrain.
If coldrain makes a mistake in positioning the fleet...

In other news, Miro got the 3rd active .
To the Music artist and the great engineer, Miro got a scientist.
This is not good.
Miro can built the Taj Mahal with the engineer and/or bulb his way with the scientist to Liberalism.

Thanks to the war, I move after Miro, so I can react relative good.
I need a decision in about 2 turns.
Miro is missing Civil Service, so the Nationalism pick is not that easy.

[xist10]

T165:




2 knights are missing - they are hidden on a ship.
I have the overview, I can use it.




20 frigates are also inconvenient.

As feared, coldrain builds up a bit faster here. - Better Pop and more whips.




Apart from that, I was actually planning to breed a Great Priest from Utica for a shrine.
However, I'm no longer so sure whether that still makes sense. The shrine is 30g without modificators ? Not bad, but I'm not sure If I will get a second golden age in this case.
I could get a second engineer here in a few turns - so using the engineer for the Taj Mahal wouldn't be out of the question. I still have a GE for the (first) corp.

Miro and Gira both have probably a GI in reserve.




My fleet is at the bottom of the picture near Hippo.
Plus 5 loaded galleys on their way to Skinners Roam.

The coastal defence is not so good at coldrain. If the frigates are caught out of position...

When in doubt, galleons are also a potential threat.




In terms of land defence, coldrain has this mobile force here.

[xist10]

T166 and the game got a bit more complicated:
I need to think about this turn.




6 knights have disappeared.




I reckon they're on the ships here. - 8 knights on the ship is nothing I really have to fear, but still nothing I can ignore.




The rest of the fleet is 2 spaces further back.




Miro has turned up and apparently used the GW for education ?
I would actually want to keep up ?
2 turns education, 1 turn philosophy and I think 2 turns lib (with surplus) for Miro, for me 1 turn paper and as expected 4 turns for lib + education ?




I would probably attack Okrams Guld here next turn if coldrain removes the 8 knights on the ships, so that no counterattack is possible by landing in the harbour.

______ Next log in.




Okay, the scientist is no longer in the city. I think Miro used the scientist.
And did someone wrote, how strong this city spot is ? 5 (!) (good) food resources. And my island cities have often a (plains hill) cow ?!
And 2 tiles east there is a spot with 4 resources possible.





This explains it - and coldrain has his 3rd GP for the 3rd .
An at Miro is neutral.

Off the top of my head, the time saved with the (towards liberalism) should be less than a education bulb, but I'm not sure.

Whereby 2 turns for education is bad.
~ 1.3 for Miro ? Nearly the double of my old estimate ?
I hope there is already something in education and this is ‘only’ 1.2k (or less).
Miro needs ~1.1k for Philosophy and 2k for Liberalism.
With a second pre-tech for Philosophy, the 1.3 could possibly be enough for ~0.7k overflow and thus Liberalism in 4 turns for Miro. I still hope for 5 turns, but...

And for me it will be tight. My 5 turns are very tightly calculated - I've actually switched from to because I'm not sure if I have enough for my 5 turns.
is becoming scarce.

I play after Miro, so I can decide based on Miros decisions.
I hope to get Astro, but otherwise I think I should be able to get Nationalism (or the merchant at economics).
And Paper opens options at sea. Galleys are too slow, Galleons on the other hand ?




The first time in ~100 turns that I am not first in GNP when I'm researching.




F1 before paper research.
~ 100 are lost in trade routes.




Gira also has Alphabet.
Slightly behind, I would say. Philosophy alone is as much as alphabet and aesthetic, gunpowder a bit more than banking.
And then I have chemistry and military science.




Given the situation with Miro, I'm trying to make peace with coldrain. - Further progress will be difficult too.
Diplo is difficult now, I don't think this will be accepted.


I don't think coldrain will accept this.
Basically idea of communication:
1. I am willing to make peace.
2. miro is a problem
3. don't accept this offer. - is probably unnecessary/too much. If coldrain accepts with the 2nd point, I would have already won something.




This comes afterwards.
Here the thoughts are much more difficult.
You can't really negotiate in a war. - Unfortunately, demands can only be made unilaterally.
Truce, on the other hand, allows you to really negotiate.

-> I want to negotiate/would be willing to negotiate.
-> Make a proposal.

The difficult thing here is the fact that truces can be broken at any time.
In case of doubt, I must refrain from taking advantage of this.

I don't think anything will really come of this.
Unfortunately, coldrain has an advantage at sea and enough on land. But I want to try.

What goals would I have if negotiations were to take place ?
Fixed: Fish/fish - possibly with a fixed amount of gold (20 turns+ ?).
Ideas:
Trade embargo against Miro (on both sides)
Surrender of my enclave in the south.
Exchange Skinners Roam for Royal Noise - city in front of Rome.

[xist10]

T167:



I got a counter offer.
Rejected.

As I said, the goal is the longer NAP.
I'm willing to give up Skinners Roam, but neither free nor without NAP (besides the peace).




And here's the interesting thing.
The knights are in Okrans Gulf




And a general ?




Okay, the idea of placing a few muskets in front of the city didn't pay off.
And thanks to the reinforcements (Gurilla2 musket, pike) I can't use my knights to conquer in the city.




But the are free and can be reached with a command morale knight. This needs 6 promotions and as such, 37 XP.
And with the deployment of both generals I would have enough XP on one knight. - But that would probably mean no more peace.
My fingers are still itching.

I didn't attacked (this turn).
Instead, like I wrote yesterday I send 3 diplo screens to coldrain.

[xist10]

T 168, nearly done.




Okay, this is a bit unexpected - but not unwelcome.

And unfortunately Miro hasn't moved yet, otherwise liberalism would be safe.
Let's see what the espionage says next turn. If it says philosophy, I should be quicker.
I'd probably take the risk with liberalism 2, but not with liberalism 1 (unlikely).

Then I'll probably secure the Taj Mahal with the Engineer - I should be faster.




My NAP with a minimum term.
Okay, this can also be interpreted as a fixed term. Let's see.




City swap - Skinners Roam is not really econimic useful for me, but Royal Valley is ?
Let's see if coldrain accepts. This should favour coldrain slightly, at least because Skinners Roam has a good strategic position.
In 4 turns I would also include some .

I think it's good that the war is over.
coldrain has rearmed a bit (at sea) faster than I would have liked. We're still about evenly matched, but I'll have to keep watching.

Hopefully I can normalise the relationship again.

With the city conquered, the war was a victory on points, but at the moment it's more of a strategic defeat for me. The danger to my coasts has become even greater, I think.




Conversion to civilian construction.




Just set current research times.
I logged Banking next, because I set a small trap for Miro.
I think Miro makes a double move and if Miro think, I'm keen on the merchant ?
Okay, this is mostly important if Miro changes his research to Philosophy and thinks, he can research Civil Service before researching liberalism.

[xist10]

Ticket for the liberalism lottery purchased. Let's see if there's a second participant.
And Miro actually researched Civil Service last turn.


So nationalism via liberalism is classic, but probably a bit too greedy (for Miro) in this context.
Still, if the surplus is big enough, it could be enough for liberalism in one turn for Miro.

Philosophy and Civil Service should both cost slightly less than the Chinese research output.




One research turn currently costs Miro only ~ 200 ?!
So ORG is probably saving a bit more than expected.
And the Forbidden Palace is in Antium.

[greenline]

I am surprised at ORG catching up as far as it seems to have done in the lategame. The map seemed pretty low maintenance from the tech rate up to this point.

[xist10]

I have 14g maintaince (and more) on my farther cities.
I think Cumae could cost even more for Miro ?

In the end, I think, Miro has better land (position and quality) and more infrastructure.
I'm building my libraries right now. I think, Miro should have build his ? And I work nearly 50% coast.
Add Sankore and Apo for a reli eco ?