American Politics Discussion Thread

[Cyneheard]

Yes, this poll could be an outlier, but:

- Trump needs that poll to be very wrong to have a chance to win. Like if Iowa is +1 for Trump, then Ohio, Texas and Florida are still in play, and Harris is winning at least the Blue Wall.
- Trump has not had a good week, to put it mildly. This was in the field Monday-Thursday, so post-Madison Square Garden.
- Pollsters may be encouraging pro-Trump or "keep it close" results in intentional or unintentional ways (Nate Cohn gets at this in his article below, and NYT Times/Siena is a rather important poll). Iowa doesn't have much of a polling basis to compare to, and Trump +4 was Selzer's earlier result in Iowa.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/02/upsho...ction.html

[Charr Babies]

I didn't want to add a goose in the skein while you guys were having a wild goose chase. 

Superdeath
Just to butt-in here, i wouldnt call India a geopolitical rival by really any metric. If anything, India and China are geopolitical rivals and are the next most volatile place for a war/conflict after the middle east.

Greenline
Vietnam is strongly anti-Chinese even without much courting by Western diplomats, but also lacks much offensive capability.

India and Vietnam are strategic shifters, consistently navigating a middle path in their foreign policies. They aim to maximize their national interests by maintaining good relationships with multiple countries and avoiding alignment with any single bloc. Given the slightest incentive, they'll eagerly align with whoever offers it, though they're more likely to bark than bite.

The West aims to transform these two into new manufacturing hubs, but they lack the technical expertise and supply chain infrastructure. They still rely on China. You might see fewer 'Made-in-China' labels, but you’re actually paying more for Chinese goods assembled in India or Vietnam, often with compromised quality (check made in India iPhone)

To Note: Putin visited NK to sign a pact with Kimmy, then Vietnam the next day, got a 21 guns salute. Then Vietnam visited China right away. 

There have always been minor skirmishes between China and Vietnam over the South China Sea. The issues are pretty much settled. Vietnam only occasionally raises its voice when pressured by the US. Then they're friends again as soon as the troublemaker leaves. The two countries announced a major upgrade in their Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership a few months ago.

There have always been minor skirmishes between China and India over the LAC. Unlike the BS western medias feed the americans; these only involved hand-to-hand combat, using fists, sticks, and stones. This is due to an agreement between the two countries to avoid the use of firearms in the disputed border areas to prevent escalation. Further more they have reached a significant agreement on border patrols along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Himalayas. This deal aims to ease tensions and prevent military stand-offs in the region. The agreement was announced just before Modi's visit to the BRICS summit in Russia.

India has blatantly ignored U.S. sanctions on Russia. Since the onset of the Ukraine war, India has emerged as one of the largest buyers of Russian oil, even reselling it and cashing in significantly. Laughing at us sanctions all the way to the bank. Additionally, India is profiting from supplying Russia with military supplies. The likelihood of India going to war with China is slim, especially not to appease the West, and particularly not if Russia backs China.

Bing_XI_LAO
Nothing of substance will occur between India and China.

This guy knows.

[darrelljs]

Will we get one last MJW update before the voting commences? I can't remember an election this exciting!

Darrell

[T-hawk]

Will we get one last MJW update before the voting commences? I can't remember an election this exciting!

Well, the stock market is tanking because they know it's swinging back toward the Democrats.

I called this a while ago - all Harris needed to do was nothing, just avoid talking about anything important while letting Trump say his dumb stuff and dig his own hole. She still has no policies other than endless economic handouts, but she's not going to need any. Americans will just vote themselves bread and circuses forever just like the falling Roman Empire.

[Mjmd]

As long as the next president just doesn't do much to rock the boat (which Trump sounds like he may want to), the US economy is probably going to be fine going forward and whomever wins can just take credit (assuming no major global events). I've said it before but the infrastructure act is going to benefit the next few presidents regardless of party. As far as what Kamala has over promised to do, a most likely Republican senate will probably make that difficult. A lot of the "moderate" R senators are also on there way out, which doesn't bode well for compromise bills even.

[greenline]

Will we get one last MJW update before the voting commences?  I can't remember an election this exciting!

Well, the stock market is tanking because they know it's swinging back toward the Democrats.

I called this a while ago - all Harris needed to do was nothing, just avoid talking about anything important while letting Trump say his dumb stuff and dig his own hole.  She still has no policies other than endless economic handouts, but she's not going to need any.  Americans will just vote themselves bread and circuses forever just like the falling Roman Empire.

If this will prove anything to future archeologists and philosophers, it is that the idea of a limited franchise for a learned class to hold back bread and circus politics is a bad one. Franchise loves nothing but to expand itself, and there is always a class of moneyed interests willing to help that expansion in return for control. The Ancient Greeks were right about democracy

[MJW (ya that one)]

I was going to use Ralston for Nevada but he kept moving the goalposts for a Trump win. So I stick with Tilt R. 

I do trust Selzer's polling enough to move IA to Likely R and flip WI to DEM. She rejected that 2020 IA DEM caucus poll because it showed Biden too low, but it didn't mess up her polling. 

I refuse to be Emo and put PA into Tilt D because that would make it 270-268. NE GOP would cost Trump the win if that were to happen and everything else were the same. Maine couldn't have responded by changing there rules because they have a Constitutional requirement to wait; NE does not. I don't know what I would put PA in if that wasn't the case.   

I don't know if MSG costed Trump the election because of Biden's comment and the fact it pulled away attention from abortion. I do know that both Harris and Trump handicap themselves a lot for not picking someone from PA. WI is equal to PA but it could be seen that RFK would get off ballot for PA but not WI. This pushes PA to the right and makes it the tipping point state. Both teams made too many mistakes to be considered a winner; this election is about who the biggest loser is. 

   

[MJW (ya that one)]

I'm too lazy to do House races. Of Senate and Governor only two races don't have someone with a clear edge--OH Senate and NH Governor. I put both in Tilt R.