Cairo is whipping a lot, Yuris is whipping a lot, SD is whipping a lot. Kind of nervous making in the short term even if we do have a big head start on high quality defenses - we also have a lot of borders to defend.
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[SPOILERS] scooter Expands the Empire Across the Sea
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Yeah I share your concerns over the whipping. However, the one who has actually increased his power the most is Superdeath. On one front though, I see mostly defenders.
 These are units that are trying to hold position, not attack.  Same deal here.  Or even here - take note of which direction his Galleons are facing. The western one sure looks like it's aimed at Yuris and not at myself. In fact, it's in position to boat Suo or land next to Matsuyama. You can see a second Galleon over by my Caravel that is also aimed north. Maybe it's nothing, but that western Galleon in particular - I can't think of why it would be there other than to be annoying to Yuris. Monitoring closely. Yuris however does look like he's about to lob a hail mary.  My "before" screenshot failed here. However, I noticed this - two Galleons lined up along with a bunch of Privateers ready to go. They are Nav promoted, so they could reach either of the "x" tiles. Darujhistan was empty, which means a GG trick would be enough to raze it. I filled it. Kartool was a little light. By a quick vodka test, if those Galleons are loaded with 6 Amphibious Samurai, he'd have a 40%-ish shot at taking it. I think they're likely to be a bit weaker than that. But I did shuffle over a Warrior in there just to have one more warm body and drop his odds even further. If he does indeed have 6 Amphibious Samurai AND gets amazing dice rolls, well golf claps for him. Seems very unlikely. Finally, this channel was wide open, so I stuffed 3 Frigates and a Galleon in the way that are all C1 promoted. You can also see 4 Frigates around the south edge of Nagoya ready to retaliate if he tries. If he does land some units next turn and has more coming after that, I can swap into Slavery and whip all these Grens, or I can buy some upgrades. Hissar was left a little light defensively, but you can see just off the corner a Galley. That is loading a Gren next turn to shift towards this front. I also adjusted my tech. Finishing Communism in 2T meant a turn of 100% tech and a turn of ~70% tech. Instead I inverted them in order to have more room for upgrades next turn if needed.  I also set up this on the other SD front. These units in the Galleon ideally would be more for my Cairo front. However, they can move all the way into any of these cities as needed with some Galleon chaining. So I think I'm safe over here.  Here's the power graph. Players are adding military to be sure, but Yuris' graph in particular is not going up nearly enough to account for all his whips. He is definitely whipping infrastructure, not units. I could probably figure it out if I spent more time, but I am not checking buildings every turn in every city  . Superdeath is definitely adding units. It's interesting that I haven't seen a single Gunpowder unit from him yet. Domestically, not much to report. However, I did setup Unta and Pale to build ~95% of a unit this turn. That way next turn they can finish them and have a nice chunk of overflow saved up for Kremlin and/or Taj. Taj has a bit more time, so I may be able to prep multiple there. Not a huge deal, just a way to prebuild by ~1 turn.
So it looks like Yuris is building up for something but not especially quickly. Agree that we need to keep an eye on this, since he's the one that matters most in a dog pile. We can probably continue to shift more units east as they get built in our core to make sure we're covered.
Noticed there wasn't much info on where Cairo's whips were going. Do we still need to get visibility over that way? If SD is positioned to take a poke at Yuris, should we try to make some kind of agreement with him about it? I don't think we can trust him further than we can throw him, mind you. Especially since we've already been hostile with him previously, even if we're comfortable with how we're positioned relative to him now.
November 23rd, 2024, 18:27
(This post was last modified: November 23rd, 2024, 18:27 by scooter.)
Likely won't be able to fully report on tonight's turn, but the quick version is Superdeath is positioning to take a swing at his former cities. I'm pretty sure I'm covered, but he's got 4-5 Galleons lined up to swipe. His power has continued to spike and is pretty real now. Yuris meanwhile is trying to have it both ways and looks like he's waiting for SD to go in first. He lined up an angle on Black Coral this turn that I covered. Cairo peace expires in 2T, so they may be waiting for him.
I finished Communism while building a ton of wealth in order to preserve cash for an upgrade or two if needed. Can fire next GA immediately next turn. I think I'm going to have to go into Slavery for at least 5T and be fine whipping if it comes to that. It seems like something approaching a dogpile is indeed coming, so being ready to lean on the whip may be necessary. Or at least have the option.
Seems like a good idea to go to Slavery/Vassalage/State Property/Free Religion now and re-evaluate in 5 turns whether we should go to Caste/Nationhood. This will slow down Kremlin a bit but as long as we aren't too hard on the whip now, we should still have plenty of fishing village whipping power when Kremlin comes online. Agreed we don't want to be without emergency options while there's a dog pile brewing.
Presumably the plan is still to go Nationalism next, then Physics+Steel in some order?
Here's the situation.
 Superdeath with a stack of 4 Galleons aimed directly at Bawaiting just in boating range. A 5th Galleon is also in range, and 2 more are 1T out.  Think I'm fine though. Stacked up a few more units in Bawaiting and have two more Grens in Hovenweep. It's possible I lose a city here at some point on sheer volume, but he really cannot advance much I don't think? At least, not on his own.  Ok, looks like I uploaded the wrong screenshot . What I intended to show is Nagoya is where his two primary 5-move Galleons are, and it's now suspiciously light on Samurai. The city most exposed from that would be Black Coral. I shuffled a couple units inside, but more importantly parked a couple Frigates right in front of it to block the direct route. I sent him a fish-for-fish for I don't really know what reason. Mostly just curious to see if he replies. Cairo peace expires soon and my border with him is shakier than I'd like. So yeah, Slavery next turn. If I can avoid heavy whipping I will, but if I have to do a heavy round, so be it. Everyone else is too. (November 23rd, 2024, 21:36)Zed-F Wrote: Presumably the plan is still to go Nationalism next, then Physics+Steel in some order? Yes, but short-term it's more like save a bunch of gold. I want to be able to truly mass-upgrade if needed. But yeah, I think Nationalism-Steel-Physics is probably the play. 
Hopefully if Cairo does join in, it’s to try to retake the cities we took from him. They have a fair amount of population to be whipped and are good candidates to be crumple zone; their main job is to take a hit for our ice island while it builds up the local navy.
Fired the 3-man GA. Note: Yuris can now tech Chemistry. I do not believe he has the means to bulb it, though. I should be able to get Steel first.
 Dogpile looks to be on to some degree, so Slavery it is. I did a fair bit of whipping after the revolt. Admittedly, quite a few of them were things like Granaries/Lighthouses/Walls in young cities that have nothing but coast to work, but also some units.  Tarkeel pointed out the workers for Yuris and their fort potential. I did notice last turn that they suspiciously appeared in a place they had no need to be, so I was planning to track them for similar reasons. They were moved this turn, so he's definitely forting that tile. It should take several turns. I can and probably should capture them before it's done. However, I moved around defenses assuming he'll have it completed next turn in case he ferries in a ton more workers next turn. Most painfully I whipped Ubaryd's Grenadier which was an expensive whip as it cost me 1c in a ton of cities. But I cannot risk losing that city.  I made a big decision with Superdeath. His Galleon stack aimed at Bawaiting was +1 this turn, and his buildup continues. He's clearly going to come after me. So I declared on him in an attempt to set terms.  This is maybe a bit unorthodox. After all, I think I can hold this city. And I definitely think I could prevent him from capturing more. But I am prodding a bit at how badly he actually wants this fight. It sort of appeared to me like he checked out for a bit, and then found renewed interest by whipping himself to death while all his potential war allies were half-hearted about it. If it were me, this would annoy me greatly. Does he really want this fight? This would let him regain a city without upsetting me and keeping his army alive for other options. Or he could try to take it from me - TBD on if he could - and see how he can keep his boats alive without Frigates.  But I killed this Caravel first. Why?  Got my Great General! It spawned on the Yuris front. Any strong feelings on how to use him? I'm pretty convinced XP sprinkle on this front is the way to go. There's simply no time for anything else. Here's how I see options. 1) Sprinkle across 4 5xp Grens for a nice group of C2 Drill1 Amphibious Grens and try to wreck Yuris with them. 2) Optimize for defender promos - some mix of units to next promotion threshold. Possible this is also 4 Grens, but not Amphibious 3) Optimize first for unit upgrade. This is something I like to do a lot. For example, there's a Warrior in Kartool. It's 0XP, but attaching the GG to it is the closest thing to producing one out of thin air at a time where 1 holds a lot of value. Of course, optimize for promotions second here - I'm not necessarily thinking 20XP on one unit. 4) Optimize for naval promotions. I'm thinking a lot about this. I have a lot of 2-3xp C1 Galleon/Frigates in the area that would benefit from a second promotion. Yuris is massing Privateers right now in hopes they can sort of stand up to Frigates. Adding a second promotion to my Frigates makes that a bad proposition for him, and adding a second promotion to my Galleons makes even them a bit stingier vs the Privateers. My heart says #1, my brain says #4. Of course, worth noting these are not all mutually exclusive. My gut right now is to warrior-attach, but do it on a stack of boats. For example, a Warrior on a Galleon with an additional 5 boats underneath would be 1xp shy of a promotion for all boats plus a free upgrade to a 1-promo Gren.  I squeezed this in with the settler that's been idle for awhile. I should have done it sooner. But especially with State Property there's just no reason not to do this.  I also tried to make decisions difficult for Superdeath. His Galleon stack is still on the signed tile, which is where you'd place them if planning an attack on Bawaiting. My Frigates are positioned in such a way that he'd be forced to drop the units off rather than attack Amphibiously, OR he'd have to power through them which would be insanely expensive. My hopes here are to demonstrate that any attack he makes is a one-way trip. If he moves forward, loaded Galleons get potentially sunk. In addition, I bluffed at his capital with an empty Galleon, and I bluffed at his other cities with a second Galleon just out of view here. I want to force him to defend his cities at the same time rather than committing everything to an attack. This is especially true as the risk is asymmetrical. I could lose all 3 of these cities and be fine, but his capital goes and he's toast. So we'll see if he is more interested in a negotiated peace.  Finally, pop quiz! This is mostly for if you are less experienced with naval MP. Look at the Grenadier in Kan. I have this Gren, 2 free Galleons (marked with "g" signs), and 6 cities I'm trying to cover with varying degrees of concern. This is an end-of-turn state. How many of the 6 cities could be covered by this Gren on my next turn using only the two marked Galleons? Answer and thought process in spoilers. I turned on tile lines to make it easier. |
