PB80 Lurker thread - Screw tolerance level over 9000!!

[scooter]

I had similar decisions in PB75 and I disagree with his strategy. Screw going for culture. Just go conquer your weak neighbor and get more ports that way. Even if you don't think you have the resources to conquer all of Yuris's territory, it should easily be possible once at railroads to attack either the north or south (which is area I would pick, but disposition of Yuris forces would matter) and permanently cripple Yuris and pick up another 4 ports (or more). Yuris's long stretched out empire is not defensible. Hell even without railroads he should be able to invade that situation is so bad.

It also seems obvious that every player KO is one less player able to join the dogpile. As it is, his power lead is a bit of a mirage because he needs to defend in more places than everyone else. In a hypothetical Krill/Thoth dogpile, he is still going to need to allocate units to defend his eastern flank thanks to the existence of Yuris. It seems best to just fix that now before the dogpile gets here.

[xist10]

Still, this changes Yuri from a potential enemy to a save enemy.
I think it would be better to attack Yuri but in the end, Commodore would have clearly a hostile sea border on all coasts.

[Mjmd]

For the record I think 99% this game does not end in a real victory condition. Once the former Yuris cities are fully spun up I think this game is over; eventually. Unless Commodore just decides to do for funsies / because he is more focused on that vs pushing.

[T-hawk]

Well, most don't. The exception is if there's a real race between culture or space or getting conquered.

Commodore thinks Thoth has the possibility get to a culture victory thanks to Creative Constructions before Commodore can get to any actual win condition. He could be right; we really have no idea what the timeline would be for either of them to do that or Commodore to win by space or conquest.

[Tarkeel]

Commodore should be able to run CreCon as well in the three CV cities; yes it's going to cost some and feed Thoth, but should still be worth it.

[scooter]

Can Thoth actually pull this one out?

[Qgqqqqq]

Almost certainly not? He's reliant on Krill fighting Commodore, but if he ever gets close to a victory Krill will turn.

[scooter]

Almost certainly not? He's reliant on Krill fighting Commodore, but if he ever gets close to a victory Krill will turn.

I mean, I think Commodore is still the clear favorite, yes. But Thoth is definitely ahead in tech now and would probably win a straight peaceful race to space. And Thoth is now saying he's up to #1 in military, and he merely has to turtle while Commodore has to pull off an overseas invasion. I assume Commodore's industrialized and massive production base will be enough, but it does seem like he maybe needs to invade rather than just defend? That at least opens the door. It's easy to make a crippling mistake while executing an overseas invasion at scale like that.

[Qgqqqqq]

Perhaps. I'd posted that before reading Thoth's most recent update. I think he would need to decapitate Krill to win given the exposure he has on land.

[naufragar]

Xist, Thoth estimated 35-40 turns for Commodore. You did the math for Thoth's Spaceship win (29 turns) and drew a comparison to a game in which Culture and Spaceship came on the same turn. The question about Thoth's timing and the comparison suggest to him that his estimate about Commodore is too slow. I think your comment gives him too much info.