American Politics Discussion Thread

[superdeath]

Fairly sure, Ukraine has been holding firm. Beating the ABSOLUTE shit out of Russia. Even took back some land. A ceasefire helps both, as Russia can recoup their horrendous losses and build their own equipment/train instead of importing it, and Ukraine can stock up, do whatever elections they may want (so long as they are supervised and not Russia-intimidated like other ones have been) and prepare for the next human wave. Each country just needs to outlast the other. Ukraine needs to last long enough for NATO and other nations to give them the equipment to not fall, and be a rallying point against the VERY clear Russian expansionism. Russia needs to outlast, to wear down the Ukraine population and probably hope for a revolt of some kind.

The USA could feasibly end the fighting or at least prevent Russia from doing anything more, by sending humanitarian aid/any Americans there. WW3 is not going to happen, and it very much wouldnt happen with nukes. Every country knows that doesnt end well for anyone. Now, the USA is in a better/interesting spot if it CAME to nukes due to a shitload of anti-missile defenses and being a long ways from others giving more time to respond. Some nukes obviously would still get thru, but not before every city in Russia (and china if they were involved) were obliterated, due to sheer tech difference.

Everyone has bias, its in our nature/upbringing/ect/ect. I will say im not particularly biased towards the USA just because i live here. Im not "patriotic" nor care for nationalism. Probably the closest to a neutral stance/middle ground stance on most things.

[Gavagai]

Yes, Putin's incentives are the biggest issue here. I maybe respond more about that later but for now just a quick comment on Russian media. They are mostly busy discussing which city we should nuke first: Kyiv, London or Washington. They are in full-on war propaganda mode and next to them Putin looks like a pacifist. Given the informational environment in which Russians live, it is quite amazing that only about 50 percent of the popultaion approve of the war and I believe it should be a big warning sign for Putin.

[Gavagai]

Fairly sure, Ukraine has been holding firm. Beating the ABSOLUTE shit out of Russia. Even took back some land. A ceasefire helps both, as Russia can recoup their horrendous losses and build their own equipment/train instead of importing it, and Ukraine can stock up, do whatever elections they may want (so long as they are supervised and not Russia-intimidated like other ones have been) and prepare for the next human wave. Each country just needs to outlast the other. Ukraine needs to last long enough for NATO and other nations to give them the equipment to not fall, and be a rallying point against the VERY clear Russian expansionism. Russia needs to outlast, to wear down the Ukraine population and probably hope for a revolt of some kind.

The USA could feasibly end the fighting or at least prevent Russia from doing anything more, by sending humanitarian aid/any Americans there. WW3 is not going to happen, and it very much wouldnt happen with nukes. Every country knows that doesnt end well for anyone. Now, the USA is in a better/interesting spot if it CAME to nukes due to a shitload of anti-missile defenses and being a long ways from others giving more time to respond. Some nukes obviously would still get thru, but not before every city in Russia (and china if they were involved) were obliterated, due to sheer tech difference.

Everyone has bias, its in our nature/upbringing/ect/ect. I will say im not particularly biased towards the USA just because i live here. Im not "patriotic" nor care for nationalism. Probably the closest to a neutral stance/middle ground stance on most things.

Ukrainian bottleneck is more and more manpower, not equipment. A lot of motivated fighters who did so well at the start of the war got killed and there are few people standing in line to replace them. They have lots of desertions and recruitment problem, both are very dangerous signs. This is the main reason long-term prospects for Ukraine are rather grim and they need to peace out.

[The Black Sword]

The way the war works is that there is always at least one side who would be better off not fighting and if both want to continue to fight, it means at least one of them is deeply delusional.

Is this not the current state? 

Russia wants peace if they can consolidate current borders and lift sanctions. Gaining any more land at the current time is really costly for them, and they will always have the option of coming back for more when they're ready.

Ukraine needs a lot more incentive because this logic favours Russia.

Of course if Trump really lifts significant sanctions on Russia without getting anything in return then their incentive for peace drops.

[Charr Babies]

People are strange
Strange behavior indeed, how Zelensky is groveling around for help like a two bit whore, while beating the absolute hell out of Russia.
Stranger yet, people actually believe that.

Putin must want more beating - What's not to like?


.

[darrelljs]

The way the war works is that there is always at least one side who would be better off not fighting and if both want to continue to fight, it means at least one of them is deeply delusional.

Russia wants peace if they can consolidate current borders and lift sanctions. Gaining any more land at the current time is really costly for them, and they will always have the option of coming back for more when they're ready.

I think that's why Zelensky is so intent on getting security guarantees as part of any cease fire, especially given Russia's history.  I wonder if it's possible for a cease fire to happen without security guarantees, followed by EU and UK putting boots on the ground to ensure it's enforced?

Darrell

[greenline]

If the EU and the UK are responsible for providing troops, I wonder how long they would stomach any losses. Patriotic soldiers willing to die are in short supply in the Euroverse.

[KingOfPain]

That being said. I was waiting for KoP to set up for donations. I am all for it.

Well, that's a swift kick to the King Of Procrastination to finally get things moving...

[darrelljs]

If the EU and the UK are responsible for providing troops, I wonder how long they would stomach any losses. Patriotic soldiers willing to die are in short supply in the Euroverse.

I suspect many former Warsaw Pact nations have soldiers willing.

Darrell

[greenline]

It would be putting a heavy burden on Poland and Finland to carry the weight. I can't imagine it would be useful in the short term, since they're expecting to use French and British logistics to get boots on the ground fast.