After running through the sim, the advantages of going warrio>warren is that I get out 1 warrior, 1 goblin and by t44 I'm 2 turns from first and second worker, meaning I could go Mining second to find copper. I could put some pressure on a neighbour.
The advantage to going worker>warren is that the warren finishes t44 with wheat+2fp farmed and the silks hooked, capital is size 6, and can reasonably go warrior>worker>settler or even warrior>settler. It's a better building position, but it means that Calendar is second tech (ok not that bad) and that I'm not going to be able to scout that well. I can get a combat 3 warrior next turn when I promote, and use him to scout westwards, but I'm risking it to the north with only a 1 move goblin.
The advantage to going worker>warren is that the warren finishes t44 with wheat+2fp farmed and the silks hooked, capital is size 6, and can reasonably go warrior>worker>settler or even warrior>settler. It's a better building position, but it means that Calendar is second tech (ok not that bad) and that I'm not going to be able to scout that well. I can get a combat 3 warrior next turn when I promote, and use him to scout westwards, but I'm risking it to the north with only a 1 move goblin.