T77.
Not sure when the next turn will be played, because we need Elkad to play, and then Gav. So we might not get another turn until the weekend or we might get it tonight.
I have been spending the past 2 days mulling over the option to not send the capital settler to grab the front city. I was thinking it could be a mistake, but on reflection I would rather not push too hard. T83 settle versus a T79 settle, former covered by axe (on moving to hill) with the archer joining the city on T83, latter covered by only a chariot until those same turns. No trade network in the latter either. But right now I think this game hinges on two outcomes: do we get teh front city, and do we get Mids. In the instance we get both, great, build up and out, get to knights, kill someone. If we miss Mids, that gives us enough gold to rush straight to Alphabet and enough left over to also get HBR quickly afterwards as of now-ish (given research builds): so if we miss Mids and the front city, we can go HBR and try to take it. If we get the front city and miss Mids, we don't need to be aggressive and should just try to hold what we can as we grab Currency, Calendar and IW, and HBR can fit into that as the mobile response. Rushing the front city would push me more towards having to hold land, but pushes us away from Alphabet because of the increase cost of holding the city for those few turns. It's not a reason not to, but something to be aware of. OTOH, this picture is the reason I wouldn't rush to settle without backup other than chariots:
We know that OH double whipped three times on T76, and two single whips on T77. We don't know what he whipped, but that spear has no fortification bonus. I believe that the spear was whipped on T76 and the overflow dumped into something, probably a library unless the micro has now changed to grab a granary to aid regrowth. This makes me feel a little bit better about the timings, OH has known for ages we have chariots so if he was planning to settle imminently, he must have had stuff in this area ready to push up. Unless he was always planning to double whip the emergency spear for cover, but he also knows we hooked the copper recently. None of this information really changes anything though: OH can still settle the plains hill T80, but couldn't get a spear there unless he had 4 workers in the fog. More likely he would use two workers to road there, but he has to move the spear forward to cover the workers in that scenario and keeping the chariot in that area will only slow him down.
I think OH has to move his spear forward to threaten the chariot if he wants to conceal his movements, and then my paranoia will increase but as there is nothing to do in that case I'll just sit and watch. If he doesn't then I'll start thinking we've got hte location unless those 4 workers suddenly materialize.
Barb warrior moved into the FoW. I considered moving the chopping worker under the chariot to road, so it could heal for 2 turns and then cover the north quicker, but that would cost 3 worker turns and saves me 1 tile. Ultimately, that 1 tile is the distance the chariot falls short moving to both cities 2 and 5 but I'm going to carry on tempting the RNG to throw barbs at us (also, the capital can finish a chariot eot78 to cover city 5 and attack anything that goes straight for the city that doesn't move over the copper, in that instance an archer can complete and make it into the city before the barb can attack). Any later than this and the chariot will be healed enough to cover and turns enough to reach. Or Kalamazoo just builds an archer or an axe as needed. So even now, we're covered from barb attacks.
The entire north east is a dead end with furs the only happy resources. That leaves us with a quandry: do we send the workboat west, or build a new workboat in city 7 and send that west, sending this one south and then south east? I reckon just send this one SE, because city 7 (JJ) will have overflow and might as well grow on the workboat and send that one west. It has little else to grow on other than an archer, but it can dump the overflow into the workboat, grow on the archer (when it makes 1 or 2 hpt and wouldn't get the bonus, then throw out the workboat at size 3 or 4 when it can pick up a mine and furs. We'll get more exploring done this way.
City 8 cost 4gpt above and beyond the 2 commerce per turn it brings in. Next turn we belatedly pick up the last scientist and can work a few more cottages at the capital, but it will take another 10 turns to be able to give up the horse permanently to city 8. So by T88 the capital can work 5 cottages itself, City 2 works one cottage, city 4 works one cottage and we can put city 8 onto a plains cottage. Looking at GS eot92 from city 4. Mids is at 127/500. And we need IW, Calendar, 2 island cities, two western coastal cities and two southern cities for jungle gems and sugar.
We are going to be bankrupt very soon. Pray for Mids.
Not sure when the next turn will be played, because we need Elkad to play, and then Gav. So we might not get another turn until the weekend or we might get it tonight.
I have been spending the past 2 days mulling over the option to not send the capital settler to grab the front city. I was thinking it could be a mistake, but on reflection I would rather not push too hard. T83 settle versus a T79 settle, former covered by axe (on moving to hill) with the archer joining the city on T83, latter covered by only a chariot until those same turns. No trade network in the latter either. But right now I think this game hinges on two outcomes: do we get teh front city, and do we get Mids. In the instance we get both, great, build up and out, get to knights, kill someone. If we miss Mids, that gives us enough gold to rush straight to Alphabet and enough left over to also get HBR quickly afterwards as of now-ish (given research builds): so if we miss Mids and the front city, we can go HBR and try to take it. If we get the front city and miss Mids, we don't need to be aggressive and should just try to hold what we can as we grab Currency, Calendar and IW, and HBR can fit into that as the mobile response. Rushing the front city would push me more towards having to hold land, but pushes us away from Alphabet because of the increase cost of holding the city for those few turns. It's not a reason not to, but something to be aware of. OTOH, this picture is the reason I wouldn't rush to settle without backup other than chariots:
We know that OH double whipped three times on T76, and two single whips on T77. We don't know what he whipped, but that spear has no fortification bonus. I believe that the spear was whipped on T76 and the overflow dumped into something, probably a library unless the micro has now changed to grab a granary to aid regrowth. This makes me feel a little bit better about the timings, OH has known for ages we have chariots so if he was planning to settle imminently, he must have had stuff in this area ready to push up. Unless he was always planning to double whip the emergency spear for cover, but he also knows we hooked the copper recently. None of this information really changes anything though: OH can still settle the plains hill T80, but couldn't get a spear there unless he had 4 workers in the fog. More likely he would use two workers to road there, but he has to move the spear forward to cover the workers in that scenario and keeping the chariot in that area will only slow him down.
I think OH has to move his spear forward to threaten the chariot if he wants to conceal his movements, and then my paranoia will increase but as there is nothing to do in that case I'll just sit and watch. If he doesn't then I'll start thinking we've got hte location unless those 4 workers suddenly materialize.
Barb warrior moved into the FoW. I considered moving the chopping worker under the chariot to road, so it could heal for 2 turns and then cover the north quicker, but that would cost 3 worker turns and saves me 1 tile. Ultimately, that 1 tile is the distance the chariot falls short moving to both cities 2 and 5 but I'm going to carry on tempting the RNG to throw barbs at us (also, the capital can finish a chariot eot78 to cover city 5 and attack anything that goes straight for the city that doesn't move over the copper, in that instance an archer can complete and make it into the city before the barb can attack). Any later than this and the chariot will be healed enough to cover and turns enough to reach. Or Kalamazoo just builds an archer or an axe as needed. So even now, we're covered from barb attacks.
The entire north east is a dead end with furs the only happy resources. That leaves us with a quandry: do we send the workboat west, or build a new workboat in city 7 and send that west, sending this one south and then south east? I reckon just send this one SE, because city 7 (JJ) will have overflow and might as well grow on the workboat and send that one west. It has little else to grow on other than an archer, but it can dump the overflow into the workboat, grow on the archer (when it makes 1 or 2 hpt and wouldn't get the bonus, then throw out the workboat at size 3 or 4 when it can pick up a mine and furs. We'll get more exploring done this way.
City 8 cost 4gpt above and beyond the 2 commerce per turn it brings in. Next turn we belatedly pick up the last scientist and can work a few more cottages at the capital, but it will take another 10 turns to be able to give up the horse permanently to city 8. So by T88 the capital can work 5 cottages itself, City 2 works one cottage, city 4 works one cottage and we can put city 8 onto a plains cottage. Looking at GS eot92 from city 4. Mids is at 127/500. And we need IW, Calendar, 2 island cities, two western coastal cities and two southern cities for jungle gems and sugar.
We are going to be bankrupt very soon. Pray for Mids.