I think that it's a bit simpler to understand over the past 2 turns.
superdeath declared on OH. OH will win that war, or at least is going to take stuff from superdeath, the question being how much and how long it takes.
OH would then be able to move from his south west to his west and just capture everything as he goes through DZ and into Lewwyn, there is nothing stopping him except me, OT4E fighting with him for some of the gains, or Cairo smashing into his south eastern flank.
Taking out superdeaths starting island and then moving north with CKN and knights to take out DZ and Lewwyn is a dangerous play to me, but it's obvious, and that's what I'm going to have to prepare to deal with. Lewwyn has a good chunk of DZ's starting island, and if OH has that, then there is only Lewwyns starting island that is basically grassland, plains and about 4, four food or great tiles total. So I'm expecting to have to intervene at that point.
I believe OT4E will react to superdeaths partial demise and seal a deal for a chunk of island holdings only (unless his tech position is better than I can see and he can get to Gunpowder in this GA, which I seriously doubt and even then he needs Nationalism, no way he can get both in this time frame). Then OT4E can pressure north into superjm, but I don't think he can do that until after his GA is finished: his power isn't rising as if he is stacking up and I can't find any offensive units in his territory.
Meanwhile Gav is continuing to increase in power, but he is stuck between Cairo and OT4E, and until I get Cairos graphs in the next 2-3 turns, I don't know if Gav feels Cairo is a potential target. But Gav attacking Cairo doesn't fit with OH being #1 in power and attacking a weak superdeath (I don't have his graphs, but he was really backward 20 turns ago, can't have made any real headway), because Gav would be making the first move and would then give OH an opportunity to use bulbed galleons and CKN to start clearing up Cairo if Gav wiped out Cairos army, once Superdeath is evicted from his cities. The only other route Gav has is straight through OT4E who is in an MoM GA, playing Toku of France and I think has a tech lead over Gav.
Meanwhile superjm has awful power (worse than mine) and overseas expansion prospects only.
tl;dr OH has the initiative on at this point, if his war with superdeath goes really well and he starts to roll up against DZ and Lewwyn I'm going to be forced to intervene, but everyone else seems too weak and with too poor MFG to actually do anything.
superdeath declared on OH. OH will win that war, or at least is going to take stuff from superdeath, the question being how much and how long it takes.
OH would then be able to move from his south west to his west and just capture everything as he goes through DZ and into Lewwyn, there is nothing stopping him except me, OT4E fighting with him for some of the gains, or Cairo smashing into his south eastern flank.
Taking out superdeaths starting island and then moving north with CKN and knights to take out DZ and Lewwyn is a dangerous play to me, but it's obvious, and that's what I'm going to have to prepare to deal with. Lewwyn has a good chunk of DZ's starting island, and if OH has that, then there is only Lewwyns starting island that is basically grassland, plains and about 4, four food or great tiles total. So I'm expecting to have to intervene at that point.
I believe OT4E will react to superdeaths partial demise and seal a deal for a chunk of island holdings only (unless his tech position is better than I can see and he can get to Gunpowder in this GA, which I seriously doubt and even then he needs Nationalism, no way he can get both in this time frame). Then OT4E can pressure north into superjm, but I don't think he can do that until after his GA is finished: his power isn't rising as if he is stacking up and I can't find any offensive units in his territory.
Meanwhile Gav is continuing to increase in power, but he is stuck between Cairo and OT4E, and until I get Cairos graphs in the next 2-3 turns, I don't know if Gav feels Cairo is a potential target. But Gav attacking Cairo doesn't fit with OH being #1 in power and attacking a weak superdeath (I don't have his graphs, but he was really backward 20 turns ago, can't have made any real headway), because Gav would be making the first move and would then give OH an opportunity to use bulbed galleons and CKN to start clearing up Cairo if Gav wiped out Cairos army, once Superdeath is evicted from his cities. The only other route Gav has is straight through OT4E who is in an MoM GA, playing Toku of France and I think has a tech lead over Gav.
Meanwhile superjm has awful power (worse than mine) and overseas expansion prospects only.
tl;dr OH has the initiative on at this point, if his war with superdeath goes really well and he starts to roll up against DZ and Lewwyn I'm going to be forced to intervene, but everyone else seems too weak and with too poor MFG to actually do anything.