Taking a break from turn reports to look at the bigger picture.
Basically, I think OH just made a huge strategic mistake attacking Donovan, but no one realised it at the time, and now Gav is going to have an opportunity to just try and roll through everyone that matters.
OH had a window to attack without my being able to interfere, but now I'm building up to attack someone, and he has just taken all my targets away from me and is going to show a really wide border, taken with essentially irreplaceable troops because his MFG sucks.
OH could have attacked 5 players: Myself, Cairo, superdeath, DZ and Lewwyn. All attacks had merits, but I think superdeath was the right choice.
The problem OH and I both face now is that I have no opportunity to attack anyone except Lewwyn, OH or superjm. Gav is going to run over OT4E and then has no reason to stop at superjm. If I attack superjm, I just make that task easier, and weaken myself for that confrontation with Gav. I have to wait on superjm and use him as a buffer state now, or I run the risk of throwing the entire game straight to Gav. So that leaves Lewwyn, and OH. Lewwyn requires I build a navy, so I have to stockpile the army first (Optics eot158 I reckon) plus defensive units to deal with OH becoming frisky as he is left with only attacking me or superdeaths Privateers (OH is currently down Guilds, CS and Paper so no knight conquest and needs to get privateers to deal with superdeath), and the pay off is...8 food resources and a couple of islands if I take all of Lewwyn. If I attack OH, that requires navy to defend with and I just build up an SoD that he has to use CKN to deal with. It's a battle of production which I will eventually win, but not before Gav has eaten OT4E IMO, and has access to an MoM golden age to drop into the next set of civics.
And if OH goes straight for Lewwyn now then it's probably a fight to the death with Gav allowed to clean up.
Basically, I think OH just made a huge strategic mistake attacking Donovan, but no one realised it at the time, and now Gav is going to have an opportunity to just try and roll through everyone that matters.
OH had a window to attack without my being able to interfere, but now I'm building up to attack someone, and he has just taken all my targets away from me and is going to show a really wide border, taken with essentially irreplaceable troops because his MFG sucks.
OH could have attacked 5 players: Myself, Cairo, superdeath, DZ and Lewwyn. All attacks had merits, but I think superdeath was the right choice.
- I was too large, so he couldn't take land and then disengage from teh war. There was no way out unless I let him, and without an artist bomb to hide behind it wasn't going to work. So war of conquest was right out.
- Cairo has the same problem, even if he is weak with poor MFG, his entire empire is built around 2 and 3 pop whips so fighting him would have just run into the problem he could whip up the billion horse archers and cats and win on defense after losing coastal cities. Then there is the additional problem that Gav could vulture any gains, and if it was a stalemate Gav just gets a weaker neighbour to attack.
- DZ is the obvious choice, extremely weak, easily captured land, second shrine but no other point to it, just extra gold. The problem is that even though it's a quick war, he has used up his window of opportunity and now he goes looking for larger prizes I am able to interfere and threaten OH, so he has to defend a wider front just when he wants to start using his troops offensively again. It would have been wiser to do either of the following attacks and then leave DZ for afterwards.
- Superdeath is the straightforward option. Shielded from vulturing, no army to speak of and no tech ability that matters. There is a window to dump units onto his starting island and wipe him out. Spoiler from T154 report though: superdeath has Optics and Paper now, so he can stop the galleon warfare by pumping out privateers and his weakness in army no longer matters! Well played superdeath, you managed to push enough that OH no longer has a route to attack you. If OH had attacked earlier, I would have been unable to punish, and then OH could have swung north and secured DZ and then sat on his spoils behind a still relatively short border. OH would have been back with Gav and myself, and could have prepared his position to try and vulture stuff from Cairo if Gav tried anything, and I'd be stuck with just Lewwyn or superjm as options to attack. This is riskier than attacking DZ, but it has a prize that matters. I don't believe that DZ gives anything or relevant value to OH, who needs tiles to work and workshop.
- OH could have just run straight at Lewwyn. Now this is probably the riskiest option, but also has a humungous payoff if it works. If OH had run straight at Lewwyns cap with everything, taken it and then split his forces, he could have worked south to take the entirety of the DZ island, whilst using his navy to shield me from doing any vulturing, and can use his supply line of units to bolster both of his front cities if I tried anything via land. I am in exactly the same position, with the same material ability to fuck things up for OH, but OH has the greater payoff and the better unit positions to fight from, and possession of actual prizes.
I don't know how this scenario plays out, but what I do know is that with OH landing his stacks against DZ on T147, I don't see how he would land the same units against Lewwyns capital any later than T150 with city captured T151.
The problem OH and I both face now is that I have no opportunity to attack anyone except Lewwyn, OH or superjm. Gav is going to run over OT4E and then has no reason to stop at superjm. If I attack superjm, I just make that task easier, and weaken myself for that confrontation with Gav. I have to wait on superjm and use him as a buffer state now, or I run the risk of throwing the entire game straight to Gav. So that leaves Lewwyn, and OH. Lewwyn requires I build a navy, so I have to stockpile the army first (Optics eot158 I reckon) plus defensive units to deal with OH becoming frisky as he is left with only attacking me or superdeaths Privateers (OH is currently down Guilds, CS and Paper so no knight conquest and needs to get privateers to deal with superdeath), and the pay off is...8 food resources and a couple of islands if I take all of Lewwyn. If I attack OH, that requires navy to defend with and I just build up an SoD that he has to use CKN to deal with. It's a battle of production which I will eventually win, but not before Gav has eaten OT4E IMO, and has access to an MoM golden age to drop into the next set of civics.
And if OH goes straight for Lewwyn now then it's probably a fight to the death with Gav allowed to clean up.