Brexit Political Discussion Thread

[Krill]

Actually BBC are reporting most labour MPs will not back a general election until No Deal is made unlawful.

Which means, I think, that they play into Boris' hand. But I'm not sure. Boris gets control because he chooses the date of prorogation., But does that even matter? And if it is made unlawful then does Boris campaign on changing the law again? And alienate voters?

[MJW (ya that one)]

They just need 50%+1 and then wait out the 14 days.

If Farage wants Brexit he'll just wait until the last second until the compact. He doesn't need to hold it because the NI situation will cause EU to box out UK for him. No way Lib Dem/Labour compact happens in response especially with Corbyn as Leader.

Edit: Farage can just say that it's become obvious that EU would never offer BJ acceptable deal, so BJ only going for removing the backstop is now good enough for him.

[Krill]

VONC and GE are not the same thing.

[Mr. Cairo]

They just need 50%+1 and then wait out the 14 days.

To schedule a new election the way that Boris is threatening, he'd need a 2/3rds majority in parliament. Normally, the opposition can be relied upon to vote for that, because they usually want an election. Right now, the fear in Labour is that Boris will promise to hold the election before the 31st of October. But then after it passes parliament he'll change the date to after, thus forcing no-deal. That's why Labour probably wont vote for the new election.

I actually think that Boris has made a mistake in his threats to Tory rebels. A lot of them have basically decided that this is it, they're not going to run in the next election, so being deselected isn't an issue anymore. It's actually hardened their opposition to Johnson, which means they are more likely to be convinced to vote for Corbyn in a vote of confidence. Or, more likely, they can publicly commit to giving their vote to some other unity PM, which would make it easier for Labour to support that, especially is that unity PM is Harriet Harman.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Labour would just add the line that the election will take place Oct 14th.

Corbyn would never let someone else win so BJ will get a free pass their anyway.

[Krill]

The date of the GE is chosen by the PM and not up for as bunch of MPs to demand IIRC.

[Mr. Cairo]

Labour would just add the line that the election will take place Oct 14th.

That's not how it works. I'm pretty sure the PM has the power to change that date after it's called. It would require some pretty strict legal stuff to remove that power. If it was that easy, then Labour would have said so already.

Also, a Conservative MP just defected to the Lib Dems, so he now has no majority in the HoC.

[MJW (ya that one)]

When I mean change the law. The managed to do that in a week.

Now that BJ is PM he has to be taken out by a VONC so, if Corbyn doesn't change his position, it's really DUP+CON vs Labour only.

[Mardoc]

It didn't hurt that everyone was also planning for post-Brexit politics and weren't willing to sacrifice their own careers and agendas (they'd happily sacrifice someone else's) to get Brexit done in a way that might have made sense.

It sounds like they still are.  Although, to be fair, 'your actions as representative should match what your voters want' is pretty close to the job description.  The fundamental problem may be that the public is so divided, without a majority for any feasible option, and Parliament is just reflecting that.

Question on UK politics:

most labour MPs will not back a general election until No Deal is made unlawful

This sounds like an attempt to bind the future Parliament.  In the US we have a principle that Congress may not bind future Congresses (aside from changing the Constitution), which I always assumed was an inheritance from the UK traditions; am I right?

Of course, that's only in theory.  In practice there's always more support for status quo than for change, so just changing status quo might in practice get them what they want.  Not that the next Parliament doesn't have the power to change the law back to enable No Deal, but they might not have a consensus to do that.

I guess I've a related question on MJW's scenarios: I thought the Fixed-terms Parliament act is itself an act of parliament and thus could be amended by the current Parliament.  I've been assuming that it's off the table as a matter of political norms, that you don't change the way the process works in order to win a single specific political fight.  Is that right?

[Krill]

When I mean change the law. The managed to do that in a week.

Now that BJ is PM he has to be taken out by a VONC so, if Corbyn doesn't change his position, it's really DUP+CON vs Labour only.

...The Queen chooses, as advised by the PM. Constitutional set up, so MPs can't really change that.