We just watch. And Judge. FFH PBEM III Lurker Thread.

[NobleHelium]

It'd probably be less colored if he can scout Nyktorion's capital sometime soon.

[Bobchillingworth]

I think Mardoc is overreacting to Thoth's email; Thoth actually comes across as quite reasonable to me. Mardoc also doesn't seem to have questioned yet how the Malakim have vision on the island, which Thoth alluded to in the email. The Lanun should probably target the Malakim eventually (although Mardoc doesn't actually need that land to win imo), but holding a death-grudge on the basis of that message seems a bit extreme.

[Selrahc]

I think Mardoc is overreacting to Thoth's email; Thoth actually comes across as quite reasonable to me. Mardoc also doesn't seem to have questioned yet how the Malakim have vision on the island, which Thoth alluded to in the email. The Lanun should probably target the Malakim eventually (although Mardoc doesn't actually need that land to win imo), but holding a death-grudge on the basis of that message seems a bit extreme.

Yep.

Considering especially the initial tone Thoth took on receiving that request... This was certainly an attempt to be polite and reasonable. So it's kind of ironic that it got such an angry response.

[Mr. Yellow]

Think you all would like a quick summary of my actions here and why i did it.


Now, my initial goal was to quickly expand to nearby viable areas and grow cottages. Seeing this was gonna be on Erebus Continents, I thought that i’d get a nice amount of green land for the Bannor to grab. This assumption pretty much colored my entire game, so i was surprised that opening the save, i saw….

[SIZE="5"]1: Dust! Dust everywhere!![/SIZE]

Now while i knew there were gonna be quite some desert i didn’t expect to be basically surrounded by it. All nearby grasslands tiles were located west on riverless tracts of hills that certainly couldn’t be used for quick growth or close to the coast east (maybe i should have gone for coastal settlements).
Secondly, all good spots i saw were located around 8 tiles and beyond from the capital.
So i was unsure on how to approach this and finally decided on aggressive settling towards those areas. I pretty much focused on an expand or die game the entire time.

I did find the elves to the east before i started expanding and would honestly have reconsidered my approach if i ever saw their location. Sadly my scout got eaten by a griffin before i ever got the luxury of that, so i was left with a huge black shroud beyond the mountain range, making me take guesses to how it looked like leading to the next topic.

[SIZE="5"]2: Elfland, how does it look like?[/SIZE]

Again, Erebus Continents colored my assumptions here as well and imagined lovely green land around at least 4 to 5 times the size of the little spec that it really is, as well as a decent “road” down south. Secondly, looking at the mountain range i really thought they seemed to be our natural borders and that the elven capital was farther away than it is.
Now i know Nyktorion said he was located in the north-eastern corner of the map, but that land still could easily have been bigger than it is. Even when he settled Yonna i still held on to that.


Finally, the diplomacy with Thoth which could be described as…

[SIZE="5"]3: The cocked banana approach [/SIZE]

When arranging the settling agreement i saw that Thoth were in better condition than most of us, had better expansion opportunities than me and that i knew Mardoc would likely oppose Thoth if it’s a viable strategy.
There were 2 directions this would go i thought. Either that he would agree to my expensive requests in being his friendly neighbor or go hostile and isolate himself from the rest of the world, considering he’s a possible runaway.
That basically describes my diplomacy with Thoth despite not really having the power to do that.
Sadly my assumptions on how Elfland looked like bit me hard and I didn’t see the backstab coming, if only I actually got a look there I might have seen it much earlier.

So yeah, impulsive diplomacy, failure to adapt and especially false assumptions of how the map looked like lead to my downfall. The latter a mistake that I will never ever do again.

[Brian Shanahan]

So what do my fellow lurkers think of it anyway?

My opinions are:
1) Thoth while in the lead isn't in a position to run away with the game at the moment. As he says his empire has matured and won't grow too much (apart from a few Patria cities).
2) I think Nyk, Irgy and WK are a bit paranoid at the moment about him. Yes hes' ahead but can he get out of sight ahead? From the above I'd say no.
3) Mardoc is looking to stay on the fence here. I think this could be the strongest move in the game. Keep stoking the paranoia, build up defences and colonise his island (I believe WK is wrongly attributing this to Thoth at the moment) and then come in on the side of the weaker if the dogpile swings too far either way.

I think Thoth probably should survive the dogpile but he may be hurt too much to win the game. He has enough tech and production to run a defence but a 3v1 would be hard to win if coordinated.

I don't know what Irgy is going to get out of this, he probably should have sent warriors after WK in order to neutralise Sanctuary and then went with PZs at the first opportunity. Without doing that he's stuck in a corner with no outlet. And going after Thoth is going to burn money in maintenance for no gain except at best to strengthen WK and Nyk, the two players he'll be facing right after.

WK and Nyk could both profit from a well run dogpile, but who'll get the spoils, and if Mardoc is happily colonising and teching away with the island, who is going to stop him? Yeah they could win the war but lose the peace very easily in this situation.

@ the players, my apologies if any of the abbreviations of names is taken as bad taste, it was a longish post and I wanted to keep it as quick to write as possible.

[Bobchillingworth]

I agree on pretty much all points of your analysis.


Irgy has actually made even worse decisions than you mention, since he's going to be gifting Ice Mana to WK, who will have Corlindale long before Irgy has a real army of his own.


I think WK would be best off destroying the Sheaim with snowfall + monks / Valin, rather than picking a fight with Thoth. Sheaim territory is the perfect conquest for the Eloheim, being rich in commerce and very well-positioned geographically, from a defensive standpoint.


Mardoc has a real chance to win this game- I'd give him about 35% odds right now. He has enough land to win without fighting anyone, and everybody seems to like him. Dave has been giving him great advice- as long as he keeps expanding, doesn't slack on defense, and avoids alienating his neighbours there's no reason for him to actually go to war for the foreseeable future.

[Selrahc]

Irgy's got his fairly silly plan for a tower victory. A big inconclusive war that weakens everyone but him is good for that, since what you need is time. And at the moment, he is thinking the war will be triggered by Thoth invading Mardoc, leading into a counter invasion by the Eastern powers. With Nyktorion and WarriorKnight being on the frontline, any reprisal won't hurt him. Thoth is likely to be strong enough to not collapse too quickly even with the entire world against him... If it ran out like that it probably would be a good thing for Irgy.

[Selrahc]

With Thoth's recent offer to Nyktorion, I'm seeing parallels to PB's offer to Iskender in PBEM1. Thoth is almost, but not quite a runaway. He is attempting to curtail a dogpile by offering a good deal to a neighbour, probably with the intent to take that neighbour down if the offer is refused. The way the situation plays out is probably going to determine the course of the game.

In PBEM 1, it ended with Iskender refusing the offer and getting ripped to shreds. I doubt Nyktorion would go down so easy, which does rather change the criteria of the decision for him. Definitely a pivotal moment though.

[Bobchillingworth]

I guess that makes you Mardoc and Cull Irgy, huh?



This is a really fun game to lurk- it's about the perfect balance of talents and personalities. It also helps that everyone updates frequently

[Amelia]

There's a wild card this time though, in the form of the Elohim. They can't be touched yet, they have enough military in their own right, their going to get Corlindale soon (And no one has assassins)...

Also, before i forget, Mr. Yellow, you actually did quite well, if it was a single-player approach. I think what's striking everyone so far in the PBEM FFHs is that multi-player is vastly different from single. Only PB so far managed to avert it and adjusted his mindset in PBEM 1.

Selrahc = Made an army of mages... which did not go too well.
Bob = Thought he would win with vampires, and was utterly demolished.
Iskender = Tried to bunker down with archers... and was ruthlessly taken apart.

What is surprising is that all 3 strategies would have worked, if say, the opponent wasn't PB who has ridiculous battle tactics, powerful spells, the flanking Centaur Archers, and the knowledge of when to strike (Just before the opponents were ready).

Cull and Sareln were aimed early by a PoW rush, and thus almost didn't figure into the game at all.

I think you felt into the same trap, by simply expending without caring too much about the backlash. Sure, the AI might complain a bit with a -1 (Our close borders causes tensions), but here it's like -10 (You came too close).