Do they know that we know that they know that we know that they know ...?

[pling]

C&D news of the turn (ie not TEAM's war dec ...) is that Menagerie researched The Wheel (6 points, 4k soldiers).

[plako]

Pling can you check if TEAM still has 2 warriors after their turn.

[pling]

Ooh, I can connect to the forums again, just after I hit send on an email to plako with the answer to the question:

TEAM have had an 8k power increase in their T32, they also got 6 points score so have a tech. The most plausible answer is that they teched Bronze Working and still have the same number of Warriors as before. There's an outside possibility that they researched Archery and built another warrior, I find that less plausible.

In the email to plako I said "and still have 2 Warriors". But I don't actually know that for sure. I've got them down as having researched Hunting (T5), Mining (T21) & Animal Husbandry (T15), all of those are 2k soldiers which is the same as a Warrior - it's possible that one of those (Hunting? AH?) was actually some other tech and a Warrior build at the same time. I'd orginally thought that was less plausible, but would they really move all their Warriors out towards us and leave their capital bare? Perhaps it's more likely that they researched Pottery T15 and built a Warrior at the same time. Giving them a total of 3 Warriors.

[pling]

Woke up in the middle of the night & realised I can do better than the above, but I was damned if I was getting out of bed to run the numbers in the wee hours of the morning

So.

We're teching AH and have a GNP of 22, that breaks down as:

8 from capital
4 from EPs
4 from culture
1 from the extra beaker
1 from our city tile commerce
1 from our worked tiles commerece
2 because we have one of the pre-reqs for AH
1 because we've met 2 civs that know AH

TEAM definitely know AH.

If that was Bronze Working they just researched, they definitely know Mining.

So the only one of the three 2k techs that's in doubt is Hunting, which I have them pegged as researching on T5. Based on observed GNP they could only have researched Hunting or Fishing on that turn (not enough beakers for anything else). Fishing plus a Warrior would be possible, but that seems not just unorthodox but frankly bizarre as a start for a capital location that has no water in its BFC ...

I am really looking forward to seeing their graphs so I can check if the observed numbers have any relationship to the real numbers It's possible they've done an elaborate deception during the first few turns and squeezed out Mining on T5, leaving the T21 tech as something with no soldier points plus a Warrior. But that would mean they made a Warrior T19 and T21 which seems unlikely. And if they researched AH on T21 & something else T15 and built a Warrior then, then I think they'd've grown sooner than T19.

I think they're more likely to have 2 warriors than 3.

Does that logic makes sense to anyone else? In particular I'd like to know if any of the better civ players agrees with me that Archery this turn is unlikely, and Fishing to start is unlikely, because a lot of the logic hangs around that.

And when do we get their graphs, they've been the hardest team to get a handle on so far

[plako]

yeah Fishing on T5 and Archery now are highly unlikely.

[pling]

Thanks

I've thought of another thing to check, but I won't be able to log onto the game till quite a bit later today.

Can someone check for me what our GNP is if we set research to Hunting?

Gillette definitely have Hunting (it's one of their starting techs), so I think our GNP will be 20 if TEAM have Hunting, and 19 if they don't.

[novice]

Great work. I agree that two warriors sounds most likely.

So I guess that means our scout enters TEAM territory this turn.

[pling]

I know scouts can't attack but if our scout sits on a tile does that prevent TEAM working it?

[novice]

I know scouts can't attack but if our scout sits on a tile does that prevent TEAM working it?

Yes.

[pling]

OK, so TEAM definitely have hunting (thanks for checking that for me, plako), they have definitely have AH, and they have Mining (coz of BW research this turn). That accounts for 3 of their 4 2k soldier increases. So they've only built one warrior, for a total of 2 Warriors both of which we can see ...