Ok, I guess its time for last ditch survival post.
First of all, glad to be vindicated about correctly pegging Jkaen as the double voter. I do think it was anti-town to use it like you did, and you claimed onyl when you were under some pressure. On the other hand, I can also totally see myself doing the same thing you did Night 1 out of interest, like Ryan played with Azza's vote in the puppetmaster game. If we didn't lynch Brick for outright lying to us, I don't think you're immediately lynchworthy either.
I am sure that one of the claimed vigilantes is scum. I just don’t’ believe there is that much killing ability in the game. I agree with Uber that it doesn’t make sense for his ability to power up himself AND another killer. I agree with Zak that having 3 vig shots suddenly open up in the end game is crazy, and not in a fun way. It basically results in the entire game coming down to Brick and Uber’s targeting ability.
I had thought Lewwyn could have been scum, it just seems so hard not to believe that he happened to vig Azza on a night with only one other scum kill. Now that I am in my own unlikely situation, I am more sympathetic to it. Plus his role makes sense to me, flavour wise, I think his response to Mattimeo was towny and I think he has generally just given town vibes throughout.
If Lewwyn is town, then I think Pindicator is too. Lewwyn thinks Pindicator is vulnerable to his kill, and it seems a lot more likely that Lewwyn had a vig ability that could kill ghouls + 1 town than ghouls + 1 wolf. Also, Pindi has been pretty townish in our QT I think.
So that leaves me with Brick and Uber. Meanwhile, what the hell happened last night? Well, I guess I don’t know for sure, but if there aren’t any protection roles left out there, the wolves must have just chosen not to kill. I don’t think that’s completely implausible, for several reasons.
1. One of the vig’s is a wolf, and they knew after the roleclaim chaos end of Day 3 that the 3 vigilantes were going to be a focus of today. The ‘bad vig’ wanted more cover to keep himself alive, so was happy to leave the other two alive. Furthermore, by not killing it gives us another topic to discuss instead of the plausibility of our vigilante setup.
2. If the wolves control the tiebreak or double vote, they may have calculated that missing a kill wouldn’t hurt them too badly. I’m not good enough with the maths and I don’t know enough of the variables, but they might have worked out that no-killing would likely give them the victory on the same day as a kill today would, and so wanted more of the herd alive to hide amongst until then.
3. If the wolves knew about Pindicator’s ability, they would know that whoever he landed on would immediately be heavily implicated by no night-kill. They might have gambled that Pindi wouldn’t be on one of them, and saw it as a perfect opportunity to get a free lynch day.
That might seem dangerous, as Pindi could land on one of them anyway, but its less dangerous if there are only two wolves, and especially less dangerous if one of the wolves had already had a turn on the Pindi-go-round.
So yes, I’m coming around to
Brick. I was suspicious of Uber earlier in the game, but I think he has been showing himself pretty logical and townish in the last day or so. More importantly, HE was the one who claimed the third vigilante role and opened that can of worms, which he didn’t have to do. And if he was doing it to frame Brick, why would he follow it up with a role-scry that seemed to let Brick off the hook?
Jowy, I don’t buy that both Uber and Brick are scum, because Uber would never tie himself so closely to another scumbuddy like that.
So I think its Brick. In fact, I’m pretty sure of it. Yes, I thought that he seemed townish in his posts yesterday, but in the light of what has happened since, he seems pretty scummy to me right now.
I don’t have time to do one of those running right thorugh all Brick’s posts things, but to summarise the salient points.
1. Everything from Day 2: Brick lied to us about his role. He voted MJW for focusing too much on a mechanic that HE introduced.
2. Brick posted a LOT when he was on the block yesterday, offering a new and improved talky Brick. Once the spotlight moved today, he has gone down to a minimum.
3. Brick was blocked by Pindicator the night that there was (assuming Lewwyn is town) a missing kill.
4. Brick was the only person other than Pindicator who knew that the block would happen, and what the likely effect of a no-kill order would be on the poor sap in Pindicator’s QT topic.
5. Brick claimed a role that seems very strong, that seems to double-up with Uberfish’s, and which basically demands that we keep him alive until the end game.
6. Look at this post:
(June 30th, 2013, 16:12)BRickAstley Wrote: Well okay, since that's where Pindicator visited/stopped, I'm willing to go with Gazglum as well.
This is also part of the reason I was so set on novice, I knew Pindicator had the kill-block and felt likely that that is why there was one less kill.
So Brick knew that Pindicator would have blocked Novice’s kill on Day 3. But he NEVER mentioned this? Sure, I understand why you wouldn’t want to spill the beans about a friend’s abilities if there was no need. But Brick was in a 2 horse survival race with Novice the whole day, and needed every bit of help he could get. Is it really feasible that he wouldn’t use this evidence?
The only reason I can see that Brick wouldn’t want that to be discussed, is because it would lead to the question of if Brick was blocked on Night 1. Which he was.
The only evidence in Brick's favour is Uberfish’s scry result. But it didn’t directly back up his claim. Only ‘learns by day, fires by night’. I don’t know what that means. Maybe Brick is an arsonist, and Serdoa is being a smart-alec in his wording. Maybe he has a day ability and a night ability, in which case he’s lied to us again. Maybe he IS a vigilante, but on the wolf side, if that’s even possible. Or maybe ‘fires by night’ just refers to the fact that he has a night kill.
Finally, even if you think I am scum, if you think that Brick might be too, please vote for him tonight first. Sanity is still 13, and I think I have a good chance of getting another successful scry off. Then you can lynch me tomorrow and have more information than you would today. And if Brick shows up scum, which I’m pretty sure he will, maybe you’ll believe me anyway. And if Uber makes it through, you don’t even have to waste a lynch on me, he could vig shot me tomorrow and prove my alignment.
I know the meta case against me looks bad, but remember the last time I was ‘caught red handed’ by meta, I was town. I’m not a wolf.
