Cheater Hater's PBEM58 Thread (with a surprise post lead!)

[Cheater Hater]

And now we're back on schedule--turns out not actually naming the angry post the T51 Report was prophetic in hindsight...
T51 Report
Well, based on what SevenSpirits told us, assuming B4ndit didn't hack in a Great General HA or some Gunships, I should still have the city--let's see how much of a beating it took:


It's not that bad, actually. I have 2 archers left, one of which gets to promote--basically him winning the first battle is canceled out by me winning the third battle. Here's the relevant combat logs--the first archer vs HA battle is the same as in the manipulated turn, and the Warrior battles are still slaughters

As you can see in the screenshot, I moved my axe into the city, and also chopped to finish yet another archer, leaving me with four defenders vs four attackers. Still, my defenders are in worse shape than his attackers (note he hasn't promoted yet, and I assume the first HA will get a promotion at the very least), so I did one more thing on that front:


Yes, I'm finally giving in and giving B4ndit back his city if he wants it. The main reason is that I'm not likely to win any of the battles here--I think my best odds are the fresh archer getting 50/50 against one of his damaged HA's, or maybe my C2 axe (it was only getting 30% attacking a damaged HA, but maybe the 40% culture bonus helps it more than I think), and as such he can probably win my city without losing any attackers. That would mean I'd lose 4 units, as well as the Worker I had to leave behind to chop the archer, all for a chance of him losing, 1 pop, and a single turn of city revolt.

Now to my domestic plans:


If things look similar to the original turn, that's because they do--the plan is still to gain peace (only with B4ndit missing a couple Horse Archers, and me having more defensive units), resettle Lontano Villa, build some Praets, and research Currency and Construction before either attacking B4ndit or AT depending on how the power scores add up. The scout move is also the same as the original turn, so I won't bother posting it.

As for C&D, still not doing anything comprehensive until I get peace/get really bored, but here's a quick B4ndit power check, since it's easy: no new units, just the loss of the 2 HA's and the Chariot:
B4ndit: 84k (Mining+BW+Wheel+AH+IW+HR+Archery+2 Warriors+2 Axe+3 HA+Barracks/Archer+10 pop)
My power actually is 86k before the turn roll (aka not counting the new Praet/Archer), meaning I'm top dog again--granted, I would probably lose 16k when B4ndit took the city (15k units+1k pop), so I still think it was the right move, but you certainly could argue not trying to get peace--and B4ndit might even reject my offer and try to get greedy, which makes my peace offer moot

[Cheater Hater]

T52 Report:
So, what happened with my peace deal? I think I'll just let B4ndit tell you himself:


Yes, we finally have peace. I'd say my temporary loan of Harena Desert was profitable for me, though its major impact was taking B4ndit out of the immediate running. As I said before, the main thing I invested in this war that didn't come from Harena itself were the initial two axes used to defend Lontano Villa and Harena Desert, as well as the Lontano Villa's settler and a bunch of worker turns. In exchange, I got around 15 turns of working the oasis and hamlet/village, as well as the worker out of Lontano Villa and the three surviving archers, as well as a unit well on its way to Level 4 and the Heroic Epic. However, this battle came at the expense of stagnating my development to a point--while I don't know how many techs I've fallen behind in the last couple turns (the marginal C&D updates I missed is the plan for my next post, hopefully followed by fixing the SPLT problems I uncovered during my soldier point calculations), my score and GNP have greatly fallen in recent turns--granted, the 35 GNP you'll see this turn is mostly an anomaly caused by whipping Caldisla/reassigning Norende's scientists, but it's still a lot worse than the other civs.

Anyway, enough philosophizing about the war, let's get back to looking ahead:


As I mentioned, I whipped the settler in Caldisla, and I'm planning on using the overflow to finally finish that darn granary I started forever ago--I think I started it before the first war even. After that, I'll finish the Praet I started so I don't lose the overflow, then slow-build/chop the library so I can grow back onto those cottages and get my GNP back to reasonable levels.

In Norende, I have a slightly different plan. I'm moving the worker that roaded the mines to chop/pasture the second pigs, and building a worker to chop some of the southern forests. Those chops will go into another settler, which will go to the city by the rice. The one negative with that city to start with is that there's not much to defend it with at first (only the scouting warrior, as well as the warrior that was in Norende that is now scouting a bit after Norende's Praet finished), though I'm planning for the Praet coming out of Caldisla to be guarding that city.

Now to my new "south":


As I've mentioned before, the Lontano Villa spot is being resettled with Caldisla's new settler, and it actually gets there really quickly--if I move the two workers to the forest next turn (note to self: check that tile next turn after moving one worker to see if I need both; I think I might have one turn of roading there) I can road that tile, and the settler can end T53 on the horses, T54 on the city ruins, then settle T55 and build a library immediately--I'm going to be under immediate culture pressure by Peace--with the help of some chops. Medium-term I think I want to settle an eastern city in the south--I think it's going to have to be the currently-fogged tile instead of my preferred slot, thanks to eastway getting there first--I think I can still settle that spot, I just can't hold it. Part of the southern goal is to scout with some of these refugee units; not only defogging the south but getting vision on eastway's new cities.

As for tech path, not much has changed--I still need Currency to pull my GNP out of the gutter, and then I'm getting Masonry for certain (since it's only a couple turns). After that I'm not sure--should I get aggressive and head for Construction, or should I backfill my religious techs to clear a path to Monarchy (and make my score look better )? Head for Metal Casting to get Forges? Backfill Sailing for Lighthouses, then possibly head for Calendar? A lot of this depends on where everyone else is on the tree, something I'll figure out more in my C&D.

Not much else, so I'll just stick the scout move in here--I see silver!

[Cheater Hater]

T50-52 C&D:
Okay, time for some marginal catch-up--I'm not calculating non-B4ndit soldier points yet, and these PLT points are all provisional--I found an irreconcilable error in Twinkletoe's T45 soldier points during the last SPLT catch-up, which means something's wrong there, and I'll tackle it in another post. In addition, I'm going to try to pay attention to land points popping up, though those are always touchy. Anyway, on to T50 demos:

• eastway gained 22 points: This smells like land tiles, although we did see 2 pop growths (in Brimtho and Dale). That leaves 8 points left, which could be many things. I am confused though, since eastway lost those same 22 points last turn--I have no clue
  
• Twinkletoes lost 8 points: This is a similar situation to eastway's last turn (2 pop loss and gaining an ancient tech), though I don't know anymore--we know Twinkletoes lost Castle Rock, and another whip is plausible--I can diagnose this all later :/
  
• AT gained 18 points--another likely land point situation (unless he got a medieval tech somehow), and I'm not in the mood for those
  

Now to soldier points: 4k total loss, 6k Min loss, 6k Max gain. This is probably related to eastway/Twinkletoes's war, which is the main reason I'm not posting the soldier graphs for this set--they're in the Dropbox folder if you're really interested though

Now to T51 demos--please be easier

• eastway lost 7 points, a pop point (a 2-pop whip in Brimtho and a growth in E or F)--that's a good start
  
• AT gained 13 points, an ancient tech and a pop point (1-pop whip in Say My Name, growths in Ozy and Full Measure)
  
• Twinkletoes gained 8 points--stupid land points spoiling my mood, and it's another copy of the decrease from last turn--honestly, I'm going to say for both of these it just goes back to what it was the turn before, then plug in my known increases and hope the numbers work out without too many phantom points
  
• B4ndit gained 6 points, an ancient tech
  

Soldier points: 11k net decrease, Max decrease by 16k, Min unchanged--that leaves 5k increase to figure out eventually, which isn't that bad I guess :/

Finally, T52 demos--let's continue the easy trend

• eastway gained 7 points, regaining the pop point (in Annu)
  
• AT gained 7 points, founding his new city of ABQ (which I forgot to mention in the update proper)
  
• Twinkletoes lost 2 points--I give up
  Seriously, this is either land points, or possibly a loss of two pop points plus a classical tech--I actually like that second explanation more
  
• B4ndit gained 41 points--this is the 3 pop points from Peace obviously, but then I'm not sure--my go-to answer would be two growths and a ancient tech, but Istanbul didn't grow. It could be pop point+classical tech+phantom point, or it more likely is land points--the land point counter resets whenever the city switches hands, right? It didn't suddenly gain the points from Edirne?
  

One more soldier point breakdown before I'm done for now: 8k net increase, 8k Max increase, 1k Max decrease. One thing I think this tells me is that Twinkletoes is the min (just like I thought when we were doing soldier points in the last cleanup), but this appears to confirm it, since he's the only one to lose points this turn (unless I somehow missed yet another war )

That wasn't nearly as bad as I thought it was--if we assume I'm going to just ignore the mirrored blips the PLT is reasonable to do, but Twinkletoes's soldier problem back on T45 means there's still a problem--I'll work on that later though, I've done enough number crunching for one day, and I want to enjoy the peace

[Cheater Hater]

Just a quick update: I played T53, but I'm not going to get a full report for it before I'm gone for most of the day. The pictures are in my dropbox folder if you're interested, though not that much happened--builds completed, more scouting, Twinkletoes is really reckless still

Edit: I just played T54, I'm writing both reports now

[Cheater Hater]

T53 Report:
As I said in my quick report, this turn's pretty boring. Let's start with the capital/area where I have cities


Not much here--moving workers, finishing a worker, Starkfort's about to grow, Settler moved under the Praet. Now to the south:


Moving stuff around--workers will road, settler is coming through, axe is going to defog the one tile I haven't defogged yet. Now to the scout move:


Really? Not even a token warrior? Bad Twinkletoes
Seriously, at least he has a road to it--B4ndit didn't even have that

T54 is coming shortly--it's slightly more exciting than this turn

[Cheater Hater]

T54 Report:
Another fun turn--just in case you're think I'm still doing okay, the top cities dialog puts a stop to that:


Yes, Caldisla isn't on the top five
Full disclosure: Caldisla pops back on the listing at #4 after ending turn (when it regrows onto the hamlet), but still, I'm not in the best of shape. Now let's stop with the self-pity and get to the report proper, starting with the capital area:


Not that much here--the Granary is finally going to finish next turn in Caldisla, and more chopping is occurring. Norende deserves a special note, though: I'm going to build the Archer for 2 turns (letting Norende grow to size 5), then I'll put both the chops into a new settler, and I'm not planning to whip it. After that I think I want another worker out of there (after finishing the archer just because), then I'll whip a worker or two--by that time I should have completed pasturing the pigs, so I should be good. Maybe I want to try for Pyramids out of there

Now to the south:


The settler has reached the plain hill--Lontano Villa will be avenged!
Also, I did end up wasting a worker turn--that road on the plains tile should completed this turn, but it'll be done in time for the city to be founded at least
I also unfogged the last tile there--and what a tile it is! I think that actually changes my dotmap--instead of settling on the copper, I'll settle 1N of the copper on the grassland hill. This spot has all sorts of advantages beyond not settling on copper--hill defense and food in the first ring being the main ones, along with also fitting with my gold city in the long term--and the main reason for settling the original spot (grabbing the southern wheat) doesn't apply since eastway got there first. And speaking of eastway, he better not be looking at my undefended worker with hungry eyes--I did cover the rest of my stuff as much as possible, even though I assume eastway's just going to scout my capital area.

Now to a new area (that's not much more than a scout move at this point): the east!


Wow, the plains farm hill city has iron too? That city's getting better all the time! I'm thinking I should maybe settle that city first, before the rice city--I just need to make sure I can defend it, and not get my settler sniped in the meantime. I mean, I have Caldisla's Praet, Norende's Archer, and at least one of the scouting warriors ready to defend it, and it has the hill defense besides. It also blocks off eastway's northern expansion, and he's the one I'm more worried about--I should be able to take AT's cities if I want them, given a bit of buildup.

Now to my actual scout move--I guess you could call this the west?


So much lake seafood! I'm not sure which direction I want to take the scout next--I think I want to go south around the lake, since I'll reveal more relevant tiles--I know it doesn't look like it since I have so many good cities in the south and east, but I still need to at least look at possible cities in the west (and further north, which is where my scout is headed next).

Marginal C&D is coming soon, then eventually a catch-up C&D post--of course, hopefully we'll also get a third turn in tonight

[Cheater Hater]

T55 Report:
I'm getting bored with the standard screenshot progression, so let's start with something different: eastway's diplo screen!


Gold and trade--that means eastway has both Currency (which he got end of T52, double-checking my saves) and Sailing (since I don't see the trade until I found my new city, and I don't see any clear road to eastway from that city--though I don't see any clear water route there either, unless the coast gets there somehow). Looking at the screen, this is why eastway's scary--even if we assume eastway's at 0% science, that's much more than I am--I'm currently getting +17 gold at 0%--that's working the second cottage over the gems, but that's still a three-to-one advantage--it's not quite as bad as it looks since a sizable amount of my GNP comes from my Academy and scientists, but it's certainly not good

The other notable thing we can see from the trade screen is that eastway is still missing iron! The old PLT rankings had eastway at one Classical tech that wasn't IW or HR, and we know eastway has at least two Classical techs now (Math and Currency), and as such isn't going to be hooking up that iron for a while--and if he does, that means Horse Archers are even farther away.

That was interesting--now to the boring compass-point shots, starting with the capital--I did put on the resource bubbles for a change of pace at least:


Other than a bunch of forest chops, the main change here is that I'm working the second cottage over the gems at Caldisla--this is costing me some commerce/hammers in the short-term (as well as a spot on the top cities list ), but I grow a turn quicker this way--unfortunately I have to work the cottage both this turn and the next (otherwise I'm one food short ), although I should still get to Currency in 4 turns.

Now to the south, where we have our new city!


Yes, it's still called Rome--I didn't even think about naming it until I started putting the report together, so I'll need to name it next turn
The culture situation is weird--as you can see I still have a ton of culture in the Lontano Villa/Harena Desert area--I even displaced one of B4ndit's axes by settling the city. Right now the plan is to chop out a Granary and Library, as well as pasturing the sheep. Hopefully I'll be able to get enough culture in the city before the holy city capital becomes too much (Hindu spread pretty please? I won't tell ). Heck, maybe the plan is to put the second Academy in there mainly for culture purposes? That can't be right, can it?

Now to the east, where I need to decide where city 5 is going:


One of the biggest things I want to figure out before I decide where the city it going is where Ankara is--and seriously, where is it? It has to be to the west of Istanbul, but I have no clue where it could be--it must be right next to Istanbul I guess. I have to find it eventually--hopefully I find it before B4ndit eventually gets a 4th city out there :/

Finally, to my western scouting:


Wow, this area is a mess--ice, peaks, tundra, and lots of deer. A quick mechanics question: can a work boat move between the two spaces in the lake east of my scout? If so, I could put a city on the hill 1N of my scout (where AT's scout is) and be able to net two different crabs, even if the southern crabs can't be worked by that city. Of course, there's no chance of me settling a city here anytime soon (this is probably Twinkletoes's territory if he wants it), but it's still worth scouting it

C&D is coming next--and I actually plan on completing relatively shortly this time, unlike last turn where I put it off and the turn rolled before I could get to it

[Cheater Hater]

T53-55 C&D
Another marginal C&D post--I don't know if it's good timing to do the turns 3 at a time, or if it's just coincidence
Now to my number crunching, starting with T53:

• AT gained 27 points--this would be 3 pop increases and an ancient tech, but I only see 2 pop increases (Say My Name and Felina). It could be either a classical tech+a phantom point, or more land points could be showing up (13 points=5 tiles)--I'll check whenever I do the full C&D rebuild I keep putting off
  
• eastway gained 19 points, a classical tech (which we know is Currency) and a pop point (in Calembel)
  
• Twinkletoes gained 7 points, a pop point
  

Soldier points next: 21k total increase, Max unchanged, 7k Min increase. This smells like AT got one of the 10k classical techs (along with Twinkletoe's Axe+pop and an unaccounted for chariot), but I obviously won't know for sure for a while.

That was surprisingly easy--now to T54:

• AT gained 7 points, a pop point (increases in Say My Name and Felina, as well as a 1-pop whip in Calembel)
  
• eastway gained 20 points, 2 pop points (Dale and one of the new cities), along with an ancient tech
  
• Twinkletoes gained 15 points--this smells like land points
  

Now for soldier points: 14k total increase, Max unchanged, 4k Min increase--this one looks harder to figure out

Finally we have T55--let's see if B4ndit can actually show up to the party

• eastway gained 7 points, a pop point in one of the new cities (yes I checked, and Dale is still at size 5, if you're following along with my overview shots )
  
• Twinkletoes gained 20 points, 2 pop points and an ancient tech
  

I'm wondering if it's worth it to actually make the PLT chart using my marginal results at this point, or just wait until I decide to fix the power points. I honestly think it might be best to try to use the power graph to figure out people's points (now that there aren't any wars going on)--what the heck, I'll try that now:


Oops, that's this turn's GNP graph--seriously, how the heck does eastway have that much GNP in a single turn? I'm assuming part of it was just going from 0% to 100%, combined with library boosts, along with arrow and known tech bonuses, but still :/
Let's try that again--I want the power graph this time:


Let's draw a couple lines to help figure out this graph diagnosis:

• B4ndit we know is 92k, since he is the clear max--we can even calculate his total almost perfectly, since we've seen the majority of his troops.
  
• We've been assuming Twinkletoes is the min, which is currently 58k--it connects to my graph between T42-43, which was 55k-62k, and it's slightly under halfway, which makes sense for what we have.
  
• eastway connects to my graph between T48-T49, with a range of 68k-74k, and it's on the high end of that--my untrained eye says 73k, though it could be 72k--that's why we need the analysis
  
• If we assume the other totals are accurate, that means AT has a soldier count of 297-92-58-73=74k or 75k--this works and it's higher than I expected, though we'll find out for sure when I get AT's graphs (which should be after I end the next turn)
  

So that's a preliminary power ranking, and I'm not sure what to do next C&D-wise--I think what I do is finish the PLT rankings (using my incomplete, likely wrong information), then I'll finish going over incremental power, get to current day, see how much I'm off (only for eastway/AT, since I know B4ndit/Twinkletoes are the max/min at this point), then fudge a bit to get to the graph-divined numbers--they obviously won't be perfect, but they'll be telling me a lot more information then the current information I have (nothing other than the graphs). I don't know when I'll do that, but it'll probably be sooner rather than later, depending on when I get the next turn (and whenever PB18 finally gets started ).

[Cheater Hater]

T56 Report:
On one hand you could say this turn isn't that interesting; I'm mainly just improving some land, chopping some forests, and trying to get somewhat competitive in city count. On the other, there's a lot of C&D this turn--I actually took 14 total pictures this turn (and that's after deleting two graph pictures I took before we got AT's at EOT): the 4 compass points, 3 Civ overview shots for use in C&D, 4 F8 shots (GNP, Power, Demos, Top Cities), and we even have some interesting Espionage to round things out. But that comes later in the next post; we'll start with the boring stuff first:


Norende is going as scheduled, and possibly even better: I checked the numbers after the turn, and if I have them right, I'll actually complete the settler exactly next turn when the southern chop comes in. Caldisla is more interesting though, since it's growing extremely fast thanks to the two food tiles and the granary. It will grow to size 6 end of T58 (thankfully right when the whip anger ends), and then I think I'll switch to a settler there, aiming for a 2-pop whip of it. After that, I'll build a worker there, then get back to the library--hopefully I won't end up delaying it as long as I did the granary

As for the worker currently cottaging 1N of the wheat, that's actually not for Caldisla--that's for Starkfort, since it needs a third tile, at least for the short term (since I'm going to whip the granary soon). Also, don't worry about Currency going back to 4 turns--that's just a side effect of firing Norende's scientists to finish the settler quickly, and when Caldisla grows back onto the gems at EOT, Currency goes to 2 turns as expected (and with 0 deficit to boot )


Yes, I forgot to rename Rome again--I've been putting off playing the last couple turns for a couple hours, and I'm in a bit of a rush, so I forget--it's just a name
Rome is going faster than normal--the pasture will finish next turn, which means it'll grow end of T58. I'm not sure what I should do with the workers after they finish what they're doing right now though--I think the best plan is to move the worker that doesn't need to chop next turn onto the next forest, then have the pasturing worker join him next turn. I'm not sure what to do with the worker that finishes the first chop though--he can either mine the plains hill he's currently on, or cottage the remaining floodplain. In addition, I'm not sure if I should put the chops into the library, instead of the granary, to get the border popped faster. Then again, if I'm putting the Academy in there (and it seems fine on a conceptual level; the main reason I wouldn't is because of the possibility of losing it again, and since I have 3 good units in there now it should be okay), I don't need the library immediately.


Not much here--still no sign of B4ndit's city; is it north of Istanbul? I'm tempted to at least ask B4ndit for open borders again so I can try to find it, though I doubt he'll accept--if there was diplo I'd play up the "we're 4th and 5th on the scoreboard and need the help", but if there was diplo there probably wouldn't have been war in the first place since I would have signed a NAP with all my neighbors
Then again, I don't think I'll have much time for scouting, since I have to get to moving my warriors to my new city, at least until the Praet arrives--still, I don't think it can hurt to ask


Even less interesting than the east

C&D is coming up next, and I promise this time--it's really interesting as I mentioned above

[Cheater Hater]

T56 C&D:
As I mentioned in the report, we have a lot of interesting new stuff today--but to get through the new bits of number crunching, we have to get through the old number crunching, so demos first!

• AT gained 40 points--we can see 3 pop growths (in Say My Name, Felina, and Full Measure), leaving 29 points, the majority of which are land points. An ancient tech means 9 tiles (odd being 3) and a classical tech means 7 tiles (odd being 2)--I can figure this out when I do the full PLT rebuild.
  
• Twinkletoes gained 33 points--and honestly, I think my analysis for Twinkletoes is going to end sooner rather than later, at least until I get visibility on some of his cities. That could be any number of pop points/techs/land points, and since I have no idea of how many land tiles each of his cities has, I don't know which proportion of each of those they are. The thing that annoys me most is that I'm pretty sure that information is there, hidden in the land area points in each turn's demos, combined with the population score to help figure out each city's size--is it bad that I feel like I'm doing something wrong by not digging into those numbers to figure this stuff out? I mean, I like trying to figure out the math (which is why I started doing such detailed C&D in the first place), but even I'm having my limits. Maybe there's a way to take out the hardest-to-do C&D, while still leaving in the important stuff (soldier points and non-land score)?
  
• eastway lost 22 points--that fits with losing 4 population (2 in Annu and 2 in Dale) and gaining an ancient tech)
  
• B4ndit finally decided to change, gaining 12 points with a classical tech
  

One more thing before the new stuff: Soldier Points! 21k total increase, 15k max increase, 6k min increase. Obviously the min is easy, but how does B4ndit get 15k in one turn, especially considering he has both IW and HR already? It's actually not that hard--Math, a Axe/HA and an Archer(/Barracks). That's actually all that happened, unless someone lost power.

How can we figure that out? How about the new graphs? (transitions are easy! )




The new GNP graph's showing just how scary eastway is--eastway at (presumably) 0% science is still higher than AT (GNP #2)'s peak.

Now to power--the simple part is that AT gained 2k power and eastway lost 2k power--presumably that's all based on pop, though I'll be able to figure that out later. As for AT's score, I said it was 74k-75k before (before the 2k increase), and that makes sense with the graph--I didn't publish it, but I did do the line test and it looks more like 75k (which means eastway is 72k--seeing as how the two graphs aren't stacked on top of one another, that makes sense. That means the current power rankings are:
B4ndit: 107k (Mining+BW+Wheel+AH+IW+HR+Archery+2 Warriors+2 Axe+3 HA+2 Axe/HA+2 Archer/Barracks+14 pop)
AT: 77k
eastway: 70k
Twinkletoes: 64k
Obviously I don't have full breakdowns yet, but I can figure that out when I do the full rebuild, which I'll do eventually--every time I do the C&D I get one step closer to making the full rebuild doable

Now, before I forget, we also have some espionage to talk about--3 cities have above average Sabotage Production costs, so I'll check what those mean in hammers (espionage screens in spoiler tags--there's been enough pictures in this post )

Brimtho: ((459/975)*650)/6=51 hammers
Dale: ((997/1137)*650)/6=95 hammers
Say My Name: ((524/1053)*650)/6=54 hammers

Brimtho and Say My Name aren't that much out of the ordinary--they're either libraries or settlers. Dale is much more interesting--that's a wonder. Obviously I can't tell which wonder it could be based anything other than tech selection, but I assume eastway's making a run at the Pyramids. That means there's no reason for me to try, unless I really want the fail gold, and I have Currency so I can build gold normally anyway
I mean, I still want Masonry anyway so I can get Construction, so I'll see--maybe I can get the Great Lighthouse if I want it, or maybe he's building the Great Wall for some reason