August 31st, 2021, 12:07
(This post was last modified: August 31st, 2021, 12:11 by Gustaran.)
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(August 31st, 2021, 11:05)Cornflakes Wrote: In the over-50 age group: more vaccinated individuals were admitted and died than unvaccinated
This is a useless fact if you do not take into account the overall group size in the population. The over-50 age group has been given priority of vaccinations, so a large part of the population in this group is already vaccinated. For example, if you have 85% of elderly vaccinated and 15% not vaccinated, of course you will be getting a larger share of vaccinated people in the hospitals, because there are many times more vaccinated people to begin with (and the vaccine is not 100% effective at preventing hospitalizations). At the same time, people with risk factors for hospitalization are more likely to have been vaccinated in the first place.
If we were to push this further: If we reach 100% vaccinations status, all patients in hospitals are vaccinated. 
Edit: Crosspost with Jowy, check out his link which explains it even better 
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Wtf.
Correlation is not causation. People died after having covid for other reasons than covid. and not even considering population sizes.
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September 3rd, 2021, 16:32
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Someone need to learn about conditionnal probabilities
Take it to the extrem, if 100% were vacinated, you would unfortunatly still have a few seriously sick and/or dead. Guess what : 100% of those unlucky dead would be vacinated people (but luckily that would be 90%+ less dead that if no one was vaccinated)...
September 15th, 2021, 02:01
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Republicans are mad at General Milley for working to prevent A NUCLEAR WAR WITH CHINA
These people really believe they can just nuke any country on earth and everything will be a-okay.
September 15th, 2021, 19:09
Bobchillingworth
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They're complaining now because they're opportunistic cowards, and there's no political downside. I have no doubt that they'd have been happy to see Milley personally depose Trump in a coup, if the alternative was being vaporized by a Chinese ICBM.
September 15th, 2021, 19:50
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Yeah, I think this is more a display of gross hypocrisy and opportunism than it is a display of genuine desire for nuclear war.
September 15th, 2021, 22:10
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(September 15th, 2021, 19:50)Amicalola Wrote: Yeah, I think this is more a display of gross hypocrisy and opportunism than it is a display of genuine desire for nuclear war.
Don't forget that they're:
1) Pretending that 1/6 wasn't a scary act that Trump supported. So any sane reaction to 1/6 is obviously "being overly dramatic" or such.
2) Absolutely never going to admit that Trump was a madman.
Also important:
It's not entirely clear exactly what Milley did in the "let's go over the nuclear launch process" meeting, because he might/might not have been within his authority depending on the details (like whether he actually said a launch order had to go through him, which is not accurate under the law but would be consistent with how the Secretary of Defense acted in 1974 before Nixon resigned). Similarly, him calling his counterpart in China could have been above-board or not, depending on the details that we don't really have.
However, I think this (and Pence calling the National Guard into the Capitol on 1/6 - normally the VP has no authority but would be Acting Pres if the 25th had been invoked) show that they obviously should have used the 25th Amendment but clearly they decided that they couldn't follow legal channels in the moment. Effectively, Trump was unable to DO Commander-In-Chief things between 1/6 and 1/20, because he couldn't be trusted to be a rational actor in that time frame.
My real takeaway from all of this is that the 25th needs some work (and I think it can be handled through laws determining who gets to invoke the 25th - Congress needs to decide what "the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide" means), because the legal uncertainties in Section 4 played a role in the 25th not being invoked.
September 16th, 2021, 01:16
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I didn't follow USAmerican politics closely but I didn't see any sign Trump was not fully in command of his faculties. What makes you assume he was not?
September 16th, 2021, 03:08
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Don't forget that the entire point of CoG (continuity of government) is to ensure that there is someone out there who has the authority to launch a nuclear strike; preferably as retaliation but that's not a condition. I can recommend reading Raven Rock for details.
September 16th, 2021, 06:33
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(September 16th, 2021, 01:16)civac2 Wrote: I didn't follow USAmerican politics closely but I didn't see any sign Trump was not fully in command of his faculties. What makes you assume he was not?
He was giddy on 1/6 that his followers had taken the US Capitol. Anyone trying to tell him that he couldn't steal the election was sending him into a rage. This wasn't about dementia, this was "the ex-President is going to go out swinging like a dictator being pushed out the door might try to do."
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