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Mardoc Wrote:I certainly did! The operative question is, were you also surprised?
 Yes I was surprised but I had an inkling that he might do that to me... Well, my shot at winning has dipped to below 5%, so it's time to dig in and see what I can make of this mess I've been handed. The "surprise" was supposed to be stabbing Rowain a bit earlier than planned - had a chat with Uberfish for a bit this afternoon... I was slightly nervous about it, but I thought he would stick with the deal. Me going into Marseilles instead of him was the deal-breaker though for him as it made Brest seem a liiiiittle too open for him. So we'll see what happens. I've got some serious work to do.
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Also, good game to Nakor, and sorry things didn't go well between us. Nothing personal. 
Currently having a good-natured chat with Uberfish right now. I'm annoyed, but mostly at myself because I've had this nagging thought for a couple days that it could happen. It's well played by him though, so nicely done 
Still though, I don't think it was the wise decision yet. I don't think he can get to 18 as there's no one left that really trusts him... His only hope is a strong Germany-Austria alliance but that is definitely not in place right now. Ok, enough talk here. I have some serious emails to send. Time to work the phones and see if I can claw myself out of this. Wish me luck. 
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I'll grant you that Saint-Petersburg was extremely unlikely to fall this turn, but you were still potentially looking at getting three builds, why didn't you leave your three home centers open ?
Quote:Me going into Marseilles instead of him was the deal-breaker though for him
Yeah, I guess it was. In addition to leaving Brest wide open, it also meant that you were getting all the spoils this year and made his timing for the stab perfect since you'd also have to deal with an angered Italy, you'd just attacked Russia, and had left all diplomatic exchanges with Austria to Germany...
Apart from that, the German fleet build last year was a tad suspicious (with retrospect, the justification for it is kinda painfully honest ), and I guess I stand vindicated in my earlier assessment that the move from Brest to Gascony wasn't one to make lightly.
Now, fortunately for you, Germany's wasn't the only stab. Austria's stab means there's only one superpower in the making : Germany. And we know what that usually means in Diplomacy terms. Furthermore, Austria's move from Bohemia to Tyrol opens all sorts of questions. With a stab against Russia, why move West instead of East ? Could that be Germany trying to get Austria to move against Italy ? (And I'm still puzzled by the move to Albania : why not Serbia ??).
Grim, but interesting times, for sure...
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Alright, here's my stab at it with Rowain. It's a doozy, but I think it's about as well as I could've written:
scooter Wrote:Rowain,
Wellll, things have certainly changed drastically. Uberfish played me quite nicely, so here I am: -1 build, out of position, AND now you'll be quite unhappy with me given that I sent an army at Marseilles.
Quick recap: basically Uberfish poked me on chat this afternoon and pressed the point that we needed to stab you. He stressed that you've told him you don't trust me at all, so he said we needed to kill you now to prevent you from getting +2 builds and swapping sides to RA and bogging us down. Basically he insisted that EGI would never work, so we needed to cut you out now when the time was right. I bought it, and apparently it was all lies. Gotta give him credit for lying straight to me by chat. I honestly had no plans to move on Marseilles or anything like that until like 4pm this afternoon when we chatted (for timezone sake - that's 4 hours before the deadline). I swapped my orders and he had me. Such is life.
So where are we now? You probably no longer trust me, but that's understandable, and I have no delusions that make me think you'll trust me... But what now? If you stick with Germany and come at me, Germany wins that scenario... Look at the map - I can keep you out of England, but keeping Germany out will be much trickier. Put simply - Germany benefits WAY more than you in a dogpile to finish me off, and it will put him scary close to 18,, which is definitely not in your interest. I can guarantee you he has no interest in a shared victory with you... I'd forward chats but that feels cheap. To be transparent, I wasn't interested in shared victory either, but I'd happily sign on that dotted line now haha.
So here's what I'm offering. I want revenge. I'm willing to accept that I can't win, so I'm willing to do what I can to ensure that you do (it's always difficult to do as Italy anyways). I'm NOT going to throw the game to you or hand over territories unfairly, but if you turn on Germany and work with me, I'll do what I can to ensure that you win. That will be quite difficult, and it'll probably involve persuading Russia to do us some favors as well... But I can work on that. I've got a few ideas to make it happen, but it's pointless if you decide you're going to help Germany exterminate me... Which will result in you gaining Portugal maybe and Germany gaining Norway + English Isles, which is a big loss for you as he'll go to you next to get closer to 18.
So my proposal is really simple for you actually:
1) Move out of Spain into Lyons. This will prove to me that you won't threaten me. I'll move out of Portugal into Mao. Stabbing me here will net you 1 center and will ensure that Germany gets the rest from me, so it'll leave me pretty stuck.
2) Help me in the retaking of Brest with your Marseilles army. By "help me" I just mean agree to be willing to cut German support if I request it. This will probably mean moving to Burgundy in the Spring, which with my fleet in Mao will mean I can probably crack Brest in the fall with some luck. I can support you into Bur, but I'll have to consider the tactical situation, as that could likely get cut by Par/Bre. Ruhr will also play a role here... So it's tough to say what will happen exactly... If you're willing to help, we can hash out the details.
3) I will clear out of Iberia. I'll order Mao-Eng and Por-Mao. Eng will be used to cover London and Mao will be used to deal with Brest. I'll move far enough away that I can't do a thing to you, and holding Germany in check is *very* much in your interest...
-----------------------------
Ok I know this has gotten long, but since I started this email, I had a lengthy chat with Cyneheard (he's running Russia right now while Regoarrar is gone). He is strongly in favor of the formation of an ERI alliance. If we do not do this, it's probably 80%+ chance that either Germany or Austria win. I can't win, but both you and Russia still can. The 3 of us ally together, get through the first year... I survive this year (hopefully), you squeeze Lewwyn's west flank, and Russia gets its Sev situation figured out, and then after that we can start to do damage hopefully, while trying to pry Austria and Germany apart. Your thoughts?
Apologies for the length. Crazy turn indeed .
scooter
Also had a chat with Cyneheard. He's controlling Russia right now as Regoarrar is on vacation. What I wrote was true - he's strongly in favor of an ERI alliance... I'll try to summarize and/or clean up the chat with him before the end of the night and post it here.
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Also, call me crazy, but I'm strongly considering disbanding Liverpool. Going to sleep on it, and it'll depend on Rowain's response.
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Wyatan Wrote:I'll grant you that Saint-Petersburg was extremely unlikely to fall this turn, but you were still potentially looking at getting three builds, why didn't you leave your three home centers open ?
St. Petersburg was never going to fall... I ordered that for Uberfish's benefit. He was going to try to take Livonia, and me attacking Stp meant it would cut any support he made with it... So Russia would get out-muscled in Livonia. So yeah, taking Stp was never going to happen.
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (doing this because this following paragraph is important)
Another thing I haven't revealed yet... I I agreed to let Uberfish take Brest this year. It was a handover... The stab was that he was also supposed to let me into Marseilles. See, Marseilles was supposed to be his, but it was awkward... So we figured me owning Mar and him owning Bre made it equal and untangled our armies nicely.
So it should have been 1/1/1. I get 1 for Portugal (Mar/Bre break-even), Uberfish gets 1 for Brest, and Italy gets 1 for Spain (Spain would fall the following year). Obviously that didn't happen.
Quote:Apart from that, the German fleet build last year was a tad suspicious (with retrospect, the justification for it is kinda painfully honest ), and I guess I stand vindicated in my earlier assessment that the move from Brest to Gascony wasn't one to make lightly.
The Fleet Kiel build DID raise my suspicion meter just a little bit, but Uberfish genuinely was doing that to screw with Russia, and it WAS always going to the Baltic. I actually asked him about this via chat a bit ago and he reiterated that it was not meant towards me at all.
Quote:Now, fortunately for you, Germany's wasn't the only stab. Austria's stab means there's only one superpower in the making : Germany. And we know what that usually means in Diplomacy terms. Furthermore, Austria's move from Bohemia to Tyrol opens all sorts of questions. With a stab against Russia, why move West instead of East ? Could that be Germany trying to get Austria to move against Italy ? (And I'm still puzzled by the move to Albania : why not Serbia ??).
Germany has admitted by chat that he didn't have a clue what Austria was doing. Obviously that could be him trying to mislead me, but I think he's being honest on that one. Know one knows what the heck Lewwyn is doing, but he is playing quite well despite it.
Actually, Austria has a legitimate claim as super-power status right now... He's got Russia in an awkward position. In my talks with Cyneheard, I pushed the fear of Germany/Austria alliance, which would basically guarantee that one of them win... If we don't ally against them. So that's the hope now... To push an ERI alliance to counter-act Germany and Austria. We'll see if we can't get the wheels turning on this one. I have hope still.
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So what the heck is Turkey to do? With one single army, is she swamping the phones looking for vengeance on Russia or just kind of checked out?
As someone said in the lurker thread, it looks like it's 1942 all the sudden.
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If only it was real life and you could poke Russia from India, chain boats to convoy armies from Canada and Australia...
In Soviet Russia, Civilization Micros You!
"Right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must."
“I have never understood why it is "greed" to want to keep the money you have earned but not greed to want to take somebody else's money.”
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antisocialmunky Wrote:If only it was real life and you could poke Russia from India, chain boats to convoy armies from Canada and Australia...
In real life, at the end of the nineteenth century, it was the other way around. Russia, Japan, the United States and France all poking at Britain in the colonies to greater or lesser extents.
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Point was Britain had access to way more man power and resources than anyone else as well as the fleet to defend it.
It looks like Germany really is gunning for England now.
In Soviet Russia, Civilization Micros You!
"Right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must."
“I have never understood why it is "greed" to want to keep the money you have earned but not greed to want to take somebody else's money.”
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