[SPOILERS] Team BASTARD settles on deer.

[Mardoc]

There's too many! Why did I ever start analyzing our foes individually?

oh, right, to have an excuse to bump the thread on demand. Well, then.

Next, I'll go with The Black Sword, Gandhi of Native America. Spi/Phi, Fishing/Agri, Totem Pole/Dog Soldier.

TBS is another very good player. I think he'll be underestimated, though: two reasons. His first great game was FFH; although I'm convinced FFH skill translates, most of the BtS crowd doesn't read those games. Second - his next good game was PB13, where he did well despite the handicaps of a) having the empire driven by Jowy for the first 50ish turns, and b) having another strong newcomer as a neighbor (Dtay), who capitalized on a moment of weakness, then returned to finish the job right about when TBS had begun to recover the empire.

He's got decent tools to work with. Gandhi is probably the quintessential bulb-econ dude; he's got new improved Philosophical to produce many GPP with and Spiritual to unlock spec slots via buildings and civics. TBS has the patience to read the bulb lists and plot carefully. Seriously, the main issue with bulbing is that it requires careful plans to maximize bulb potential, which tie you to a gameplan and require you to invent one carefully first. But, well, TBS seems to have the chops to do that. Then of course Spi is good for other things too - saving time on the necessary revolts, allowing access to non mlitary civics in time of war, and making religious buildings a better deal.

On top, Native America gives him good tools to avoid needing to alter his plans too greatly. The Dog Soldier is excellent against anything melee, and doesn't require copper, which ought to deter thoughts of axe, impi, and similar rushes. The Totem Pole gives good XP to archery units, helping deter aggression after the Dog era ends. Neither will be super awesome, probably not good enough for him to want to rush someone else, but still, a nice boost in an era where you want one.

Fishing isn't the best tech to start with unless the mapmaker is generous, but Agri is usually good. And fishing can work out. So NA ought to be pretty good here. I'd expect a fairly normal start from TBS, no rushes or early wonders or religion chasing. Just solid building and scariness later. Maybe a faint chance of trying for henge, but realistically I expect that to go to someone with Myst and/or Ind.

All in all...another one I wish not to start next to That's getting to be a pretty long list. That said, TBS seems to be one of the friendlier neighbors. Not likely to harass you with the intent to come back in 50 turns and finish, and definitely not likely to invest in a losing war for the heck of it. If he does invade, it'll be once he's an era ahead of you and intends to finish the job. So I guess if I have to neighbor someone strong, he's a good pick.

[Ceiliazul]

You poor doomed lurkers. I'm starting to wonder how you can possibly keep up with the threads. 18 threads updated since this one did a mere 18 hours ago. And we don't even have the game to talk about yet!

IF there are any of you, anyway, beyond Commodore and Sullla.

There's at least 10 lurkers clocked in for duty so far. Yes it'll be pretty daunting!

[Mardoc]

There's at least 10 lurkers clocked in for duty so far. Yes it'll be pretty daunting!

Dang, RB's grown big!

Well, we need something to set us apart compared to the others. How about this: I will cheerfully listen to any and all accusations of whenever it seems fair. I guess that means once our decisions are well and truly irrevocable I'm under no delusion that we can win this; probably we're not even in the top half of the field. Playing mostly for the fun, and a bit for learning. I can't always speak for Brick, but I bet he feels the same way.

-----

Also, I need to analyze someone else. Let's go with WilliamLP next. Because his thread is close to the top, mainly

William is...well, he seems competent, especially at war. Pretty passive - he has a healthy appreciation for the defender's bonus and knows how to exploit it. But he seems to be primarily a builder - he wants to build his own land, and he doesn't really want to take other people's toys. Otherwise he'd have listened to Mindy more . But he pays close attention and hasn't been caught napping yet; invading him is a bad idea, I think. Would make a good neighbor as long as we judge correctly what he thinks is his.

I know Commodore, in particular, has no respect for William's dotmapping abilities, but WLP seems to be able to get enough from his land.

He's playing as Sitting Bull of Byzantium. Pro/Phi of Fishing/Myst, Cataphract/Hippodrome

Pro is good, as described earlier. Phi has potential. Fishing/Myst means he's a great risk to contend with us for Buddhism - Phi means building a shrine is easy for him and he's had experience with the power of a shrine in PB13. I *think* us being Financial will let us beat him in a race, but it's worth double checking once the game starts. Buddhism might be too cheap for the extra commerce to matter, in which case we'd have to decide if we're going to gamble that he doesn't try (or we win the coinflip) or if we ought to aim for Hindu instead. Wait and see, our terrain might not support a religion try anyway.

Cataphracts have been slightly nerfed, they're no longer a Cuir early. Still, an 11 Str knight is nothing to sneeze at, the Knight era seems to be generally a good time to fight and extra strength helps everything. I'm less concerned about this in WLP's hands, though - he seems unlikely to invade if a decent Power is maintained, UU or no UU. The Hippodrome is a nice building, 50 hammers for 2 happiness (assuming horses, but that seems safe to assume). Granted, happiness seems less a limit in these big games, but I'm sure he can find a use for it. Still, a pair of good uniques - almost enough to make up for the start techs . I'd rather have his stuff than ours.

I guess all in all I'd expect William to be more of a risk to steal shiny things out from under us than to steal cities. Moreso if we're not neighbors . I also don't think he's a risk to win the game. Maybe PB13 was an anomaly due to retep, but I feel like his passive nature was inherent. And you can't win one of these without taking at least one neighbor's land - 34 players might require 2-3 conquests. Just don't think William's playstyle will support that. But he might well be around at the end of the game, which is still an accomplishment.

[Mardoc]

So apparently I misread the thread, that was just William's original flavor civ. He ended up as FDR of Mongolia; Ind/Org of Keshik/Ger.

Need to keep track of the final list: http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid464706

I'll reanalyze WLP eventually. But he's probably not directly relevant to our gameplan anymore, at least not the first 10 turns.

Mysticism is our concern at the moment. Need to decide if we can snag a religion or if that'd just be a waste of our first few turns. Civs with Myst in BtS are:
India (N/A)
Celtia
HRE
Inca
Spain (yay!)
Byzantines
Aztecs
Maya
Arabia
Korea

RBMod removed Korea from the list, meaning the only opponents to worry about competing with are:

Celtia 24. Barry Lyndon/Hatsheput/Celts
HRE 21. darrelljs + Ichabod/Joao/Holy Roman Empire
Inca 27. Hashoosh/Stalin/Inca
Byzantines Queeg/Zara/Byzantium
Aztec 18. Old Harry + Fintourist/Victoria/Aztecs
Maya 9. Nakor/Darius/Maya
Arabia 8. Azza/Washington/Arabia

Still rather a lot. No one on the list seems conventionally strong enough that they won't try a gambit. Can we rule any out?

Barry: Don't know anything about him. Decent chance he's a smurf, as he seems to know RB customs pretty well for a newb, but he hasn't posted enough to really have evidence on that. Myst/Hunting might leave him free to wonder chase depending on his capital food, Hatshepsut as Spi/Cre has one trait pushing toward religion, one pushing away. No Fin or Fishing means his max beaker rate early should be 10 cpt/12 bpt after prereq bonus, barring Oasis or riverside dyes

Darrellibod Joao of HRE: decently strong, but not Krill level. Myst/Hunting again, Exp/Imp is the same as above for religion purposes. Except Cre won't negate half the reason for the religion.

Hashoosh Stalin of Inca: Don't know him well, seems decent though. Agg/Ind of Myst/Agri again can afford to go for religion, but has no help going there.

Queeg/Zara/Byzantium: Cre/Org of Fishing/Myst. Similar to us, although Cre does argue against religion. Can manage 11 cpt/13 bpt, though, as a non-Fin fisher

Old Harry + Fintourist/Victoria/Aztecs. Myst/Hunting, Fin/Imp, can manage probably only 10 cpt/12 bpt though, barring Oasis at cap. With Oasis they can tie us. And they're good enough that they might.

Nakor/Darius/Maya: Fin Org of Myst/Mining. Can possibly match our rate, with the right commerce tile at cap. It would hurt him even worse than us, though, since Fishing at least has the potential to be a food tech. I think he won't try.

Azza/Washington/Arabia Exp/Cha of Myst/Wheel. Can't match our rate, start techs again make religion super expensive. Don't think it's likely.

So...it comes back to depending on what the capital gives us. Only two Fin/Myst opponents, and them without Fishing, means we can outresearch anyone - assuming lake or coast at the capital and no Oasis/gold at the cap. We need a Fish, though.

Also, we can only outresearch by a bit - our net bpt can be 14, next best is 13, most of the rest can manage 12 only. To guarantee being a turn ahead of a 12 bpt civ, we need religion to have a cost in one of the following ranges: 13-14, 25-28, 37-42, 49-56, 61-70, 73+

To guarantee being a turn ahead of a 13 bpt civ, it needs to fall in one of the following: 14, 27-28, 40-42, 53-56, 66-70, 79-84, 92-98, 105-112, 118-126, 131-140, 144-154, 157-168, 170+

So, Brick, if you get to log in before I do, I'd really really like to know the following:
Screenshot of our starting area
Cost of Buddhism (Meditation) (as listed in tech screen)
Cost of Hinduism (Polytheism)

That'll make the religion thing a lot easier to decide. Ideally Buddhism turns out to fall in one of our guaranteeable ranges. But it'll be good to *know*

[Ceiliazul]

pretty hefty analysis Mardoc, good luck!

[Mardoc]

pretty hefty analysis Mardoc, good luck!

Thanks!

I did leave out psychology. Maybe some of these potential foes decide not to gamble.

Of course my fear here is that it's a detailed analysis for the wrong goal, or that I left out an important factor. You can tell me all about that in a couple weeks, right?

I was informed that I missed noticing Arabia's start tech change - Myst/Agri now. Which makes them slightly more threatening, potentially having their food tech arranged already, but at least they're still in the max 12 bpt boat.

Anyway, chatted (briefly) with Brick, he's swamped, so odds are I don't get to know anything concrete about our religious chances until I'm home from work tonight.

[Mardoc]

I don't know why I thought Commodore would be mean. This looks like exactly what I wanted. Whether that's what I should have wanted...well, we'll see.

Looks like settle in place, start a workboat, start researching a religion (working a lake tile), send the scout...um, toward the wheat? Most likely resource we want to share, and I'd be shocked to find something worth moving the capital for.




So, how much do our religious options cost?






138 is right inside one of our guaranteed ranges, I believe. Should take us 10 turns, while the next best techer requires 11 turns. So it looks like Buddhism is a go!

I won't do anything for the moment, though. Want to give the busy Brick a chance to comment, and it looks like T0 is going to take a while anyway while we work out the kinks.

[BRickAstley]

Scouting looks fine too.

[Mardoc]

Ok, played T0 again. Maybe it'll even last this time.

I feel like we discussed our city naming scheme in the same conversation that I forgot about for our team name. But I can't remember that either, so I put in a placeholder that isn't toooo horrible.




And I scouted a bit. Decided to start south rather than east so we can go circular around the cap. Didn't find anything awesome, but we're definitely going to have the potential for a lot of fishing villages down the line. Might be handy with the interminable wait until we get other food techs, I suppose.

[Mardoc]

Good news! The demos suggest we're in 2nd place GNP, only short of the Lurkin' civ. That means, I think, that no one else has both a three-commerce tile and working on a tech with a prereq - which in turn means Buddhism is ours. Barring any RNG shenanigans with events.

Also, we're the best real civ in GNP...and we're below the average




I finally remembered what we'd agreed on as our naming scheme. All hail Friend Computer! Although maybe the cap should be Alpha Complex instead?



And...I found our obvious second city site! 2S of the crabs, natch.




oh, yeah, and also a hut. And lots of little fishes, and some good Hunting resources if we want to build a worker at some point

Scout's gonna hit the hut, then go counterclockwise back around the cap.