[Spoilers] AT (Charlie/Mongolia) has a thread. In which he shall post.

[AutomatedTeller]

Predictions as to who keeps and who repicks:

Ichabod and Retep - Liz is good, france is good. keep
Plako - Spi and Ind are still good and Ottomans are fine. He'll keep
Barteq - no idea who he is, he'll repick, since his UB duplicates his trait
Grimace - I think will keep, though sac altar is kind of nerfed
DTay - No idea - Imp and Ind are ok, Sumeria is nice. I dunno - I'll say keep.
Serdoa - Keep. Wang got a buff and England is ok.
Krill - clearly keeping
REM - I'll guess he keeps.
Adreinter - Will keep - Ragnar is good, samurai get a boost from aggressive
Commodore - I dunno - might switch. COmmodore's a tough read sometimes.
Donovan Zoi - This is a strong combo - he'll stay
TheWannabe - Will stay. Good traits, still a good UU.
AT - I'm staying
Elkad - I hope stays - agg is a good combo for the new american UB and the UU is timely. Stay
CheaterHater - no real synergy in traits/UB - I'm going to say switch
Molach - stay - Molach is not a war monger (he sat next to me all game in PB 18 with an aggressive civ and never really made a move , though he threatened) Willem is a good builder leader, though celts are a bad builder civ. They would be tough to attack, though.
HAK - stay. BGN did very well in PB 18 with russia and justinian is a fine leader.
Borsche - guessing will switch - Vikings got a bit of a nerf, though Hannibal is good
Yuri - stay. A stronger combo than it looks - saladin gives 1/2 walls, which is a prereq to the citadel.
NyselsStandish - I think will switch - Korea really isn't special and Frederick I don't think is great
Tasunke - Switch - Pacal is nice, persia isn't great in multi, because humans wont defend with archers but with spears
Gavagai - should switch - Arabida still isn't great.
vaon aldercruet & taotao - will switch - dike is overrated as a UB and neither UB nor UU help you stay alive in teh early game.

So, I think I found 5 teams that will switch and the rest will stay. I predict that my ability to predict this will be indicative of my results in this game!!

So, how did I do? Well, 13 people switched, so not so great.

Who did I get right?

Me, Krill, Donovan Zvoi, Elkad, Moloch all stayed when I predicted they would.

Borsch, taskunke, and the von taotao team stayed when I predicted they would switch.

Icatep, plako, REM, Grimace , adrienter, the wannabee, HAK and yuri switched when I thought they would stay.

CheaterHater, Barteq, NylesStandish, Gavagai and Commodore swtiched when I thought they would. (well, Commodore I wavered on). So, I got 10 out of 22 right or about 50%. (technically, 11 out of 23, but I cna't really count me )

Go me!!

I'll do some sandboxing this weekend. I have some stragetic decisions to think about, if not actually make.

[AutomatedTeller]

ok - who switches in round II?

Commodore - sury/ottomans - he's already changed his thread title, so he stays
CH - Wash/Inca - that's a strong combo - charismatic got a serious boost with the colloseum giving 1 extra XP. Exp isn't as good as it way, but cheap workers and workboats and a ton of cheap buildings is nothing to sneeze at.
Plako - pericles/germany - I think he's switching. Germany's just not that great and that combo doesn't get out to fast starts.
Grimace - Boudica/Japan - I think keep - Cha/Agg may be the best war combo in the game and it got a boost now. His neighbors could get hit with a stack of WII axes out of nowhere very early. I dunno him at all, but that's a strong war combo. Actually, thinking about, Boudica of celtia would be a nasty combo - a bunch of GIII/CR 1 swords that retreat would do a lot of damage...
REM - Julius of Russia - I dunno - I suspect keep - not a great start, but forges are great and org gets better as the game goes.
TheWannabee - Ramesses/France - Should keep - decent traits, and there aren't many fin leaders left. I'll say keep
HAK - alex/maya, Phi/Agg - I dunno - trait combo don't go well and don't go great with the UB/UU. UB is a defensive unit and agg is a war mongerer trait. Ballcourt is nice, but less nice for a non-cha civ. I think he'll switch. If this was pericles of maya or alex of rome, I'd say stay.
yuri - Justin/Khmer - I think the traits are ok, and the civ is mediocre at best. Though, I think Ballista's keep their 8 str - I'm going to say switch
NYles - Isabellla/aztecs - I expect a switch - jag is ok, not great, sac altar is nerfed with the slavery nerf, and the traits don't really mesh.
gavagi - roosevelt/mali. Well, that's a keeper. a nice builder set of traits and a builder civ that no one is going to mess with through the classical age. With actual synergy of the mint/ind.
bartek - Frederick/Byzantium. Oh, the call of the phracts!! I dunno - I don't know that there is a better combo out there, so I'm going to say stay. It's not the best, but it's not the worst.

So, that's 3 switches and 10 keeps, one of whom has kind of flaunted it.

[AutomatedTeller]

Here's a question to pass the time while we wait for screenies of our start:



Say you are the Mongols in this theoretical situation. you have wheel and hunting and you just finished pasturing the sheep and you want to go pasture the cow.

but you want to be as efficient as possible.

Is it best to:

1) Go to B immediately, and then next turn go to the cow and start pasturing?
or
2) go to A and road 1 turn. next turn, go to B and road 1 turn. next turn, go to the cow and pasture.

I generally do the 1st, under the concept that the food is more important... but I also like to not just move a worker if I can help it. sometimes I can't, of course. The road at B seems important, too.

[AutomatedTeller]

Some thoughts:

Based on what food source(s) I get, i could get a settler out on about turn 27 (12 for the worker, 7 for a warrior or maybe a 2nd scout - scouts probably survive animals better than warriors) and then 8 or 9 for a settler at size 2. I dunno if an expansive civ can beat that - obviously, joao could. Pig, wet corn or wheat and deer in forest get me an 8 turn settler, dry corn or wet rice get me a 9 turn settler.

I dunno if that's the right play, though - size 3 gives me a 7 turn settler and size 4 can give me 5 turn settlers. It may make more sense long-term to grow up the granary delay the first settler a little - or, maybe it's better to get the first settler out fast and then grow. I should be able to get mining, BW, agri and pottery done before the first settler settles, so it can build a granary right off.

My basic plan for the game before I see anything is:

Expand until the reasonable land is taken. I'll plan on... well, not pink-dotting, but getting more than my fair share from someone. That, of course, depends on no one doing that to me

HA conquer someone. Continue conquest.

I'm debating following the aesthetics line to A) get the music artist and B) bulb philo for a later shrine, the end goal being to get to nationalism as soon as I can for both Taj an early draft city. With a settled GG, rax, ger, colloseum and, say, theology, I can draft CR II swords or maces, 1 a turn, which will make for a very difficult to beat offensive force.

Wonders I'd like:

Henge would be nice, but hard to get without selling out expansion. Henge is 2 settlers for me. That said, maybe with a really fast initial settler, it's doable.
Mids would always be awesome, but again, that's a lot of settlers. Granted, Krovice got it turn 100 after all their expansion, so who knows?
Oracle would be nice, but it seems out of the way. Early religions are a non-starter for me with 23 civs and not starting with mysticism. Oracle could get me CoL and that's a pre-req for Nationalism, but it's not on the path to the wonder I really want, which is:

Statue of Zeus. I think I talked about this before, but with the Ger, Rax and this, I can unlock HE without ever fighting a battle. Granted, i might be able to do the same thing with barb fighting, but getting 11 xp mounted units and 9 xp melee units is very nice and flexible.

MoM will be useful, especially if I'm able to pick up Taj - I'm not sure I can do that, but it would be very useful to me.

All that is completely dependent on map and opponents and how many mistakes I make along the way. I'm sure I'll make quite a few

[AutomatedTeller]

More musings while we wait.

I don't really much know how to rate traits - I think the balance mod does a pretty good job making the traits even. I came up with a couple of simple ranking systems based on effect at certain parts of the game.

First, by era:

The idea here is to give an idea of about how much a trait affects a given tech era. For instance, Fin has no effect in the ancient era, because that’s basically over by the time the first cottages get to making 3 commerce. Sure, gem/fur/gold/silver settlements will have an effect, but it’s not large enough to matter. Also, I ignored modern and future eras, since there’s not much to say about them – it’s more dependent on style and size of empires than any particular trait.



You can obviously argue over the actual numbers, but it shows two things to me: A) all the traits are pretty close and B) I think that Org is clearly better than Charismatic, Creative and Philosophical.

Second, by phase:

The idea is to break down the game into 5 phases – expansion, consolidation, early mid game, late mid game and end game. In a general game, you won’t get many wars in the expansion or consolidation phase and if you do, you’ve probably lost. I can’t think of anyone from PB 18 who fought early and ended up on high on the leaderboard. In the mid game, you get wars of conquest – I picked early and late because this is probably the longest part of game – roughly the late classical through early industrial and it seemed reasonable to break it down. End game there are few wars – mainly, the ones that happen serve a specific interest, as opposed to conquest.



This, once again, shows org to be the strongest and creative to be the weakest.

If you combine these (or average them), you get a ranking like this:

1. Organized
2. Spiritual
3. Imperialistic
4. Protective
5. Aggressive
5. Expansionist
5. Financial
8. Industrious
9. Philosophical
10. Charismatic
11. Creative

Which I’m sure is not at all influenced by my having imperialistic and protective

I dunno if I completely believe these rankings - the numbers make Org a clear winner and Creative a clear loser and I think that overstates the case - the free border pops are probably more important than I give them early - but really, it's border pops and cheap buildings that you won't build everywhere.

[AutomatedTeller]

ok - who switches in round II?

Commodore - sury/ottomans - he's already changed his thread title, so he stays
CH - Wash/Inca - that's a strong combo - charismatic got a serious boost with the colloseum giving 1 extra XP. Exp isn't as good as it way, but cheap workers and workboats and a ton of cheap buildings is nothing to sneeze at.
Plako - pericles/germany - I think he's switching. Germany's just not that great and that combo doesn't get out to fast starts.
Grimace - Boudica/Japan - I think keep - Cha/Agg may be the best war combo in the game and it got a boost now. His neighbors could get hit with a stack of WII axes out of nowhere very early. I dunno him at all, but that's a strong war combo. Actually, thinking about, Boudica of celtia would be a nasty combo - a bunch of GIII/CR 1 swords that retreat would do a lot of damage...
REM - Julius of Russia - I dunno - I suspect keep - not a great start, but forges are great and org gets better as the game goes.
TheWannabee - Ramesses/France - Should keep - decent traits, and there aren't many fin leaders left. I'll say keep
HAK - alex/maya, Phi/Agg - I dunno - trait combo don't go well and don't go great with the UB/UU. UB is a defensive unit and agg is a war mongerer trait. Ballcourt is nice, but less nice for a non-cha civ. I think he'll switch. If this was pericles of maya or alex of rome, I'd say stay.
yuri - Justin/Khmer - I think the traits are ok, and the civ is mediocre at best. Though, I think Ballista's keep their 8 str - I'm going to say switch
NYles - Isabellla/aztecs - I expect a switch - jag is ok, not great, sac altar is nerfed with the slavery nerf, and the traits don't really mesh.
gavagi - roosevelt/mali. Well, that's a keeper. a nice builder set of traits and a builder civ that no one is going to mess with through the classical age. With actual synergy of the mint/ind.
bartek - Frederick/Byzantium. Oh, the call of the phracts!! I dunno - I don't know that there is a better combo out there, so I'm going to say stay. It's not the best, but it's not the worst.

So, that's 3 switches and 10 keeps, one of whom has kind of flaunted it.

So, barteq, adrienter, THeWannabe and NylesStandish switched. I had one of those switching and 3 staying (technically, i didn't give an opinion on adrienter, but I only picked three to switch. So, I had 5 wrong (3 switched when I said they wouldn't and 2 stayed when I thought they would switch) - 8 out of 13 is better than the first round!! Based on this, I'm 60+% likely to win!!

[AutomatedTeller]

Boy, I want this to start

I was going to do an opponent analysis, but there's a lot of them, and most of them I know nothing about.

So, I'll leave it at this:

dtay, Krill, Serdoa and Plako are the favorites to win. You can maybe put Commodore in that group.

Ichatep (Rebod?), Yuri, Molach, HAK, CheaterHater and Gavagai are veterans who probably have no shot. Retep was a dedlurker for the OldHumanTourist team and Ichabod played, but not very seriously in PB18.

I don't know most of the rest, so I'll assume that they are newbies who have no shot.

Me? Well, I have a chance to finish reasonably well, because you figure one of the top guys will get hosed. But I have no real chance to win. I'm just hoping to be relevant at the end.

How will it actually work out? if you assume that you can't win a game this big by domination (you'd need to take over the land of 14 civs and no one did more than 3 or 4 in PB 18) or conquest, it will end by space, culture or concession. My guess is that the winner eats 2 or 3 players and each of the survivors eat at least one. I think Moloch was the only one in 18 who survived and didn't conquer an opponent. so, my guess is that maybe 6-8 players survive. If you assume all 5 of the best guys, then maybe 1 of the new people and 2-3 of the RB veterans will make it. might be fewer - this map is supposed to by toroidal, so no one gets a backline.

My guess? Plako by SS, sometime around turn 240.

[GermanJoey]

Hi AT. Just sent the map off to the lurkers again, hopefully we'll get started soon.

Interesting Trait analysis. I don't necessarily agree with all of it, BUT, I do agree that ranking the traits by era is definitely the way to go. Are your rankings in consideration of the recent buffs to Cha/Cre/Fin that are in RtR 3.0.0.1? What's your scores of them before/after their changes?

[BRickAstley]

Here is the starting BFC sandbox for you to look at and start planning, if you choose to do so. This accurately represents what the starting BFC will look like when you load into the game. The file has any strategic resources stripped out (since you would not know those on turn 0).

We reserve the right to make any changes to the BFC, but this is at least very close to what it will look like in game, so should be dependable for planning purposes.

No screenshot for the thread too because that's just time consuming right now for me to go take a picture of each one too.

Link to the starting sandbox: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4491...wordWBSave

[AutomatedTeller]

This was with 3.0.0.1.

I should be clear that I don't think that Charismatic and Creative are bad or anything. Any rating system that doesn't rate everything even will come up with lesser or greater. There isn't a charismatic/creative civ leader, but I'd play one if there was. But plako had a chance to throw back Pericles and he did not and he's a lot better than I am

A lot of it has to do with synergy, too - rating traits in a vacuum is interesting, but really, the only thing that counts is two traits and a civ, since if you had fin/nothing in BtS, you would be at a disadvantage. For instance, while I ranked Org and Spi as the best, I would think org would synergize better with an expansion trait and spiritual with philosophical or aggressive - something where you can switch civics to further boost your traits.

As for those 3 specifically:

I think Fin is pretty heavily nerfed in 3.0.0.1, compared to base BtS. Not getting the boost on water tiles is huge. And waiting 30 turns for the boost for non-river cottages is a long time, too. And, oddly, I think the change to not allow villages and towns to be plowed under is a nerf, too, because it makes those improvements less flexible. Though, that's minor, since few people will plow under cottages. I guess it's better than what we used in PB 18 (2.0.7.6?) because it works on rivers, but it's still not what it was. Which is good, because it used to be insane.

Charismatic is maybe under valued - being able to make 2 promo land units out of the box is pretty huge, particularly with seige. Accuracy cats can make a huge difference in war and the extra happy is nice when you start going vertical. But it's a null trait in expansion and probably only affects some of your cities in the early midgame. The boost to get 2 promo melee and seige with colloseums is huge, though. I expect more medieval wars with accuracy cats bringing down walls quickly in this game.

Creative is, I think, relatively weak. I think it's strongest trait is early border pops, but even that becomes less important later, as later cities have multiple ways to pop borders. Libraries are great, but you'll build them in 1/2 your cities, maybe. Theaters go down enough to build Globe. That said, it's synergy with phil is kind of amazing - plako has a strong leader in Pericles that looks weak with my rankings... which just goes to show how useful arbitrary rankings are

Overall, though, this is just an exercise in mental masturbation, spending time until we get the save.