Gavagai in Wonderland

[BaII]

Ahhh thanks for the correction but yes thanks for the explanation

[Gavagai]

Tier levels!

All players in this game fall rather neatly into 4 tiers:

1) Gavagai and Commodore. We both are very experienced players who consistently demonstrated very good performance. Are most likely to win by far. Between us two a direct comparison is difficult because we have different strengths and weaknesses. I believe I am a much better strategist than Commodore but Commodore is better at military tactics, in ancient warfare especially. I think I am better overall but only marginally.

2) Alhazard and Chumchu. The only Al's game I remember is a gimmicky Pitboss with unbalanced starts in which we both participated. He performed poorly but this hardly means anything: the setup was weird and, IIRC, he fall victim to 2metra's crazy gambit. In respect to chumchu, I don't remember him playing solo at all, though he dedlurked a number of games. They both have lurked the forum extensively and deserve the benefit of the doubt. Also they have combos which can be potentially very powerful in the right circumstances. Those two can pull off a surprise victory. I would rate the probability to win for chumchu higher because his combo is better.

3) Irismono/GKC and RegentMan. Two complete unknowns. They could be bright guys with great potential and some solid experience but I do not think that at these days one can be competitive in civ multiplayer without at least reading RB. Their picks were already suboptimal. They can outperform expectations but I do not see any of them winning. I would rate Irismono/GKC slightly higher because there are two people in this team.

4) Donovan Zoi and Superdeath. Two very well known quantities, not incompetent but with some fatal flaws in their skillsets. No chance of victory. Of those two I will rate SD higher becuase he typically performs better and has a stronger combo.

To recap:
1. Gavagai
2. Commodore
3. Chumchu
4. Alhazard
5. Irismono/GKC
6. RegentMan
7. Superdeath
8. Donovan Zoi

Probability of victory before T0 (before starting positions are distributed).
Gavagai - 0.45
Commodore - 0.4
Chumchu - 0.1
Alhazard - 0.05

[Gavagai]

Two technical comments:

1) I would never be able to estimate a T0 probability of victory, so I kindly ask lurkers to do it in their thread
2) After such a conceited post it would only serve well to get eliminated by Superdeath in the ancient age.

[Gavagai]

[Gavagai]

1) Inland start. A slight decrease in the probability of winning, buys a stronger capital for less security.
2) My first instinct is to move the capital 1SE. I could have moved the warrior there immediately for more info but if Krill says to hold off the game, I'll hold off the game. It seems to give me more river tiles and faster access to the Wheat.
3) Techpath most probably will be Agri -> Bronze -> The Wheel -> Pottery and only then AH. The sheep will be mined meanwhile and the capital is kept at size 2-3. The price I pay for taking a fishing civ...

[Gavagai]

[Gavagai]

I didn't do anything after moving the warrior because I immediately have a major puzzle on hand. Should I move the settler 1SE?
Pros:
- No wasted turns on improving the Wheat, it will be available on the same turn as if SIP
- A vastly superior capital long-term
Cons:
- I risk losing food resources in the fog to NW (not a big deal, the capital will have enough food)
- I risk orphaning seafood as I am blocking a number of potential coastal city sites
- Most importantly, I can run into severe health problems, even in the short term already. 6 floods and only 4 forests in BFC, ouch.
Interesting start, overall, a lot to think about!

[Gavagai]

Longer term the capital is at risk to be severely limited by health. I cannot build a Harbour here but I need to grow the capital tall in order to make use of its potential.

[Gavagai]

I think I'll settle in place. The capital will still be good and it will free up a place for a potential city 2S from warrior which can be very strong if there is seafood.

[Gavagai]