Brexit Political Discussion Thread

[darrelljs]

So much for my theory that Theresa May was bungling Brexit on purpose as a backdoor path to remaining in the EU.

Darrell

[Krill]

Well, the problem is the vote of no confidence. The timing is just fucked now. And Boris' plan seems to be giving Parliament nothing to vote on, so they have nothing to amend to take control of parliamentary business to create a law that makes no deal unlawful. But maybe there is some other mechanism...there has been take of a humble address but that do anything. Corbyn hasn't got a hope in hell of winning a GE, of getting a majority IMO.

Maybe the Lib Dems could form a minority coalition government just to revoke article 50 but only if the a dozen or so Tories supported it, plus a stupendous amount of Labour MPs. A good chunk of Labour MPs and a few Tories might support that rather than Corbyn. The SNP would probably agree and in the knowledge it would give them what they wanted then the government would collapse. But that's just wishful thinking. Boris has to lose a VNC first.

[Gustaran]

So from what I've read in the German media, Johnson has now changed the cabinet to include strong Brexit supporters only. The last I heard was he wanted to renegotiate the Brexit deal (which the EU refused right away) or accept a hard Brexit in October.

So is he really willing to to go through with a hard Brexit?

[MJW (ya that one)]

May's deal is not an option because Ireland would veto everything to encourage reunification. And even through the Catholic vote will soon surpass the Protestant vote in NI waiting for reunification isn't an option because 1/3 of Catholics are Unionists, so the Protestant demographic has 3x times the electoral impact and judgement day happens at 75% instead of 50%. So if the EU doesn't renegotiate it's no deal or revoke. Tories would get ****ed by the Brexit Party if they make revoke happen so it's no deal. An added benefit is the Tories would be able to compact with Brexit party and lean on the Remain vote being split for an easy win.

[ipecac]

So is he really willing to to go through with a hard Brexit?

If he's not willing to walk away, how can he expect to make a good deal?

[Mr. Cairo]

So is he really willing to to go through with a hard Brexit?

If he's not willing to walk away, how can he expect to make a good deal?

He's not going to make a good deal either way. Or rather, he's not going to get a deal he considers good. Unlike the UK, the EU hasn't been politically paralyzed for the last couple of years and is much better prepared for no deal than the UK. If no deal is the price to pay for maintaining the integrity of the Union, the EU will pay it.

[darrelljs]

Yeah its not like he's buying a used car. This is a divorce settlement and walking away means you get nothing.

Darrell

[Krill]

Not quite. It's closer to alimony to the EU.

[ipecac]

What was the latest figure? 40 billion?

[Krill]

33 because some of the divorce bill is what we are paying now anyway, just to stay in the EU until November.