[SPOILER] Nobody's Business But The Turks

[superjm]

Did some preliminary simming and while it's clear I need to wait one more turn to see what's in the remaining fog in my capital before committing to anything, here are some early conclusions:

- Pottery first is good, but there are some complications. First off is the fact that I don't actually have a visible plains hill forest in my cap. That hill below my planned settling spot is a Desert, so no three-hammer tiles for a quicker granary build so it's a tad delayed. Still pretty quick though and it does have the benefit of very quickly getting my cottages to mature.
- The problem here is that the first settler comes quite late, T39 by my reckoning, though I can't guarantee I took the most optimal route there. I do end up having all my forests to chop for a second settler but that leads to the second problem: getting the early cottages means I could only squeeze in one road toward the gems, which is kinda bad in this case I found cause I'm literally surrounded by hills. So I lose a bunch of worker turns and potential settler travel time depending on which way I go.
-Mining->BW with double worker start (single worker->growth->worker is way too slow) branches into two potential paths. First is farming both the Rice and one of the flood plains immediately, the second is just farming the Rice and spending the rest of the time roading under forests. Either way the first settler comes at T34 after growing to size 3 and hard building it+immediate chops when BW comes in, much faster than the Pottery first path, and I can revolt to Slavery while the settler is on route. I can then go into another settler with more chops and have it done in time for when Pottery comes
-Farming FP vs not farming FP is tricky. On one hand, it's going to be replaced by a cottage soon so those worker turns are sort of wasted, but on the other hand having that one extra food allows me to reach size 3 one turn sooner and makes the subsequent settler builds slightly faster, which matters since in the not-farm case, the second settler is slightly delayed.
-That desert forested hill is a bit of a thorn in my side. It takes an extra turn both to road AND to chop. I just hope the forest in the fog isn't also a desert tile or it'll just make things trickier.
-Another potential problem with all this: health. Even off fresh water my health is fine right up until the forests go down, in which case simply being as size 4 makes me unhealthy. This could present a problem in the pottery first path simply because after the initial growth spurt I might not actually be able to work all my cottages without losing food. This can be mitigated just by hooking up the Rice and getting it's +2 health with the granary, but, as you can see from the start, doing so would be incredibly inconvenient considering where all of my workers will be futzing around during this whole start. The one exception here is the Mining->BW without farming the FP. Not farming the FP leaves me enough time to immediately connect the rice through those northern hills and get all the other roads down before BW comes in, cutting off the health problem before it ever really starts. Boy am I glad I am EXP

So all things considered,

POTTERY FIRST
Pros:
-Fast granary and cottages
-Better economic setup for after the initial start
-Plenty of growth to immediately utilize with the whip once Slavery comes in.

Cons:
-First settler is delayed
-Movement is greatly inhibited because of lack of roads
-No time to connect Rice so unhealth starts creeping up once forests are gone.

MINING->BW
Pros:
-Roads are down quickly
-Double worker start
-Much faster burst start since the chops come in a lot sooner.
-Have enough time to mine the gems and a hill, granted should only be working those sparingly when they're clearly the best option.

Cons:
-Cottages don't even get started until around T40ish, and that may even be with only one worker depending on how much immediate attention the second and third cities need.
-Slow capital growth to start.
-The moment when Pottery comes in is a little tricky, as I may be forced to double 1-pop the settler and the granary and grow back from size 1 (manipulating the food box along the way of course) or perhaps wait a bit to finish the second settler manually and just 1-pop the granary, not sure which would be better.

With all that said, I can't really decide on anything until at least the next turn because I don't even know my remaining capital tiles yet, to say nothing of my immediate surroundings which would inform my decision of just how quickly I want to get my settlers out.

[Krill]

I am currently unspoiled so I can give you feedback. Do you want me to remain so for the foreseeable future?

[superjm]

It's up to you. I certainly would appreciate a dedlurker if you're willing, especially one of your skill.

On the other hand, with such a large game I could see following it on the outside being a ton of fun (or a total bother, depends on the person I guess ) so I'm fine either way.

[Krill]

Well, I'll hang around for now. I've always enjoyed nailing down the starting micro.

If you go Pottery first, when does BW finish?

[superjm]

EOT36, then after revolting to Slavery and one turn of production the settler finishes EOT39. Experimenting a bit more I can squeeze in a worker with the forest chops which can go road the Rice or do something else before 2 popping another settler on EOT45.

Getting to BW EOT35 might be possible if I made an oversight in the earlier micro. Nevermind, confused this with another sim

EDIT - Also the settler comes out EOT38, not 39.

This is harder to keep track of than one would think.

[Krill]

Tech is painful, but that's another reason Pottery first makes sense.

I'd also question chopping early. Why do it if unhealthiness is that hard? Save the worker turns. Build the roads and cottages. Why can't you grow to size 6 before BW and already have 10 hammers invested the turn of the revolt? And don't focus on the turn the settler is completed, it's meaningless. Focus on the turn the second city is settled, and when it is connected to the capital.

Worker1 completes eot10, right? Even if stuck with a 1/2 tile a granary should complete eot18 and growth@2 eot22 with 10 food saved.

[Krill]

Also, a comment on your scouting. You moved your settler 1S. This was inherently worse than moving 1SE - W, which would show if any tiles over to the east are hills or peaks.

[superjm]

I'd also question chopping early. Why do it if unhealthiness is that hard? Save the worker turns. Build the roads and cottages.

Well the idea in the pottery first route is to chop out the third worker immediately so it can go hook up the Rice. With the Rice unhealthiness hits at size 6 which is a lot more manageable and should tide me over until I inevitably grab more health resources in the fog. And the remaining chops would help along 2-popping the second settler.

I did end up redoing the micro a bit and managed to get BW down to EOT35 (though that doesn't actually matter, see below) while holding off on building the last FP cottage in lieu of more roads to help along the settler/make chopping easier. So that's becoming a more appealing option.

Why can't you grow to size 6 before BW and already have 10 hammers invested the turn of the revolt? And don't focus on the turn the settler is completed, it's meaningless.

Yeah I made a mistake looking at my save file. I reach pop 6 EOT35, so the settler would always come out three turns later on EOT38.

And don't focus on the turn the settler is completed, it's meaningless. Focus on the turn the second city is settled, and when it is connected to the capital.

This is true though. This is where I need more intel, as if I send my first settler east then the relative time the settler comes out compared to different builds is the same as when its settled, whereas if I go west or south it will depend on how my roads pan out.

Worker1 completes eot10, right? Even if stuck with a 1/2 tile a granary should complete eot18 and growth@2 eot22 with 10 food saved.

Pottery doesn't come until EOT13 so that's sadly not possible. A size 1 granary does sound hella nice, not gonna lie

Also, a comment on your scouting. You moved your settler 1S. This was inherently worse than moving 1SE - W, which would show if any tiles over to the east are hills or peaks.

Ouch, even at the start of the game I make silly oversights like that. I gotta remember this is an MP game, I have to make at least a token effort to avoid my casual SP habits

[Krill]

Have you actually moved the settler? There is an argument to move the settler 2SE, and then on T1 moving the warrior 1SE and then decide on capital location.

A lack of a 3 hammer tile isn't that much of an issue tbh. Still growth eot17, then granary eot22, avoid growth t23, and growth@3 eot24 with food box 16/26, and that is without optimization. Mining is something like eot23 right? So you could reach size 5 eot28, right? Probably better to reach size 4 then work rice/gems/forest hill/plains hill mine, but growing to size 5 delays the second worker 2 turns but allows continued cottaged usage.

That would give worker2 eot32, growth@6 eot34, right? T35 you could have 3 to cottages, rice and a mined plains river hill, and with no forests chopped you would be healthy, so settler t35 is at 12/100, revolt t36, whip t37? Overflow 12 hammers and dump into worker3 for 31/60 eot38.

TBH, I wouldn't chop the forests, expand to fast and you'll hit a costs explosion that destroys your tech rate. Delay the chops a bit, until rice and another health res is improved imo.

Do you have a sim you could share please?

[superjm]

I did already move the settler, a bit hasty on my part. I did actually think of doing what you said initially but I didn't want to take a chance moving away from the only food resource I saw only to waste a turn coming back. Better to take what I can see was my reasoning.

As for the sim, here's a save file you can use for now though, as I said, not knowing what those last two tiles are doesn't paint a complete picture. If that forest in the fog is a plains hill for example that changes everything, to say nothing of another resource tile.