[SPOILERS] scooter's thread: England

[scooter]

Good News: I got into Sweden

Bad News: Uberfish has SO many options here that I'm going to need a lot of luck for this next turn to swing my way. Like honestly he could do about 9 different things, and I'll need quite a bit of luck to break even on this turn, let alone to gain a build. Good news is that Russia will definitely help with their fleet, but they are in danger of losing a unit this year too... Sigh.

I'll have more later I hope.

[scooter]

Also, Rowain's Ion->Aeg order was ridiculously bad. I have no idea what he intended to accomplish there, but from talking to Cyneheard - Russia is borderline furious (Cyneheard is working with Regoarrar). Ion-Adr and Nap->Ion would've been a VERY serious threat on Lewwyn, but instead Rowain went and ordered the least likely to succeed option that he had. Ooooookay. Especially on a spring turn - you take the safe move that sets you up. Even Albania would've been better (Adriatic would've definitely been ideal though).

Sigh. Germany/Austria are going to run away with this thing because Rowain won't cooperate.

[scooter]

Ok, I'm going to lay out what I view to be the most likely scenario here. Unfortunately, Uberfish is just loaded with options, and if I were to lay them all out, it'd take all day... So here's a good possibility:



Breakdown

Edinburgh and London are both wide open right now, which is bad. The obvious play is to order Eng-Lon and Nwg-Edi to play it safe, but I'm in no position to play it safe right now, to be frank. I need to swing for the fences here a little bit.

1. Using English Channel as support on Brest guarantees that I will take Brest from Uberfish. This is a big deal. Downside: It risks London, and I'd rather have London than Brest. Upside: With this move, I have a shot at keeping Brest AND London, and right now I need a home run, because a minor win is just prolonging the inevitable, while a big win gives me a fighting chance.

2. I think there's a chance Uberfish attempts to convoy into York. Convoy into Edi/Lon is possible, but also lower chance of success, so I think he plays it safe here. This would be a REALLY bad thing for me, which is why it makes a lot of sense for him to do it.. But we'll see what he actually does. The risk here is that he has nobody to support the convoy, and either Nwg/Eng could easily disrupt it.

3. The Norway/Sweden situation is crazy. Basically, I have to hope for a split, which would mean no net gain. If I get a split here and take Brest without losing a home center (3 HUGE if's to be honest), then I get +1 build. It's very possible I could end up at -1 if Uberfish plays it right though, so it's really a big guessing game.

4. Uberfish has one way of guaranteeing he takes Sweden - by ordering Bal-Swe with 2 supports. If he ordered, say, Den-Swe with Nor/Bal support, Swe-Nwy and Bot-Bal would cut the supports, so that's less likely. By ordering Bal-Swe he can guarantee a capture of Sweden...

5. So there's one counter here that I really have, and that's ordering Swe-Nwy with Nwg support. There's nothing Uberfish can do to counter this, short of supporting Nwy with Nth (which is very unlikely), and it would guarantee a split of Norway/Sweden. It also lets Russia have a chance to slip into the Baltic Sea, which would be kinda scary for Uberfish to be honest.

So that's one scenario. If you start studying the map though, you can quickly realize that there's literally a dozen scenarios that could unfold here. Uberfish could just move Nth-Lon. He could abandon Brest, rendering my English Channel support a waste and a mistake. He could order double support of Nwy-Swe and move Nth-Nor. The options are limitless, and I can't possibly figure out exactly what he'll do, so when it comes down to it, it's a guessing game.

I need to swing for the fences, but unfortunately, Uberfish probably has figured that out, and could very well predict these exact moves and counter them. I'd be pretty stuck then.

I should note that these are NOT necessarily my final moves. In fact, these probably will change multiple times, but I had a few minutes and thought I'd try to outline the thought process you use to approach a turn like this by giving a scenario here that is very possible... Any questions?

[antisocialmunky]

You should listen to the Churchill Speech before you make your orders
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkTw3_PmK...re=related

Seems to bring luck for my games atleast.

[scooter]

You should listen to the Churchill Speech before you make your orders
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkTw3_PmK...re=related

Seems to bring luck for my games atleast.

I suppose that's definitely much more fitting than the Bon Iver I've been listening to lately .

[Wyatan]

The whole situation is indeed a mess, ripe with endless possibilities.

I'm not sure your scenario is the correct one in the North : as you pointed out, losing the Baltic would be very bad for Uberfish, so I don't think he'll opt for a scenario leaving him open to that possibility.

In the South, if you're "swinging for the fences" (didn't know that phrase, eh), you might try for something a lot more daring :
A Gas - Spa
F Mao - Bre
F Eng - Bel

You seem to assume that Rowain will cooperate (which he should indeed do), but will he see reason ? (no spoilers there, I'm just laying out another scenario).
Brest can hold with A Bre-Gas supported by both Paris and Marseilles. And in such a scenario, Italy would move to Portugal.
F Mao - Bre may be a tad too daring (only yields results in this particular scenario) and could be replaced with a more conservative move to the English Channel, but the move to Spain works in a lot more scenarios... could even be arranged with Italy if you trust him.
As for Eng - Bel, well, there are only two reasons Uberfish moved there instead of Burgundy (said move being btw one of the reasons I'm wary of Italy's status) : to protect Belgium or to convoy to your mainland. If the latter...

I don't really believe Uberfish will order Bre - Gas : the option was even better last turn (and would have resulted in the destruction of your army, with the only counters leaving your Atlantic fleets away from the main action, and thus unlikely) and he didn't go for it, so why go for it now ?
But I thought I should mention it... You could aim at +3 in the South !

[scooter]

The whole situation is indeed a mess, ripe with endless possibilities.

I'm not sure your scenario is the correct one in the North : as you pointed out, losing the Baltic would be very bad for Uberfish, so I don't think he'll opt for a scenario leaving him open to that possibility.

Here's the problem. Let's assume Uberfish wants Sweden, which is a safe assumption. What are the ways he could do it? First, we're going to assume North Sea does not play a role, which I think is a safe assumption since he'd like to use that to pressure my home centers. So here are his methods of taking Sweden:

1) Norway -> Sweden with Denmark, Baltic support

This won't happen unless he orders North Sea -> Norway, which seems crazy to me. Also, Sweden->Denmark and Bot-Bal would cut supports, causing this to fail. Not a safe bet for him

2) Denmark->Sweden with Norway, Baltic Support

This makes a good deal of sense (and is the second most likely), however, Swe-Nor and Bot-Bal cut support for this, causing it to fail

3) Baltic->Sweden with Denmark, Norway support

This plan is foolproof UNLESS Norwegian Sea joins in on the fray, which is dangerous given that Edinburgh is wide open. This is why the move makes a good deal of sense.

Now yes, it puts Baltic at risk, but given that this is a fall turn, Uberfish could probably deal with that possibility - especially when Russia may have to delete a unit at end of this year.


Short version: things are quite bleak.

In the South, if you're "swinging for the fences" (didn't know that phrase, eh),

FYI that phrase comes from baseball - in other words, swinging to hit a home run - a lower percentage swing but with higher upside. That's where the phrase comes from.

you might try for something a lot more daring :
A Gas - Spa
F Mao - Bre
F Eng - Bel

You seem to assume that Rowain will cooperate (which he should indeed do), but will he see reason ? (no spoilers there, I'm just laying out another scenario).
Brest can hold with A Bre-Gas supported by both Paris and Marseilles. And in such a scenario, Italy would move to Portugal.
F Mao - Bre may be a tad too daring (only yields results in this particular scenario) and could be replaced with a more conservative move to the English Channel, but the move to Spain works in a lot more scenarios... could even be arranged with Italy if you trust him.
As for Eng - Bel, well, there are only two reasons Uberfish moved there instead of Burgundy (said move being btw one of the reasons I'm wary of Italy's status) : to protect Belgium or to convoy to your mainland. If the latter...

I don't really believe Uberfish will order Bre - Gas : the option was even better last turn (and would have resulted in the destruction of your army, with the only counters leaving your Atlantic fleets away from the main action, and thus unlikely) and he didn't go for it, so why go for it now ?
But I thought I should mention it... You could aim at +3 in the South !

1. I'm assuming Rowain will cooperate because I have little choice. I also think HE has little choice but to cooperate given my possible collapse vs Germany. How long he'll cooperate is a mystery, but it's the way things are going to have to be for now. Portugal will inevitably become Italian, I just want him to wait awhile longer. Going after Spain is cute, but I'm not sure what it'll gain me, given that I can't afford to fight Germany and Italy at the same time. I think I just have to grit my teeth and trust Rowain even though he's proven himself to be slightly erratic.

2. I pretty much think Uberfish will simply order Brest-Paris to support each other and leave it at that. He'll accept that I can take Brest, but force me to use both supports to do it, which is indeed a sacrifice and a risk. I think Gas-Brest with 2 supports is more likely to succeed than winging it into Belgium, and I also think the chance that he abandons Brest is near 0 given that it really costs him nothing at all to just sit there and force me to use both supports.

3. Belgium - I'm probably just going to have to risk him doing whatever he does there. And really, here are the order sets in the west that I'm actually considering:


A. Gas-Bre with Mao, Eng support
B. Eng-Bel, Mao-Eng, Gas Hld (or Gas-Bur)
C. Convoy Gas-Lon via Mao and go after Norway (crossing my fingers that he doesn't go for Edi as I could handle anything else).


Honestly, option C is making a lot of sense right now. Still going to give it some more thought.

[Wyatan]

OK, here's my take of things in the North.

F Nth - Edi
Edi and not Lon because the Nwg fleet can either cover Edi or put pressure on Norway, not both, while London can be covered by the Eng fleet. Moving that fleet now to allow for another fleet into the North sea makes sense : you cannot afford to attack the North sea or you'd lose an home center in the retreat phase.

The "safest" moves for Uberfish would be :
F Nwy Holds (and retreats to North Sea if dislodged).
F Den - Swe
F Bal S F Den - Swe
+0 to +2, worst case scenario is a status-quo.

A bit riskier, but with greater potential tactical gains :
F Den - Nth
F Bal - Swe
F Nwy S F Bal - Swe


Now, from Italy's point of view, ERI vs AG mustn't look that much appealing. Russia's gutted, you're on your way down... lonely days ahead.
Allying with Germany would be a sure way of handing the game to them.
Austria would make a perfect ally : n°2 + n°3 vs n°1, and with a well timed stab (far easier vs Austria than vs Germany), n°3 may still entertain the notion of becoming n°1.

In that scenario, having you crumble fast may be in Italy's best interest. It would spur Austria to move against Germany sooner, and Italy could start making gains in the West while a -barely- surviving Russia would prevent Austria from running away with the game.
So, I would expect a "stab" by Italy this fall.
And where's Italy going to gain centers anyway ?

Now, taking Brest has the big advantage of being +1 for you, and -1 for Germany, so it might be the better option afterall. But it's a short-lived gain and leaves your units out of position. You need to wrestle the North Sea out of German hands ASAP.

F Eng - Lon
F Mao - Eng
A Gas - Spa (counter-counter stab, prevents a unit loss)
These orders would prevent a unit loss in the South, and reposition your units nicely.
Obviously, the drawbacks are foregoing an alliance with Italy (unless you warn him, but then he could order Mar - Spa) and no loss for Germany (plus a slight standoff risk in London, but then Edinburgh would be safe).

Strangely enough, your fate might be decided in the East : the only "sure" gain for Germany would be Warsaw with Austrian support, but I guess Austria wants Warsaw for themselves, and actually can get it without German support...

[scooter]

Some great thoughts Wyatan - you ought to consider playing in the next game that starts.

OK, here's my take of things in the North.

F Nth - Edi
Edi and not Lon because the Nwg fleet can either cover Edi or put pressure on Norway, not both, while London can be covered by the Eng fleet. Moving that fleet now to allow for another fleet into the North sea makes sense : you cannot afford to attack the North sea or you'd lose an home center in the retreat phase.

The "safest" moves for Uberfish would be :
F Nwy Holds (and retreats to North Sea if dislodged).
F Den - Swe
F Bal S F Den - Swe
+0 to +2, worst case scenario is a status-quo.

A bit riskier, but with greater potential tactical gains :
F Den - Nth
F Bal - Swe
F Nwy S F Bal - Swe

One comment is that I think the chance of a convoy via North Sea is actually pretty high because I don't think he'll want to leave the North Sea empty this year - or worse - risk me getting into it. This is something that's just recently occurred to me - that a scary thing for him would be ME regaining the North Sea... The North Sea touches no less than 6 supply centers, which is the most of any body of water, making North Sea one of the most important tiles in the game (if not THE most important). It's the #1 reason this situation was such a mess honestly - because Germany controlling North Sea is a disaster, and England controlling the North Sea usually means England is stable and Germany's on the defensive. For that reason, Nth->Edi is nice and all, but if we break even on centers AND I manage to take the North Sea - then I'm in pretty ok shape. For that reason, I think the odds of a convoy are greatly increased, which means Nwg-Nth looks awfully attractive right now to be honest.

Speaking of which, Regoarrar pointed out a reason why Swe-Nor with Nwg support isn't going to fly... He said the problem there is that he'd have to cover Stp, because a dislodged Nwy could just retreat to Stp, which would be just a bit bad for him.... I'm getting ahead of myself.

Now, from Italy's point of view, ERI vs AG mustn't look that much appealing. Russia's gutted, you're on your way down... lonely days ahead.
Allying with Germany would be a sure way of handing the game to them.
Austria would make a perfect ally : n°2 + n°3 vs n°1, and with a well timed stab (far easier vs Austria than vs Germany), n°3 may still entertain the notion of becoming n°1.

In that scenario, having you crumble fast may be in Italy's best interest. It would spur Austria to move against Germany sooner, and Italy could start making gains in the West while a -barely- surviving Russia would prevent Austria from running away with the game.
So, I would expect a "stab" by Italy this fall.
And where's Italy going to gain centers anyway ?

I'm fully expecting Italy to be working together with Austria, and his recent actions really support that... I'm just hoping I can get Rowain to wait one more year. It really IS against his interest to have me crumble quickly, because in reality, Germany's the only one who's going to get my centers (except for Portugal)... And seriously, Germany has 4 fleets now (surely 1-2 more would get added with a conquest of me), and where do you think those fleets will go next? Yeah, probably Mediterranean to pick up Iberia + Marseilles. So I'm just hoping I've convinced Rowain to let me live a bit longer to help him against Germany. A stab by Italy would likely propel Germany to victory, and I think I'm being pretty unbiased when I say that. If Rowain DOES stab this fall, well gg Uberfish.

Now, taking Brest has the big advantage of being +1 for you, and -1 for Germany, so it might be the better option afterall. But it's a short-lived gain and leaves your units out of position. You need to wrestle the North Sea out of German hands ASAP.

F Eng - Lon
F Mao - Eng
A Gas - Spa (counter-counter stab, prevents a unit loss)
These orders would prevent a unit loss in the South, and reposition your units nicely.
Obviously, the drawbacks are foregoing an alliance with Italy (unless you warn him, but then he could order Mar - Spa) and no loss for Germany (plus a slight standoff risk in London, but then Edinburgh would be safe).

Strangely enough, your fate might be decided in the East : the only "sure" gain for Germany would be Warsaw with Austrian support, but I guess Austria wants Warsaw for themselves, and actually can get it without German support...

FWIW - a "short-lived" gain at Brest is still significant... Even getting 2 turns use out of, say, a F London build - well that's a HUGE deal for my circumstances... North Sea would guaranteed fall to me, then I could theoretically have fleets in Eng, Nth, AND Nwg, and at that point, I'm in pretty ok shape, and Belgium + Norway are both in serious trouble, with Denmark/Holland being in trouble to a lesser extent.

[Wyatan]

you ought to consider playing in the next game that starts.

Well, I considered it, but although 3 games played 20 years ago doesn't exactly make me an expert, it's a newbie game. Also, my computer's dying (just lost yet another HDD - sigh -). Replacement's due next week, but I'm on holiday (positive : free time , negative : no backup access from work). Anyway, game is now full, maybe next one.
But hey, I'm kinda delurking here (check number of posts with joining year, knowing it actually took me years to sign up), one step at a time !

Speaking of which, Regoarrar pointed out a reason why Swe-Nor with Nwg support isn't going to fly... He said the problem there is that he'd have to cover Stp, because a dislodged Nwy could just retreat to Stp, which would be just a bit bad for him....

Nice catch, keep forgetting that Finland - Saint-Petersburg connection.
Well, that's bad news indeed. Means Uberfish would be pretty safe in assuming F Bot - Stp, which alters the balance of power in Scandinavia in his favour and almost garantees +1 for him and -1 for you in the North.

For that reason, I think the odds of a convoy are greatly increased, which means Nwg-Nth looks awfully attractive right now to be honest.

Well, two things :
1- You can only disrupt a convoy by dislodging the conveying fleet, which you cannot do here (you'd lose a home center with the retreat). The only way you'd regain the North Sea this turn would be if Uberfsh vacated it without moving another fleet to replace it, which I find hard to envision.
2- The convoy to York scenario would be an absolute killing blow as a Spring move. But this is fall, and it would expose a center (Belgium) to capture now in exchange for a threat on your centers in Spring. Not that great.
So if a convoy there is, I think it's gonna be headed to London instead. But I still think A Bel holds (protects Belgium and access to Noth Sea and Holland) and F Nth - Edi (with F Den - Nth to cover for it) much more likely.
(On the other hand, although I considered the convoy move to Armenia by Russia vs Turkey earlier, I dismissed it because I deemed it tactically unsound because Turkey's "obvious" moves were a good counter to it... turns out it still happened, Turkey didn't go for the obvious moves and crumbled. So my predictions come with the customary salt... )

FWIW - a "short-lived" gain at Brest is still significant... Even getting 2 turns use out of, say, a F London build - well that's a HUGE deal for my circumstances... North Sea would guaranteed fall to me, then I could theoretically have fleets in Eng, Nth, AND Nwg, and at that point, I'm in pretty ok shape, and Belgium + Norway are both in serious trouble, with Denmark/Holland being in trouble to a lesser extent.

Yes, that's why in spite of being such an obvious move, it may still be the better move : it's -1 for Germany, +1 for you.
IMO, Uberfish's counter for it is :
1- Italy stabs you in Portugal : -1 for you. He may be mistaken in that assumption, but his moves hint at it (I fully expected A Ruh - Bur and A Bre - Gas last turn, resulting in the destruction of you army, or it's retreat into Spain which would have driven the wedge further between you and Italy. He didn't do it, which suggests confidence in Italy).
2- He gets Warsaw : +1 for him. That one's trickier since Austria can get it even without support from Germany. What I'd do as Uberfish is :
a- Negociate with Austria that Warsaw and Saint-Petersburg should be German, all the rest (including Moscow) Austrian.
b- Expecting A War - Mos this turn (Warsaw is doomed but can protect Moscow), try to prevent it by promising Russia A Sil S A War Holds (actually credible : payback for Austria refusing support for a German Poland, and in Germany's best interests not to see Russia crumble too fast).
c- Ordering A Sil - War with support from Galicia while Ukraine marches into Moscow.

Even if those fail, with the +1 / -1 in the North, you still don't get a build, and your Western fleets stay in the West for one more precious turn.

This is why I think F Eng - Lon and F Mao - Eng ought to be considered : worst case, stand-off (which means you don't lose a home center and may keep the split in Scandinavia : not too bad), best case you're in position to recapture the North sea in Spring for a much more promising Fall turn.

You can counter F Spa - Por with A Gas - Spa (although on further reflexion A Mar - Spa and A Pie - Mar seem increasingly likely) or with trust in Italy.
You cannot really do anything about Warsaw except hope (but with good reason) that Austria won't hand it over to Germany without a compensation.

And seriously, Germany has 4 fleets now (surely 1-2 more would get added with a conquest of me), and where do you think those fleets will go next? Yeah, probably Mediterranean to pick up Iberia + Marseilles.

Absolutely. But this is also why Italy needs to gets Iberia for itself fast and get a build in the water. There's a standoff line over there, Rowain needs to secure it.
The only other place I See Italy can get a build this year is Greece, but that one's iffy.

The funny thing over there is that Amelia with her single remaining fleet holds the key to how the situation resolves itself in the Balkans this year.