[PB37 SPOILER] Coeurva, Bacchus -- Cyrus of Carthage

[Coeurva]

Also, everyone's expansion speed is about to skip a beat due to lack of commerce, so unless Savant settles his next city towards us, I think we get a chance to snipe that border settlement. What can we comfortably aim for there, T55?

If we build W5 from T43 to T47, and use W3 to improve rice and grow to size4 (0/28 bin) on T50 as suggested above, then working rice/cow/copper/clams + 50% hammers from IMP means 9f + 13h pt at Rhapsody, so settler #5 could indeed finish on T55.

We could also use the 9 fpt to grow to size5 first (finishing an axe, spear, or granary) while a worker improves a grass mine, then work rice/cow/copper/clams/mine for 8 fpt + 18 hpt into a 4t settler, finishing on T58 (or T57 if we use T47 to work the oasis rather than copper, which makes growth happen on T53). B-West will probably get founded around T53, since Sicil is quite far away (the little stretch of road helps a bit).

We still have two chops remaining at Rhapsody, but might want to use them on a granary, library, or post-Maths instead.

[Bacchus]

Hmm, I would probably tend to grow whilst finishing an axe then, and then do the 4-turn settler. Also gives workers a bit more time to do things.

Don't want to venture there without a real unit, and even with one axe it's a touch scary, but at least there are hills, fortification bonus, and the option to immediately chop an axe after settling.

[Bacchus]

On a different tack, what's the growth/whip schedule for Sicil?

EDIT: and to help alleviate some of the demographic concerns -- 5 behind average of 27 is one pop working a rice farm in the capital for a net gain of 3 over us, but we are 4 ahead of average in MFG, so we are not really behind. CY becomes much more important once granaries are on the scene, as the CY -> MFG exchange rate goes nuts, but by that time we would have caught up.

[Coeurva]

Sicil doesn't whip. Growth in 3t (3/24 bin, 7fpt) after the settler finishes on T48 because I am such a micro wizard (not really, but this was the point of working that one plains forest for a turn way back when). EDIT: Whips a granary at size3 with 13/26 bin, can manage that.

The copper is forested, which means it takes at least 8t to connect it (1t movement, 3t chop, 4t mine; river connects) and the chop will be 20h (no Maths), so it's more shaky than that, unless we're settling on top of copper. A quiet border with Savant benefits both of our nations (stifling his expansion makes his neighbours larger); don't want to force his hand by settling too aggressively. Besides, our southern border will have two forkable cities on flatland; the more positionally secure the north, the more units can we send south.

It's possible to settle silver/pigs instead, or any site that denies Front City to both of us, resolving the tension naturally for the time being. Could also settle the southern plains hill here, to deny the other plains hill to Savant (a monstrous site), but that will probably sour our relations.

And here's T42. The turn pace sure has picked up.

Worker #1 has finished pasturing the cows at Sicil. W4 due on T44. Both will chop the next settler (T48); W1 stays with the city, W4 roads southward.

The land bridge to our south-west leads... seemingly nowhere. There's a strange extension of land that runs four tiles vertically and one horizontally (check minimap), containing only dry rice for a resource (can overlap B-West's crabs), and that seems to be it. Warrior #4 should probably rather explore the south.

Gained visibility on the copper site again by moving Arithmetician (near hammy silver). No sight of Savant there.


A screenshot of southern Savantia, including the capital's second-ring borders. Note the grass mine on a hill that was forested, indicating a surplus of worker labor (Ironfist isn't size5), and perhaps a lack of Agriculture when he laid it down.

CML hasn't founded his third city yet, but he's been accumulating some crop yield (~28 by now, eyeballing from graphs; we have 23), lacking in MFG (8, maybe?), and surpassing us in GNP recently. Savant has 29,000 soldiers (pop) and we've dropped to third rank in that category. MFG tied for first again (14). Something interesting in the culture graphs; since ~T39, Savant has slightly more culture than we do -- did he research Myst and build a stele in his second city?

EDIT: Just a minor point, but W3 only loses 1t moving towards city #3 after all -- he has 1t-roaded the tile 12 of Rhapsody on this turn. Will >22 on T43, then >1 pasture on T44.

[Bacchus]

If you can grab visibility into Ironfist with the warrior that would be handy for the future.

I think we have to settle at least the southern plains hill, his plains hill plant is just insane, it's like a 1-city empire. The problem is that southern plainshill fucks with our dotmap a little. The next hill up, the equidistant point from our capitals at 7 tiles is still not perfect, and it's the copper that's best to settle as you pointed out. It's 1 tile closer to Castle Ironfist than to Cowish Rhapsody of course, so he may tilt a little.

But still, notwithstanding the impassable tiles, this isn't really "his" territory, it's clearly some borderland which Mardoc probably wanted us to contest, hence their richness. It would be nice to split that land "evenly", I don't see how to do it except for maybe that southern plainshill. If he gets angry at that, it wouldn't be particularly rational, it's 6 tiles from our cap, and actually a clear offer to divide the land in half, way I see it. Of course he may not see it similarly.

[Bacchus]

Oh yeah, Savants extra culture -- Barracks, maybe? Somewhat early, but maybe he planted a city really counting on the second ring.

[Coeurva]

Warrior will move 87 (should catch sight of Ironfist). Barracks make sense; I forgot that those give +1 culture with RtR AGG. But Dark Savant has added whatever produces culture only recently, and barracks add 3,000 power, yet he only gained 1,000 soldiers last turn -- did he lose a unit? Then again, he would hardly build a stele when he has barracks available for the same effective price.

Regarding our border city with Savant, the plains hill plant might be viable after all if we can immediately build a library; chop two forests for 54h and use a grass mine to finish the thing in ~7t (faster than whip when our best food tiles is 2). Teching Sailing after Writing would connect copper to this city, by the way. Slow start here, but what a city this becomes once borders are popped.

We might consider founding this as #4, even, since if Savant plants the plains hill, that city will put immense pressure on anything we found in the north, no matter where, and denies us all three sites. And I have a feeling that he'll plant this city sooner rather than later. Settling this region without axeman support worries me (especially since whatever city has barracks can build Shock-promoted axes), although we could always tech Archery (takes 5t) and redirect the chops in an emergency. Writing coming in a bit later than #4 would get settled doesn't matter much; we can pre-chop the forests anyway. Here's hoping that he'd see this as an offer to give him everything else in the area, except for the megalopolis on the plains hill that we simply can't allow, rather than a prelude to aggression.

We could also tech AH before Writing, and gamble on horses within our borders.

[Bacchus]

Is there worker availability to support it as #4 plant? That would be my major issues, along with lack of axe, commerce waste on archery, and even then a non-guarantees result -- exactly at what turn do we decide that it's OK to let the chops fall into the library? He may well build an axe for purely defensive purposes at least at some point between T50-60, so we can't really rely on graphs to lead our decision. I guess we can advance scout for any incoming axes with a Warrior.

Hmmmm. By which point do we need to make this decision?

Oh! Could we just park our warrior on his hill and reinforce him? Kind of showing that planting there is unacceptable to us? Except he may well interpret it as us staking a settlement for ourselves, insane as that would be.

Difficult.

[Coeurva]

Is there worker availability to support it as #4 plant?

Up to 3 workers, actually (W4 from Sicil, W3 & W5 from capital), but we'll probably want to use at least one of them on some other task (improving the south or improving the capital). They'll also lose some turns moving, most likely (although that's an issue with this site in any case).

That said, I'd rather use settler #4 on B-West as well. I'm mostly nervous because the first axe would only arrive at the city shortly before T60.

That would be my major issues, along with lack of axe, commerce waste on archery, and even then a non-guarantees result -- exactly at what turn do we decide that it's OK to let the chops fall into the library?

Probably just build the thing a.s.a.p., because once borders pop and all the good tiles come online, the city is quite safe (20% cultural defense helps as well).

He may well build an axe for purely defensive purposes at least at some point between T50-60, so we can't really rely on graphs to lead our decision. I guess we can advance scout for any incoming axes with a Warrior.

We can possibly use Ames-Ace to distract him, by moving him north towards other cities (on the other hand, I fear that our warrior will provoke him into building an axe if we keep him too close). My current hope is that Savant isn't settling towards us because he's more scared of his other neighbour, but that's pure conjecture.

Mind you, he had a warrior snooping around in the area some turns ago -- that might have been a vanguard for his next settler, as he knows this area already from his earliest scouting moves, although he might have intended to send him south-eastward instead.

Hmmmm. By which point do we need to make this decision?

T48

Oh! Could we just park our warrior on his hill and reinforce him? Kind of showing that planting there is unacceptable to us? Except he may well interpret it as us staking a settlement for ourselves, insane as that would be.

Good idea (could use Arithmetician for that).

If he really wants to settle the plains hill next, however, that might provoke him to build an axeman earlier than he had intended. He might be wary of declaring outright war on us, though, especially since he has at least one other neighbour.

We do have a history of avoiding conflict (scout moves on T5/T6, and he has never sent any warriors towards our borders, even though he knows where we are, and had three warriors to our single one for a while, and could infer this from graphs)

[Coeurva]

T43

This warrior was out of visibility range until we moved onto the site.

Do we still found B? There's a second warrior in-theatre, his warrior is injured (same strength as ours on the plot), and we get the fortification bonus for 2t, as well as the 25% city defense bonus, if he tries this. Alternatives are to move 7 and found there (right away), which ensures that we have two warriors in the city before he can reach it, or move onto A without cover (can move 7 first to scout, though).


Including our warrior's healing (since his warrior would not heal while moving), his warrior's odds are 6% if attacking B (and if he waits, his odds drop to zero), and he's risking a game-long enemy here either way. Still.

You can see I didn't end turn yet, partially because we can decide to use W3 (and W2 if really urgent) to connect copper right now rather than improving the rice at the capital. Also, we could produce another warrior right away from overflow, rather than the fifth worker. (Exact plan: W2 moves 8 roads (finished), W3 moves 17 roads, road finishes next turn; delays W2's arrival at south but at the same time, completes roads towards the south)


I'm still concerned that I've played badly.


Power.

CML still has two cities. Graphs indicate a lack of The Wheel, although the 3000 increase could mean that he lost pop (via whip) and teched it (or built a warrior and gained pop). Hunting/Mining starting techs indicates two warriors, perhaps three.