[SPOILERS] Lurkerloos and map discussion

[Sareln]

Am I reading this right - Galleys made the same number of hits, but Scooter's galley was hitting for 19 instead of 20 - and that's what allowed Commodore to win? Was this difference caused by the 10% defensive bonus in naval battles?

Yes.

It's why something as small as a 10% difference in strength swings the odds from 50/50 to 70/30, whilst the next 10% only moves the lever to 75/25 iirc.

EDIT: it goes 50/50, 69/31, 73/27 for a 0/10/20 advantage.

[MindyMcCready]

Are flug_auto and cornflakes deadlurking Commodore?

[Krill]

I think Cornflakes might be, but flug_auto is globally spoiled. That said, I don't see anything wrong with what he posted.

[mackoti]

Man , this is the game i enjoy the most lurking since i joined Rb.Just awesome.

[Ceiliazul]

Hear Hear! To all the players who have reported this game so heavily, thanks for making it awesome to lurk!

[timski]

I don't understand all the negativity surrounding Scooter's sunk Galley:

They lost at 32% odds, meaning that outcome was likely. That they got the Galley down to 0.1 has value, since it means Commodore won't risk leaving it to blockade, probably won't even risk pillaging with it. Team Scooter got warning of an attack on their city which otherwise would have no defenders. And they only lost a Galley, compared to a GG-Galley with 2 units on board, which is what Commodore had at stake.

On balance the outcome was as favourable as could reasonably be expected for Team Scooter. It's only negative because the team has come to expect bad luck. The irony, that when their luck isn't so bad, they don't even see it, perpetuating a myth of bad luck.

[Krill]

It's more the culmination of a bad game, bad luck with the RNG, a few bad decisions, and just general misfortune.

[Hesmyrr]

PBEM45 Spoiler

On a lighter note, I am pretty disappointed to see scooter's galley sunk. I was all ready to title him master admiral and such, with what could have been series of fortuitous naval victories.

[Gazglum]

Responding to Pindiscooter's request for analysis, I think their problems stemmed from their own bias of knowing what -they- were going to do. They seemed to want to coexist peacefully with Commodore, but he couldn't be sure of that. If you're trapped in a corner with the Zulu, and you don't know for certain that they won't attack, then you have to get metal. It doesn't matter if you could have jumbos down the line, because an impi choke will ruin you. So Commodore had to push for the iron (though his pink dot for copper was, perhaps, a stretch). And once you're at the iron, he has to secure it, which means he has to move units against Subway. And by that point they are in total war mode.

I don't disagree with Scooter's alternatives for Commodore's strategy, but they both relied on Commodre feeling safe enough through the ancient age. Since Commodore couldn't be sure of his neighbours intentions, it was perfectly rational to slip into war mode.

Anyway, these discussions will probably be better in another 100 turns. If Commodore can come out of this war and still be a serious contender for the win, then I guess his strategy wasn't so crazy after all. You can't argue iwth results.

[Sareln]

@Krill, what happened in PBEM4?