What about chances of razing or capturing Hun or Tortilla?
Mwin
|
RB Pitboss #1 Spoilers - Joai of the Incans - Krill/Memphus
|
|
Depends how the Lins play it. We have alot of extra units flooding down that they shouldn't know about unless they have a spy, sufficient to knock out units they currently have without the units we already have in theatre. But as always, the problem is one of movement. If the Lins get an extra 2-3 WE, and another couple of cats, road between Hun and Tortilla, then we end up in a stalemate (which consequently makes it easy for us to expand again). There are other strategies in place to break the deadlock, but they take a while to set up.
If they move forward though, they are likely to find themselves in a somewhat precarious position. Arguably the biggest problem for us would be if they founded a city directly 1 SE of the peak tile, but that is pretty risky move as a battle for such a city (and the preceeding moves to settle it) mean that we are able to attack before them.
http://i140.photobucket.com/albums/r25/t...0087-8.jpg
us, down a chariot, them, down a galley. We'll see what happens...
OK, I'm questioning the Lin/sunrise strategy now, on how it fits their game plan, and this is what I've come up with.
By deciding to war with me, they are telling everyone that they are busy, and can't help anyone else, as their hands are full. Should regoarrarr or ZPV request aid, they can politely refuse, and not seem like jerks, or to be undermining the UTA. Now, the question is, how are they planning on warring? Aggressively, or just stick on defence? If they try to take back Taco, head for EE etc, I fully expect to be able to break the attack and counter, if they play defensive though, and balance building military and civilian projects, and leave us with Taco, then this could be interesting. Which suggests that at least sunrise and the Lins have a close relationship within the UTA. I don't quite know what their angle is regarding regoarrarr and ZPV though, maybe they think that they won't get 5v2'd? Or that they will keep the tech edge. Which is not that great, as Machinery finished this turn, and CS should be done in 2 turns as well, leaving us up Lit, Drama, Theo and Philo, down Fued and Compass. We'll have research into Music, and we are about 5 turns from Fued currently. Next few turns will be interesting. MWIN Wrote:What would you do, if you are in Lin's position? Just give in..... It'd depend on the deal. 100 turns peace is a hell of a long time, so long the UTA and the NUTA will probably have split, which would mean that a possible alliance with the stronger power could be in my interests. I'd still want land to expand into though. I'd also look at regoarrarr and ZPV, my allies, and question their position of stability. ZPV just got beaten comprehensively by a weaker and supposedly less experienced player and is now capable of teching, but not much else. regoarrarr looks to be powerful, a capable techer, just got peace with Shadyforce, but also needs to be wary of Imhotep. They may need shoring up in the future...and if they fall while I'm busy then I'm a little screwed. If the aim is that the large power needs to be stopped at all costs, then I'd questioning "What's in it for me, to do it now, when I could be growing?" If the large power grows insanely large, then he'll alienate every friend he has, get dogpiled and then die (unless you are DaveMcW). Always think two steps ahead, what would happen if I did declare war early? Failure to grow means that unless I win a decisive victory and annex some land (in this case hold Taco, take EE, which isn't going to happen) I'll be falling behind everyone else, and later on I'm easy pickings (in this case, Broker). I'd need to find a way to keep third parties from growing, and there isn't one here. If the demands for peace had been totally unacceptable (ie, Hun, Taco, Tortilla if that is the correct name of the city, and vassalage to the larger power) then obviously it would have to be rejected, as the benefits of peace would not outweigh the benefits from war (autonomy in an FFA is a must). All in all, it is a balancing act that is very hard to pull off, particulary because there are always unknowns, future resources, alliance changes, wars. I would err on the side of caution though, peace could help the trio of sunrise, broker and the Lins to get in a position to really screw with me, especially if Ruff or Imhotep, or the person to the west of the larger power, could be brought into the war in 100 turns.
TBH, after the plan I've just come up with after we both agreed to split the turn 50/50, Poly Rules style, the Lins might have a big problem. The way they have positioned their stack and the settler suggests they want to settle a city on the grassland tile next turn. Unfortunately, after what we just agreed, if they don't retreat their stack during this turn we are going to destroy it (3WE, 2LB, vulture, spear, warrior, 2cats). And if they do retreat it, we can pillage the road on the silk so they can't move towards Taco.
It'd cost us a chariot, but we'd then have solid defensive lines, access to the road network, and interdiction over all terrain that isn't already their territory, and some that is just inside the borders. And if they continue to reinforce Taco with LB...well, we do have 8 cats in theatre already, as well as 8WE already. Add in the HA...the more LB they cram into Taco the better for us, as the cats can work their magic.
Hi Krill,
thanks for being so verbose about your strategy, your meta-gaming thoughts and your assessments of the current situation! Makes lurking this thread very enjoyable.  -Kylearan
There are two kinds of fools. One says, "This is old, and therefore good." And one says, "This is new, and therefore better." - John Brunner, The Shockwave Rider
Dreylin retreated the Hun stack, (and I assume he retreated the Tortilla stack, but I'll check that at the start of the turn) but now has 2 workers in range to repair the road, and has the settler ready to roll and create the new city any turn he wishes.
Problem is, he can't do that without letting me attack him first, and I have more units excluding cats than he has units total, even after leaving Hun and Tortilla empty. Add in the 8 cats that I have that can attack him and that'll be an absolute slaughter. So it's a stalemate...apart from the fact that I have an ace in the hole that I'm waiting on deploying. Once that happens...well, I'll explain once it does  There was another option that I was considering, which was to accept a bloody nose and head straight for Hun. It's possible for me to move up the entire stack towards Hun, and let Dreylin hit me. HE has a grand total of 9 units that can kill, 3 of them WE, but only two cats. I have 9 WE that can defend. If I can damage the WE enough with a few sacrificial units, he'll never get odds on the stack, and it'll get forced back off more into Hun (especially as I'll have plenty of fastmovers to attack it, and it is currently empty). I can probably cut the roads to Tortilla so that reinforcements have to go the long way. So if Dreylin decided to go for the attack, I'd almost certainly manage to wipe out the entire Hun stack and take Hun, thus forcing the Lins to defend as far south as their capital. Would he accept the trade of Hun for Taco? Doesn't really matter though, I'm not going to do it, not without an extra 3-4 Flanking 2 HA. But depending on how that battle went, Taco would probably be considered expendable to hold Tortilla nad get enough troops south to protect Lin. |
