PB66: Amicalola's Soapbox Opponent Analysis
The Early Birds
Amicalola - Washington (Cha/Exp) of Khmer (Ballista Elephant, Baray, Hunting/Mining)
Yeah ok, I'll start my opponent analysis with myself. Sure.
This pick grabs Mysticism and whatever necessary worker techs before beelining ASAP to Mathematics. I really like Washington, and the synergy there is obvious; in particular, I have been totally sold on Expansive by PB64, where it single-handedly saved a decidedly weak opening. Ballista Elephants are no longer broken on the attack, but they are great at killing knights on the defense. Barays are way under-estimated with EXP, that's just one whip overflow for +1 food in a city indefinitely - maybe I'm missing something, but that seems fantastic to me! The techs are the problem, and are pretty weak here. Escaping that hole is going to be the main challenge to overcome.
Amicalola as a player.... hmm. I have big strengths and weaknesses. My strengths include midgame micro, committing fully, and the Great Lighthouse. My weaknesses include early warfare, morale, cottages, and tunnel-vision on whatever I'm planning, even if something better comes along. I'd really like to focus on cottaging this game, in contrast to my past efforts; hopefully our traits will help with that. Mostly, I would tend to say I am a threat when left alone, but prone to mistakes when under pressure. Uh, don't tell the opponents that.
Gavagai - Suryavarman (Cre/Exp) of Aztecs (Jaguar, Sacrificial Altar, Hunting/Mysticism)
I like this pick a lot. Suryavarman is great, he would have been my next choice if Washington had (somehow) been taken. Aztecs on Torusland also seem very strong; the Jaguars are still a null entity, but the Sacrificial Altars are basically a better version of Charismatic after CoL, on a mapscript with very lush food and luxuries. Um, did Gavagai just straight up out-pick me?
Gavagai himself seems like a mixed bag. It's very difficult to talk about without reference to PB64, so I guess I'll put it in spoilers:
The [Expansion Trait]/Organised Gang
In gen...
In general, these......
...
Oh! Sorry, I dozed off there. In general, these teams are all trying to power-pick a combination of CtH's best trait (Organised) and an expansion trait to get them ahead. Is it strong? Yeah, I guess so. Is it interesting? Well... ok, they don't exactly spark joy. On the other hand, all of them will have pretty good odds to actually win the game.
Tarkeel + civac - Mehmed (Exp/Org) of Spain (Conquistador, Citadel, Fishing/Mysticism)
This is exactly the type of pick I'd expect from Tarkeel/Civac; no frills, brute-force leader with a slightly unusual civ. Mehmed is a top-tier CtH leader, I think many people would agree. Spain is also good - I don't like Conquistadors much, which come too late to matter, but Citadels are nice as a permanent trade route per city (though I think they're much better with Protective), and the techs are fine as long as you have seafood. I would expect these guys to competently expand out and found a religion, build courthouses everywhere, then try to kill someone at knights, and someone else at Conquistadors. Bland, but effective.
I really like Tarkeel and Civac in general, they're both nice people. However, in Civ terms, I'd be very cautious to rate them based on history. Notably, I'm not really sure it's accurate to say "Tarkeel and Civac won PB62 easily!". Instead, I would say that after T40, the other players collectively lost it, while Tarkeel/Civac did the bare minimum of staying out of the way. Individually, I'd be cautious too. Tarkeel and I did some nifty stuff in PB58 (one of my proudest games!), but in reality that game was won when Superdeath randomly attacked Jowy, not for anything specific that we did. Meanwhile, Civac had one of the 'winning' start positions in PB56 (and little should be taken from that game in general), while getting the dream position next to wide-eyed newcomer Amicalola in PB55. Anyway, none of this is to trash talk. I think this team is strong, one of the strongest in the game. But I'd place Miguelito/Ginger and Plemo/Piccadilly at a distinctly higher tier, and I'd predict Tarkeel/Civac win the prize for most overrated team based on past performance (possibly competing with me, actually
).
Mjmd - Julius Caesar (Imp/Org) of Zulu (Impi, Ikhanda, Agriculture/Hunting)
Ok, this one is a little more exciting. Julius Caesar is a very Mjmd pick (he and Naufragar share the one true love of Imp, it seems), and Zulu is interesting given he also picked them for PB65 - he must be convinced. I like them too, they're one of the civs I regret not trying, as Ikhandas seem extremely strong, and enabling of a fun conquest-style of gameplay. The techs, as we discovered in PB64, are appalling in CtH, as they are so cheap you could just research them in time anyway - yuck to that. But overall, I think this is a strong pick, and the Ikhandas give it a bit of zest.
Mjmd is really lovely guy, and makes an impressive maple syrup. In civ, Mjmd is one of the best players to have not won a game. He seems to have a pattern of establishing an decent foodhammer lead, and then wasting it somehow. Sometimes that's his fault (PB62), sometimes it's not (PB63), but the pattern is there regardless. I'd place it down to a poor perception of other players' goals and positions. It seems like frequently, Mjmd will decide on what a 'good' border will look like, and expect other players to come to the same conclusion working with wildly different information and motivations. Worse, Mjmd has no issue with ruining his own game to spite someone else who fails to reach that mutual conclusion, and for that reason he can be a terrible neighbour. The pick certainly suggests a similar pattern here.
Vanrober - Zara Yaqob (Cre/Org) of Mongolia (Keshik, Ger, Hunting/Wheel)
This pick is closer to Mjmd's than Tarkeel/Civac's. It's a boring [expansion]/ORG leader, but with an aggressive Civ that lends itself to a bit of spice. I don't think vanrober is the type of player to rush someone with HAs given the choice, so instead I'd expect him to attack someone with SuperKnights rather than use the keshiks. But keshiks are great, gers are great, the techs could be great; I like it all!
Vanrober is yet another lovely person, and a good player hampered by a lack of confidence. I expect him to plan out a careful micro and follow it to the letter, expanding well. Whether he then expands into another player mostly depends on how invested he is in the game, I suspect. I hope he does well, though!
Alhazard - Napoleon (Cha/Org) of Egypt (War Chariot, Obelisk, Agriculture/Wheel)
'But Amicalola, why is Alhazard in this group? Charismatic isn't an expansion trait.' But that, dear lurker, is where I'm afraid I have to disagree. Sure, it's not as good as Cre/Exp/Imp, but that's why Cha gets the experience as well. The monuments are decent, but really what I'm talking about is the happiness, which makes it much easier to whip civilians in the early game before luxuries are established. You can have taller cities, or you can break the 10-turn whip cycle. Alternatively, it lets you skip garrisons in backline cities earlier. That all adds up over time. Anyway, I like this pick too, as far as winning. Napoleon of War Chariots can bully anyone away from an early contested city, and the techs are decent assuming a landlocked start. Sure, the UB is a null entity, but War Chariots probably make up for that alone. I'm sold.
Alhazard is a total wildcard to me. If anyone can fill me in on past history, I'd be into that.
The Power Levellers
Miguelito + Ginger - Asoka (Org/Spi) of The Holy Roman Empire (Landschnekt, Rathaus, Hunting/Mysticism)
This is a slooooow pick. Amicalola loves slow picks!
But seriously, Asoka has no expansion traits, and neither does the Holy Roman Empire with those terrible techs. I suppose maybe if they're in a start like mine they'll get an early lighthouse, and that's not nothing, but it's not great either. Of course, Spiritual and Organised and Rathaus' all reward a large empire, so if these guys can manage to get big somehow, they've probably already won.
Miguelito is really, really good. Having read each of the threads (and with a good grasp of at least my own game), I'd say Miguelito pretty clearly played the 'best' game of the PB59 contenders. Who, I realise now, are all in this one! That's fun. Anyway, Mig is great at civ, if prone to morale shocks. Ginger is great at building, although pretty new to pitboss war, which is where it gets really different to ladder play. But Miguelito can cover that, if PB63 wasn't enough experience (it probably was), and having a dedlurker seems to help with the morale problems. I'd say this team is either first- or second-best here, and between that and their pick I'd call them the tentative favourites.
JackRB - Lieu-Ye (Org/Pro) of Carthage (Numidian Cavalry, Cothon, Fishing/Mining)
Hey, it's me! So we won this game, but that was entirely because of Lieu-Ye, not Carthage. In fact, Carthage might as well have said 'Fishing/Mining civ.' We didn't build a single Numidian, and Cothons were only worth it in Size 15+ cities due to the trade mechanics. So I don't think this pick is synergistic at all. Lieu-Ye is very strong by herself though, so I don't hate it.
JackRB is a bit of a mystery to me. I haven't followed him closely, but it seems as though he's played well, but not competed for the win, in both of his games here. Hopefully the third time is the charm, it's nice to have new players around.
Superdeath - Hammurabi (Agg/Org) of Vikings (Berserker, Trading Post, Fishing/Hunting)
This is the opposite of all the other Organised picks. It's terrible, but boy is it exciting at the same time! If Superdeath can micro the hell out of his start, and not fall behind by the time he gets to Civil Service and Machinery, he might get to raze a few coastal cities with berserkers (I'm not sure he'd be able to do much more than that, actually). But man, I bet it would feel good to do it. I hope it works! Just on someone who isn't me.
Superdeath is difficult to rate, and it's all been said a million times before. I feel like there's a somewhat universal opinion of SD - everyone likes him, and everyone has burst a blood vessel playing civ with him. I share this opinion. SD makes moves that I don't understand even in hindsight, and like Mjmd, has a pretty distinct pattern. That being: ruin someone else's game over a grudge (real or sometimes imagined) at the cost of his own game too. As such, neighbouring SD is a real mixed bag; sometimes, he leaves you alone and wins you the game (PB58 Tarkeel/Amica), sometimes he attacks you for no reason and with no chance of success (PB58 Jowy), and sometimes he manages both in one game (PB60 Amica). To be honest, I'd rather start on the other side of the map and avoid the stress. But as always, I hope this is the game he breaks the pattern!
The one thing I would add while I'm on my SD-specific soapbox: I imagine some people would value SD's playstyle because it breeds fear, which could let SD get away with things other players couldn't. This is silly. SD's playstyle means that as soon as anyone has an advantage over him, they attack him with extreme prejudice, because he can't be trusted as a safe backline. The aggressive, backstabbing playstyle is counterproductive from a meta perspective because it makes alliances impossible. Ok, back to the more general soapbox now.
The Villains
Piccadilly + plemo - Tokugawa (Agg/Pro) of Rome (Praetorian, Forum, Fishing/Mining)
Two of Civforum's best players joining our roughly 'RB-average' game with an Aggressive Rome pick?
Sounds like villains to me. Tokugawa of Rome is another pick that does not spark joy. Sure, this team would suck to neighbour, but they will have very little help expanding (Pro is sort of an expansion trait, but in the Cha vein of 'sort of'). So they'll need to do good micro to get ahead and use those praetorians effectively. If the start is similar to ours, these are fairly objectively the best techs, so that could help them get ahead.
I'm not sure they need the help; Plemo and Piccadilly are a scary team. Plemo seems to be fairly unequivocally Civforum's best player, having convincingly won every game he's played over there (and, somewhat questionably, absolutely stomped a greens game here). Self-perception issues aside , I haven't read a Plemo thread but I assume he's calculating, detail-oriented, all the good-Civ-player things. Piccadilly is a little less unstoppable, but played a hell of a game in PB59 and is a great player in his own right. As players, I think this team is easily the strongest here; I'm just not sold on their pick. I can't wait for them to prove me wrong. But do it to someone else, please. 
The Misc. Category
Magic Science - Sulieman (Imp/Phi) of Greece (Hoplite, Odeon, Fishing/Hunting)
Yuck. I dunno what this pick is, but I don't like it. I'm not sold on PHI - I get that it's amazing in the right situation, but it's so dependent on what the others players do. Rushing the Pyramids for an early engineer? Oop, someone else wanted it more. Rushing MC? Oop, someone else got Construction and you're dead. Just using libraries? Well, ok, but that's pretty slow. Anyway, I get that it's good, I just think it's not for me. I think Imp is worse than Exp except in fairly niche circumstances, particularly small maps, and I don't think this is small enough to qualify. Greece, at least, is excellent. The Hoplite is busted in its current form, enough that the Odeon's relative weakness doesn't matter much. With seafood, the techs are passable too. But Suleiman? Yuck.
Magic Science is the other wildcard. I like that they're actively lurking the others games, at least.
GeneralKillCavalry - Kublai Khan (Agg/Cre) of America (Minuteman, Carnegie Library, Agriculture/Fishing)
Kublai Khan is an interesting choice, given that GKC also played him in their last game. That one didn't work out too well, but I don't think GKC was too engaged. I wonder if that will change here. Anyway, KK is one of the better Aggressive leaders, in my opinion. But I've never actually played with Creative, so I can't really judge how good (or not) it is. America seems great with the new library, I wonder if Charriu's slightly overtuned that in an effort to make the civ playable, and GKC gets Carnegie's for cheap with Cre. Minutemen I'm not sold on, but I haven't seen them in action. If drafted, it'll be really hard to get more than one promotion on them, so Guerilla3 or Guerilla2+Woodsman2 super-muskets will be difficult to create efficiently. But I'd love it to work out, it's cool!
GKC, as mentioned, seems to have been relatively disinterested in their recent games. I don't know though whether the disinterest is because of weak positions, or vice versa. Probably a feedback loop between both, if I had to guess. But I think they did well in some of the games before my time, so I'm not counting them out. I'm just not expecting too much, and hoping that I'll be pleasantly surprised.
So, in sum, I think this is going to be a very interesting game. As in most modern Civ4 games, there are no obvious minnows, or at least very few. Which means some of the better players will likely be invaded relatively early, and there's too many favourites for them all to perform well. I wonder how many of us will still be alive by the end of it...
The Early Birds
Amicalola - Washington (Cha/Exp) of Khmer (Ballista Elephant, Baray, Hunting/Mining)
Yeah ok, I'll start my opponent analysis with myself. Sure.
This pick grabs Mysticism and whatever necessary worker techs before beelining ASAP to Mathematics. I really like Washington, and the synergy there is obvious; in particular, I have been totally sold on Expansive by PB64, where it single-handedly saved a decidedly weak opening. Ballista Elephants are no longer broken on the attack, but they are great at killing knights on the defense. Barays are way under-estimated with EXP, that's just one whip overflow for +1 food in a city indefinitely - maybe I'm missing something, but that seems fantastic to me! The techs are the problem, and are pretty weak here. Escaping that hole is going to be the main challenge to overcome.Amicalola as a player.... hmm. I have big strengths and weaknesses. My strengths include midgame micro, committing fully, and the Great Lighthouse. My weaknesses include early warfare, morale, cottages, and tunnel-vision on whatever I'm planning, even if something better comes along. I'd really like to focus on cottaging this game, in contrast to my past efforts; hopefully our traits will help with that. Mostly, I would tend to say I am a threat when left alone, but prone to mistakes when under pressure. Uh, don't tell the opponents that.
Gavagai - Suryavarman (Cre/Exp) of Aztecs (Jaguar, Sacrificial Altar, Hunting/Mysticism)
I like this pick a lot. Suryavarman is great, he would have been my next choice if Washington had (somehow) been taken. Aztecs on Torusland also seem very strong; the Jaguars are still a null entity, but the Sacrificial Altars are basically a better version of Charismatic after CoL, on a mapscript with very lush food and luxuries. Um, did Gavagai just straight up out-pick me?
Gavagai himself seems like a mixed bag. It's very difficult to talk about without reference to PB64, so I guess I'll put it in spoilers:
The [Expansion Trait]/Organised Gang
In gen...
In general, these......
...
Oh! Sorry, I dozed off there. In general, these teams are all trying to power-pick a combination of CtH's best trait (Organised) and an expansion trait to get them ahead. Is it strong? Yeah, I guess so. Is it interesting? Well... ok, they don't exactly spark joy. On the other hand, all of them will have pretty good odds to actually win the game.
Tarkeel + civac - Mehmed (Exp/Org) of Spain (Conquistador, Citadel, Fishing/Mysticism)
This is exactly the type of pick I'd expect from Tarkeel/Civac; no frills, brute-force leader with a slightly unusual civ. Mehmed is a top-tier CtH leader, I think many people would agree. Spain is also good - I don't like Conquistadors much, which come too late to matter, but Citadels are nice as a permanent trade route per city (though I think they're much better with Protective), and the techs are fine as long as you have seafood. I would expect these guys to competently expand out and found a religion, build courthouses everywhere, then try to kill someone at knights, and someone else at Conquistadors. Bland, but effective.
I really like Tarkeel and Civac in general, they're both nice people. However, in Civ terms, I'd be very cautious to rate them based on history. Notably, I'm not really sure it's accurate to say "Tarkeel and Civac won PB62 easily!". Instead, I would say that after T40, the other players collectively lost it, while Tarkeel/Civac did the bare minimum of staying out of the way. Individually, I'd be cautious too. Tarkeel and I did some nifty stuff in PB58 (one of my proudest games!), but in reality that game was won when Superdeath randomly attacked Jowy, not for anything specific that we did. Meanwhile, Civac had one of the 'winning' start positions in PB56 (and little should be taken from that game in general), while getting the dream position next to wide-eyed newcomer Amicalola in PB55. Anyway, none of this is to trash talk. I think this team is strong, one of the strongest in the game. But I'd place Miguelito/Ginger and Plemo/Piccadilly at a distinctly higher tier, and I'd predict Tarkeel/Civac win the prize for most overrated team based on past performance (possibly competing with me, actually
).Mjmd - Julius Caesar (Imp/Org) of Zulu (Impi, Ikhanda, Agriculture/Hunting)
Ok, this one is a little more exciting. Julius Caesar is a very Mjmd pick (he and Naufragar share the one true love of Imp, it seems), and Zulu is interesting given he also picked them for PB65 - he must be convinced. I like them too, they're one of the civs I regret not trying, as Ikhandas seem extremely strong, and enabling of a fun conquest-style of gameplay. The techs, as we discovered in PB64, are appalling in CtH, as they are so cheap you could just research them in time anyway - yuck to that. But overall, I think this is a strong pick, and the Ikhandas give it a bit of zest.
Mjmd is really lovely guy, and makes an impressive maple syrup. In civ, Mjmd is one of the best players to have not won a game. He seems to have a pattern of establishing an decent foodhammer lead, and then wasting it somehow. Sometimes that's his fault (PB62), sometimes it's not (PB63), but the pattern is there regardless. I'd place it down to a poor perception of other players' goals and positions. It seems like frequently, Mjmd will decide on what a 'good' border will look like, and expect other players to come to the same conclusion working with wildly different information and motivations. Worse, Mjmd has no issue with ruining his own game to spite someone else who fails to reach that mutual conclusion, and for that reason he can be a terrible neighbour. The pick certainly suggests a similar pattern here.
Vanrober - Zara Yaqob (Cre/Org) of Mongolia (Keshik, Ger, Hunting/Wheel)
This pick is closer to Mjmd's than Tarkeel/Civac's. It's a boring [expansion]/ORG leader, but with an aggressive Civ that lends itself to a bit of spice. I don't think vanrober is the type of player to rush someone with HAs given the choice, so instead I'd expect him to attack someone with SuperKnights rather than use the keshiks. But keshiks are great, gers are great, the techs could be great; I like it all!
Vanrober is yet another lovely person, and a good player hampered by a lack of confidence. I expect him to plan out a careful micro and follow it to the letter, expanding well. Whether he then expands into another player mostly depends on how invested he is in the game, I suspect. I hope he does well, though!
Alhazard - Napoleon (Cha/Org) of Egypt (War Chariot, Obelisk, Agriculture/Wheel)
'But Amicalola, why is Alhazard in this group? Charismatic isn't an expansion trait.' But that, dear lurker, is where I'm afraid I have to disagree. Sure, it's not as good as Cre/Exp/Imp, but that's why Cha gets the experience as well. The monuments are decent, but really what I'm talking about is the happiness, which makes it much easier to whip civilians in the early game before luxuries are established. You can have taller cities, or you can break the 10-turn whip cycle. Alternatively, it lets you skip garrisons in backline cities earlier. That all adds up over time. Anyway, I like this pick too, as far as winning. Napoleon of War Chariots can bully anyone away from an early contested city, and the techs are decent assuming a landlocked start. Sure, the UB is a null entity, but War Chariots probably make up for that alone. I'm sold.
Alhazard is a total wildcard to me. If anyone can fill me in on past history, I'd be into that.
The Power Levellers
Miguelito + Ginger - Asoka (Org/Spi) of The Holy Roman Empire (Landschnekt, Rathaus, Hunting/Mysticism)
This is a slooooow pick. Amicalola loves slow picks!
But seriously, Asoka has no expansion traits, and neither does the Holy Roman Empire with those terrible techs. I suppose maybe if they're in a start like mine they'll get an early lighthouse, and that's not nothing, but it's not great either. Of course, Spiritual and Organised and Rathaus' all reward a large empire, so if these guys can manage to get big somehow, they've probably already won.Miguelito is really, really good. Having read each of the threads (and with a good grasp of at least my own game), I'd say Miguelito pretty clearly played the 'best' game of the PB59 contenders. Who, I realise now, are all in this one! That's fun. Anyway, Mig is great at civ, if prone to morale shocks. Ginger is great at building, although pretty new to pitboss war, which is where it gets really different to ladder play. But Miguelito can cover that, if PB63 wasn't enough experience (it probably was), and having a dedlurker seems to help with the morale problems. I'd say this team is either first- or second-best here, and between that and their pick I'd call them the tentative favourites.
JackRB - Lieu-Ye (Org/Pro) of Carthage (Numidian Cavalry, Cothon, Fishing/Mining)
Hey, it's me! So we won this game, but that was entirely because of Lieu-Ye, not Carthage. In fact, Carthage might as well have said 'Fishing/Mining civ.' We didn't build a single Numidian, and Cothons were only worth it in Size 15+ cities due to the trade mechanics. So I don't think this pick is synergistic at all. Lieu-Ye is very strong by herself though, so I don't hate it.
JackRB is a bit of a mystery to me. I haven't followed him closely, but it seems as though he's played well, but not competed for the win, in both of his games here. Hopefully the third time is the charm, it's nice to have new players around.
Superdeath - Hammurabi (Agg/Org) of Vikings (Berserker, Trading Post, Fishing/Hunting)
This is the opposite of all the other Organised picks. It's terrible, but boy is it exciting at the same time! If Superdeath can micro the hell out of his start, and not fall behind by the time he gets to Civil Service and Machinery, he might get to raze a few coastal cities with berserkers (I'm not sure he'd be able to do much more than that, actually). But man, I bet it would feel good to do it. I hope it works! Just on someone who isn't me.
Superdeath is difficult to rate, and it's all been said a million times before. I feel like there's a somewhat universal opinion of SD - everyone likes him, and everyone has burst a blood vessel playing civ with him. I share this opinion. SD makes moves that I don't understand even in hindsight, and like Mjmd, has a pretty distinct pattern. That being: ruin someone else's game over a grudge (real or sometimes imagined) at the cost of his own game too. As such, neighbouring SD is a real mixed bag; sometimes, he leaves you alone and wins you the game (PB58 Tarkeel/Amica), sometimes he attacks you for no reason and with no chance of success (PB58 Jowy), and sometimes he manages both in one game (PB60 Amica). To be honest, I'd rather start on the other side of the map and avoid the stress. But as always, I hope this is the game he breaks the pattern!
The one thing I would add while I'm on my SD-specific soapbox: I imagine some people would value SD's playstyle because it breeds fear, which could let SD get away with things other players couldn't. This is silly. SD's playstyle means that as soon as anyone has an advantage over him, they attack him with extreme prejudice, because he can't be trusted as a safe backline. The aggressive, backstabbing playstyle is counterproductive from a meta perspective because it makes alliances impossible. Ok, back to the more general soapbox now.
The Villains
Piccadilly + plemo - Tokugawa (Agg/Pro) of Rome (Praetorian, Forum, Fishing/Mining)
Two of Civforum's best players joining our roughly 'RB-average' game with an Aggressive Rome pick?
Sounds like villains to me. Tokugawa of Rome is another pick that does not spark joy. Sure, this team would suck to neighbour, but they will have very little help expanding (Pro is sort of an expansion trait, but in the Cha vein of 'sort of'). So they'll need to do good micro to get ahead and use those praetorians effectively. If the start is similar to ours, these are fairly objectively the best techs, so that could help them get ahead. I'm not sure they need the help; Plemo and Piccadilly are a scary team. Plemo seems to be fairly unequivocally Civforum's best player, having convincingly won every game he's played over there (and, somewhat questionably, absolutely stomped a greens game here). Self-perception issues aside
, I haven't read a Plemo thread but I assume he's calculating, detail-oriented, all the good-Civ-player things. Piccadilly is a little less unstoppable, but played a hell of a game in PB59 and is a great player in his own right. As players, I think this team is easily the strongest here; I'm just not sold on their pick. I can't wait for them to prove me wrong. But do it to someone else, please. The Misc. Category
Magic Science - Sulieman (Imp/Phi) of Greece (Hoplite, Odeon, Fishing/Hunting)
Yuck. I dunno what this pick is, but I don't like it. I'm not sold on PHI - I get that it's amazing in the right situation, but it's so dependent on what the others players do. Rushing the Pyramids for an early engineer? Oop, someone else wanted it more. Rushing MC? Oop, someone else got Construction and you're dead. Just using libraries? Well, ok, but that's pretty slow. Anyway, I get that it's good, I just think it's not for me. I think Imp is worse than Exp except in fairly niche circumstances, particularly small maps, and I don't think this is small enough to qualify. Greece, at least, is excellent. The Hoplite is busted in its current form, enough that the Odeon's relative weakness doesn't matter much. With seafood, the techs are passable too. But Suleiman? Yuck.
Magic Science is the other wildcard. I like that they're actively lurking the others games, at least.
GeneralKillCavalry - Kublai Khan (Agg/Cre) of America (Minuteman, Carnegie Library, Agriculture/Fishing)
Kublai Khan is an interesting choice, given that GKC also played him in their last game. That one didn't work out too well, but I don't think GKC was too engaged. I wonder if that will change here. Anyway, KK is one of the better Aggressive leaders, in my opinion. But I've never actually played with Creative, so I can't really judge how good (or not) it is. America seems great with the new library, I wonder if Charriu's slightly overtuned that in an effort to make the civ playable, and GKC gets Carnegie's for cheap with Cre. Minutemen I'm not sold on, but I haven't seen them in action. If drafted, it'll be really hard to get more than one promotion on them, so Guerilla3 or Guerilla2+Woodsman2 super-muskets will be difficult to create efficiently. But I'd love it to work out, it's cool!
GKC, as mentioned, seems to have been relatively disinterested in their recent games. I don't know though whether the disinterest is because of weak positions, or vice versa. Probably a feedback loop between both, if I had to guess. But I think they did well in some of the games before my time, so I'm not counting them out. I'm just not expecting too much, and hoping that I'll be pleasantly surprised.
So, in sum, I think this is going to be a very interesting game. As in most modern Civ4 games, there are no obvious minnows, or at least very few. Which means some of the better players will likely be invaded relatively early, and there's too many favourites for them all to perform well. I wonder how many of us will still be alive by the end of it...
EVERYBODY STOP! 
Although, I am missing a warrior in the second one, with 3 cities (supposedly) on the map. Maybe I need to keep tinkering... 
