Insane Cop Posse lurker thread

[Bigger]

As far as I can see from the rules. every cop is allowed to scan himself. That would give them quite a good hint about their own sanity.

Yes...at the cost of no useful information for the rest of the village. Remember 2 out of 4 villagers will be dead before you get a second scan result, as well, unless you straight up win day 1, so there's a decent chance your sanity info doesn't help.

scanning yourself isn't a bad idea, you go from 4 possible sanities to 2 regardless of results. (if you scan guilty then you're either insane or paranoid, if innocent either sane or naive). it isn't possible to deduce who the scum is from results after night 0 anyway, that won't happen until the 2nd day (a day one scum lynch would be due to traditional scum hunting).

all 4 cops night 0 info will be useful, as long as they reveal their results before they die (which they should, all 5 people should be forced to claim, no benefit to holding onto the info).

[Rowain]

As far as I can see from the rules. every cop is allowed to scan himself. That would give them quite a good hint about their own sanity.

Yes...at the cost of no useful information for the rest of the village. Remember 2 out of 4 villagers will be dead before you get a second scan result, as well, unless you straight up win day 1, so there's a decent chance your sanity info doesn't help.

Every seer does that and reveals. If you get 2 guilty but 3 ok- results (or vice versa) you know in which group the scum is. If someone doesn't do it that way lynch him.
Oh and the village lynches of course one member of the 3 people group. Should give you a 50:50 chance to find scum on day 2 without any scans. And quite posible to get the scum with scans.

Do note that that doesn't any talking beforehand. This way should be obvious for any villager.

[Bigger]

As far as I can see from the rules. every cop is allowed to scan himself. That would give them quite a good hint about their own sanity.

Yes...at the cost of no useful information for the rest of the village. Remember 2 out of 4 villagers will be dead before you get a second scan result, as well, unless you straight up win day 1, so there's a decent chance your sanity info doesn't help.

Every seer does that and reveals. If you get 2 guilty but 3 ok- results (or vice versa) you know in which group the scum is. If someone doesn't do it that way lynch him.
Oh and the village lynches of course one member of the 3 people group. Should give you a 50:50 chance to find scum on day 2 without any scans. And quite posible to get the scum with scans.

Do note that that doesn't any talking beforehand. This way should be obvious for any villager.

this is good in theory, but the problem is it requires coordination between the village on night 0, before any talking between the village is allowed.

[NobleHelium]

So who tried to scan Lewwyn?

[Cyneheard]

Fascinating. We've got two double-scans. And Tasunke is too quick to put Qgqqqqq in the clear: if he was scanned by an Insane Brick, then he's scum, and we still have a workable solution.

Key:
W = Scum (WOLF!)
N = Naive
P = Paranoid
S = Sane
I = Insane
T = Town
(A, B, C) = The person on the far left is one of those possible cops.

Initial assumptions:
Qgqqqqq: (P, I, W) IF Mattimeo is T; (P, S) IF Mattimeo is W
Uberfish: (N, S, W) IF Mattimeo is T; (N, I) IF Mattimeo is W
Tasunke: (P, I, W) IF Uberfish is T; (P, S) IF Uberfish is W
Mattimeo: (N, S, W) IF Uberfish is T; (N, I) IF Uberfish is W
BrickAstley: (N, S, W) IF Qgqqqqq is T; (N, I) IF Qgqqqqq is W

Assume Tasunke or Brick are W (therefore all scans were of Townsfolk):
Qgqqqqq and Tasunke are the P/I pair, therefore Tasunke is innocent.
So Brick would be W, and Uberfish/Mattimeo are the N/S pair.
Brick = W
Qgqqqqq: (P, I)
Tasunke: (P, I)
Uberfish: (N, S)
Mattimeo: (N, S)

Assume Qgqqqqq is W:
Uberfish: (N, S)
Tasunke: Paranoid
Mattimeo: (N, S)
BrickAstley: Insane

Assume Mattimeo is W:
Qgqqqqq: (P, S)
Uberfish: (N, I)
Tasunke: (P, I)
BrickAstley: (N, S)

Assume Uberfish is W:
Qgqqqqq: (N, S)
Tasunke: Paranoid
Mattimeo: Insane
BrickAstley: (N, S)

Final:
Qgqqqqq: (P, I, W) IF Mattimeo is T; (P, S) IF Mattimeo is W
Uberfish: (N, S, W) IF Mattimeo is T; (N, I) IF Mattimeo is W
Tasunke: (P, I) IF Uberfish is T; Paranoid IF Uberfish is W. Insane if and only if Mattimeo is W, Uberfish is N, Qgqqqqq is P, and BrickAstley is S.
Mattimeo: (N, S, W) IF Uberfish is T; Insane IF Uberfish is W
BrickAstley: (N, S, W) IF Qgqqqqq is T; Insane IF Qgqqqqq is W

Recommended lynch, assuming no scumtells: Brick. He's got 4 of the 10 possibilities (N/S and P/I pairs = 4 possibilities; the others only have 2. And our Bayesian prior was that all possibilities are equally likely, so the village has a 40% chance of winning today if Brick hangs).

Insane Cop Posse really needs a Chaotic Cop (random.org results) and to be a 6p game: it's too easy to solve the system. Night 0 would also be a nightkill, so there's still 3p LYLO on Day 2.

[Gazglum]

Wow...

I think I prefer the games where we lynch people because we don't like the cut of their jib.

[GaiusMarius]

Wow...

I think I prefer the games where we lynch people because we don't like the cut of their jib.

Meanwhile, I think I prefer the games that can be won with pure logic (with some educated guesses), and none of this "trying to figure out if people are actually telling the truth" stuff

But in all seriousness, a random cop sounds like it could be a nice addition to add a bit more uncertainty :D

[Rowain]

Do note that that doesn't any talking beforehand. This way should be obvious for any villager.

this is good in theory, but the problem is it requires coordination between the village on night 0, before any talking between the village is allowed.

See above. To make clear why that way is a good way to play.

If everyone scans himself and reveals scum has to chose either to claim he scanned somebody else (=lynch him) or he scanned himself and got good or evil as result. lets assume he claims good.
Now you lynch one of the 3 claiming good = 33% chance to hit scum right there.
During night 1 both that got Scum as result scan the same of the 2 remaining goodies. One of them dies.
This gives 4 possible combinations ( the surviving seer is either paranoid or insane . he scans either scum or seer.) One of this combination reveals the scum directly ( Insane seer scans scum). = 25% chance to win
If not he choses one of the remaining goddies (who will vote for each other) = 50% chance to hit right.

If you combine that you see that the chance to win for village is 75% (1-(0.66*0.75*0.5)). without any slouching done at all.

[zakalwe]

Everybody should be lynched, for failing to scan themselves!

@Gazglum. Agreed.

[Rowain]

I'm marvelling on the fact that Matt can post afterall. He has already 11 posts compared to the 30 he had when he was lynched on D3 in WW20