[Spoilers] Adrien and Mardoc relax and play civ

[AdrienIer]

Ok then let's just take the barb city and then wait for cats.

[Mardoc]

Yeah. It's frustrating - but then if hill cities with culture were easy to take, we'd already be dead. Sauce for the goose and all that

[Mardoc]

Arglebargle. Still three Vultures, we have 1 chariot + six axes. Which from my fiddling around with the combat calculator...should be close. Chariot + axe is a 67%ish win, 3 axes is a 85% win, and 2 axes is a 48% win, vs. 1 Vulture each time. If I did my arithmetic right, which is unlikely because I'm an engineer. And because I don't know the exact fortification, nor our exact HP on our two slightly wounded units.

But they've all got to come out good, there's a high likelihood he can whip another vulture EOT. Naively, multiply them all together and we're talking 1/4 chance of victory.

But there's always the chance one of our starters does well - chariot alone has 25%ish odds - in which case the odds for the rest get better. And my calculation is probably pessimistic because of fortification.

Maybe we should go for it? If it works, it's 3-4 axes for a city and three dead Vultures. If I had two more units to be sure of killing the survivors, I'd do it in a heartbeat.

But instead we're...close. And so I waffle.

I guess I could throw in the first unit or two, and see how they do. If they get massive damage, or a win, then we proceed with a clear conscience. If they don't, then we lose two units for nothing, but at least we don't have to say 'what if'.

Going to go to dinner and think. I'm pretty sure you're asleep, but if I'm wrong, feel free to weigh in.

[Mardoc]

Maybe I miscounted, and he can't whip another vulture this turn? maybe he chose to slip in a spear instead?

[AdrienIer]

It was worth a shot.

[Mardoc]

Thanks, I'm glad I wasn't totally foolish. Even if we did trade five units for two .

Just hoping that Jowy's one whip of the turn was somewhere else. If that turns out to be true, then we'll still pull it off. By the skin of our teeth

[AdrienIer]

Will our surviving axes get promos ?

[Mardoc]

Will our surviving axes get promos ?

Yes, the wounded one can take two promos, and the unwounded one can take one. The axe advancing from the rear is Shock as well. I think Jowy can only make one vulture in the next two turns, and we can hit it before it promotes. So I think we can get the city, either next turn with luck or in two turns with high probability. Hit the city next turn with both surviving axes, probably one dies to wound the unpromoted new vulture, one kills a vulture. Then in two turns, hit again with survivor plus reinforcement against probably one wounded vulture. That *should* manage. I think.

Still not enough power for me to be certain...if I had just piled on one more whip to bring one more axe initially...

Ah well. Spilled milk. Still wouldn't have any longrun hope even if we did win this battle, after all.

[AdrienIer]

It's alright we already made sure Fenn will win the island in the long term this is just about surviving a bit longer and helping our morale recover

[Thoth]

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