It's come to my attention that this seat vote leave by 60% and Jo Cox's sister is an ultra-remainer. Now it might look dumb to pick an ultra-remainer but if labour doesn't switch to remain Greens and Lib Dems will take their votes. So labour can chose were to lose; ether lose the median voter to the tories or lose via vote-splitting. There's no way to not have the median voter and not win but there's a solution to vote-spitting: PR. I'm pretty sure that Jo Cox's sister is going to lose but perhaps she'll be a successful martyr for PR. Batley and Spen Lean Labour-->Tilt Tory. Cannot go higher with Tories not winning this seat last time with no polling. IIRC, I made exception for Hartlepool but that was only because Tories should have won that seat last time but strong Brexit candidate split leave vote.
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Brexit Political Discussion Thread
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Labour has crashed and burned on PredictIt due to George Galloway. Still no polling but this can override because Tories would have won of Galloway ran last time. Tilt-->Lean Tory.
Not much. Labour only got a pathetic 622 votes. For reference the English Democrats got 969 votes in the 2016 Batley and Spen by-election which was not competitive and much poorer, which suppresses turnout. Tories just have to beat Labour.
Well it looks like Labour wins. For the GE I guess the left wins if they go for PR and loses otherwise.
Scotland will try indyref 2. I predict tories will block because they know they would lose. Polling shows tossup but SNP would win because Tories and Labour campaigns would be crippled. Tories because a good chuck views SNP as Labour seats because SNP would prop up Labour. And Labour because they cannot actually deliver because, if they do, England would demand a parliament of their own which Labour has no chance of winning or applying any pressure on. Tories can win with Scotland voting against them but Labour cannot, so they will have to allow indyref 2 and lose. Better for Labour to take the blame.
Scotland leaving was going to happen as soon as Brexit won. Now, before that, things looked bad for Labour but they would have been able to win because Tories were foolishly starting to shift on Scotland and trying to be competitive ie giving it speical treatment. This would allow Labour to shift to giving more speical treatment and chip away at SNP while getting let off the hook in England. Throwing the Union under the bus was hard and the Tories were only able to do it due to being smashed by Blair (in their first two elections against him they only got one non-English seat and that MP appeared on tv to argue against Holyrood). They should have been obsessed with stopping Brexit because Tories would have destroyed themselves, via Scotland (this situation is similar to Québec and the 1993 election) , and picked someone other than Corbyn. 
So I know that the situation is bad right now in the UK and I feel really sorry for them, especially those that did not want this. At the same time I can't hold this gem of a comment back.
https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2021-10/t...lkw-fahren This is from a German newspaper about the shortages in the UK. Looks like the UK government contacted Germans based in the UK by mail, who still own an older drivers license which allows them to drive some trucks. This is a response of one of those Germans: Quote:"If we had gone to Germany, we would probably never have been recruited as truck drivers by headhunters." For the time being, he wants to keep his job at an investment bank, his wife has never driven a bigger car than a Volvo and will probably turn down the "exciting opportunity". The original German comment in spoilers
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This is what leave voters voted for though. Higher wages due to less pressure due to competition for the jobs.
Hell Boris even said that at the Tory Conference the other day. I don't feel like anything is bad. Fuel hilarity hasn't even touched us. But then I've been preparing for this for years. (October 4th, 2021, 16:36)Krill Wrote: This is what leave voters voted for though. Higher wages due to less pressure due to competition for the jobs. Which could have been accomplished without leaving the EU. Measures could have been taken within the framework of the EU and unilaterally by the UK to reduce the reliance on imported cheap foreign labour. Of course, that cheap labour kept prices suppressed. Now wages are going up, but so too is inflation. Real-term income isn't actually increasing. Maybe eventually things will balance out, but it wasn't done cleanly, or with any kind of long-term plan on the part of the government, and the short-term damage is already happening. And it's more likely that business pressure will force the government to further expand and extend visa schemes for workers across every sector. |
